How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mutations in lectin complement pathway genes COLEC11 and MASP1 cause 3MC syndrome

3MC syndrome has been proposed as a unifying term encompassing the overlapping Carnevale, Mingarelli, Malpuech and Michels syndromes. These rare autosomal recessive disorders exhibit a spectrum of developmental features, including characteristic facial dysmorphism, cleft lip and/or palate, craniosynostosis, learning disability and genital, limb and vesicorenal anomalies. Here we studied 11 families with 3MC syndrome and identified two mutated genes, COLEC11 and MASP1, both of which encode proteins in the lectin complement pathway (collectin kidney 1 (CL-K1) and MASP-1 and MASP-3, respectively). CL-K1 is highly expressed in embryonic murine craniofacial cartilage, heart, bronchi, kidney and vertebral bodies. Zebrafish morphants for either gene develop pigmentary defects and severe craniofacial abnormalities. Finally, we show that CL-K1 serves as a guidance cue for neural crest cell migration. Together, these findings demonstrate a role for complement pathway factors in fundamental developmental processes and in the etiology of 3MC syndrome.     

Changes in fisheries discard rates and seabird communities

It is clear that discards from commercial fisheries are a key food resource for many seabird species around the world. But predicting the response of seabird communities to changes in discard rates is problematic and requires historical data to elucidate the confounding effects of other, more 'natural' ecological processes. In the North Sea, declining stocks, changes in technical measures, changes in population structure and the establishment of a recovery programme for cod (Gadus morhua) will alter the amount of fish discarded. This region also supports internationally important populations of seabirds, some of which feed extensively, but facultatively, on discards, in particular on undersized haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus). Here we use long-term data sets from the northern North Sea to show that there is a direct link between discard availability and discard use by a generalist predator and scavenger--the great skua (Stercorarius skua). Reduced rates of discarding, particularly when coupled with reduced availability of small shoaling pelagic fish such as sandeel (Ammodytes marinus), result in an increase in predation by great skuas on other birds. This switching of prey by a facultative scavenger presents a potentially serious threat to some seabird communities.     

Autoradiographic localization of 5-hydroxytryptamine in monkey pineal gland

Zusammenfassung Die Verteilung von aus 5-Hydroxy-Tryptophan entstandenem Serotonin in der Zirbeldrüse von Affen wird beschrieben.     

Successful establishment of Wolbachia in Aedes populations to suppress dengue transmission

Genetic manipulations of insect populations for pest control have been advocated for some time, but there are few cases where manipulated individuals have been released in the field and no cases where they have successfully invaded target populations. Population transformation using the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia is particularly attractive because this maternally-inherited agent provides a powerful mechanism to invade natural populations through cytoplasmic incompatibility. When Wolbachia are introduced into mosquitoes, they interfere with pathogen transmission and influence key life history traits such as lifespan. Here we describe how the wMel Wolbachia infection, introduced into the dengue vector Aedes aegypti from Drosophila melanogaster, successfully invaded two natural A. aegypti populations in Australia, reaching near-fixation in a few months following releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti adults. Models with plausible parameter values indicate that Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes suffered relatively small fitness costs, leading to an unstable equilibrium frequency <30% that must be exceeded for invasion. These findings demonstrate that Wolbachia-based strategies can be deployed as a practical approach to dengue suppression with potential for area-wide implementation.     

Requirement for the replication protein SSB in human DNA excision repair

Replication and repair are essential processes that maintain the continuity of the genetic material. Dissection of simian virus 40 (SV40) DNA replication has resulted in the identification of many eukaryotic replication proteins, but the biochemistry of the multienzyme process of DNA excision repair is less well defined. One protein that is absolutely required for semiconservative replication of SV40 DNA in vitro is human single-stranded DNA-binding protein (SSB, also called RF-A and RP-A). SSB consists of three polypeptides of relative molecular mass 70,000, 34,000 and 13,000, and acts with T antigen and topoisomerases to unwind DNA, allowing the access of other replication proteins. Human SSB can also stimulate the activity of polymerases alpha and delta, suggesting a further role in elongation during DNA replication. We have now found a role for human SSB in DNA excision repair using a cell-free system that can carry out nucleotide excision repair in vitro. Monoclonal antibodies against human SSB caused extensive inhibition of DNA repair in plasmid molecules damaged by ultraviolet light or acetylaminofluorene. Addition of purified SSB reversed this inhibition and further stimulated repair synthesis by increasing the number of repair events. These results show that a mammalian DNA replication protein is also essential for repair.     

The inhibitory effects of anti-androgen (SH-714) on erythropoietic activity

Zusammenfassung Der erythropoietische stimulierende Effekt von Depo-Testosteron-Zyklopentylpropionat in plethorischen Mäusen kann durch ein neues Antiandrogenpräparat (Cyproteronazetat — SH-714) verhindert werden. Dasselbe Präparat verhindert in plethorischen Mäusen ebenfalls die nach einer Standarddosis von Erythropoietin erwartete Blutneubildung.