Risk reduction in a project portfolio

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.     

A hierarchical multiple criteria model for eliciting relative preferences in conflict situations

A multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA) approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in a conflict.More specifically,an MCDA approach based on the outranking method,ELECTRE III,is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred,where ties are allowed,for a decision maker according to his or her value system.To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution,it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford,located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.     

A complementary transposon tool kit for Drosophila melanogaster using P and piggyBac

With the availability of complete genome sequence for Drosophila melanogaster, one of the next strategic goals for fly researchers is a complete gene knockout collection. The P-element transposon, the workhorse of D. melanogaster molecular genetics, has a pronounced nonrandom insertion spectrum. It has been estimated that 87% saturation of the approximately 13,500-gene complement of D. melanogaster might require generating and analyzing up to 150,000 insertions. We describe specific improvements to the lepidopteran transposon piggyBac and the P element that enabled us to tag and disrupt genes in D. melanogaster more efficiently. We generated over 29,000 inserts resulting in 53% gene saturation and a more diverse collection of phenotypically stronger insertional alleles. We found that piggyBac has distinct global and local gene-tagging behavior from that of P elements. Notably, piggyBac excisions from the germ line are nearly always precise, piggyBac does not share chromosomal hotspots associated with P and piggyBac is more effective at gene disruption because it lacks the P bias for insertion in 5' regulatory sequences.     

Dynamics of human adipose lipid turnover in health and metabolic disease

Adipose tissue mass is determined by the storage and removal of triglycerides in adipocytes. Little is known, however, about adipose lipid turnover in humans in health and pathology. To study this in vivo, here we determined lipid age by measuring (14)C derived from above ground nuclear bomb tests in adipocyte lipids. We report that during the average ten-year lifespan of human adipocytes, triglycerides are renewed six times. Lipid age is independent of adipocyte size, is very stable across a wide range of adult ages and does not differ between genders. Adipocyte lipid turnover, however, is strongly related to conditions with disturbed lipid metabolism. In obesity, triglyceride removal rate (lipolysis followed by oxidation) is decreased and the amount of triglycerides stored each year is increased. In contrast, both lipid removal and storage rates are decreased in non-obese patients diagnosed with the most common hereditary form of dyslipidaemia, familial combined hyperlipidaemia. Lipid removal rate is positively correlated with the capacity of adipocytes to break down triglycerides, as assessed through lipolysis, and is inversely related to insulin resistance. Our data support a mechanism in which adipocyte lipid storage and removal have different roles in health and pathology. High storage but low triglyceride removal promotes fat tissue accumulation and obesity. Reduction of both triglyceride storage and removal decreases lipid shunting through adipose tissue and thus promotes dyslipidaemia. We identify adipocyte lipid turnover as a novel target for prevention and treatment of metabolic disease.     

Critical considerations in the development of systems thinking and practice

This paper is concerned with the development of ‘Systems Thinking.’ In particular, it considers and critiques ‘traditional Systems Thinking’ within the framework of Critical Systems Thinking. Before embarking on such a venture it is necessary to derive a base context from which to develop argument and analysis. Therefore the outline of this paper is as follows: A contextual setting for Systems Thinking, Theoretical Considerations, Soft Systems Thinking and Methodology, and A Critical Systems Thinking (CST) approach. The account of the development of Systems Thinking is followed by a synopsis of a theoretical framework for Systems Thinking which will allow us to gain an understanding of contemporary views. The paper then goes on to review SSM and CST in order to provide a platform for a critique of traditional forms of Systems Thinking. The final section briefly discusses the applicability of CST to the ‘real-world’ context by outlining some current studies being undertaken by the author.     

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

Functional connectivity in the retina at the resolution of photoreceptors

To understand a neural circuit requires knowledge of its connectivity. Here we report measurements of functional connectivity between the input and ouput layers of the macaque retina at single-cell resolution and the implications of these for colour vision. Multi-electrode technology was used to record simultaneously from complete populations of the retinal ganglion cell types (midget, parasol and small bistratified) that transmit high-resolution visual signals to the brain. Fine-grained visual stimulation was used to identify the location, type and strength of the functional input of each cone photoreceptor to each ganglion cell. The populations of ON and OFF midget and parasol cells each sampled the complete population of long- and middle-wavelength-sensitive cones. However, only OFF midget cells frequently received strong input from short-wavelength-sensitive cones. ON and OFF midget cells showed a small non-random tendency to selectively sample from either long- or middle-wavelength-sensitive cones to a degree not explained by clumping in the cone mosaic. These measurements reveal computations in a neural circuit at the elementary resolution of individual neurons.     

Terahertz-field-induced insulator-to-metal transition in vanadium dioxide metamaterial

Electron-electron interactions can render an otherwise conducting material insulating, with the insulator-metal phase transition in correlated-electron materials being the canonical macroscopic manifestation of the competition between charge-carrier itinerancy and localization. The transition can arise from underlying microscopic interactions among the charge, lattice, orbital and spin degrees of freedom, the complexity of which leads to multiple phase-transition pathways. For example, in many transition metal oxides, the insulator-metal transition has been achieved with external stimuli, including temperature, light, electric field, mechanical strain or magnetic field. Vanadium dioxide is particularly intriguing because both the lattice and on-site Coulomb repulsion contribute to the insulator-to-metal transition at 340?K (ref. 8). Thus, although the precise microscopic origin of the phase transition remains elusive, vanadium dioxide serves as a testbed for correlated-electron phase-transition dynamics. Here we report the observation of an insulator-metal transition in vanadium dioxide induced by a terahertz electric field. This is achieved using metamaterial-enhanced picosecond, high-field terahertz pulses to reduce the Coulomb-induced potential barrier for carrier transport. A nonlinear metamaterial response is observed through the phase transition, demonstrating that high-field terahertz pulses provide alternative pathways to induce collective electronic and structural rearrangements. The metamaterial resonators play a dual role, providing sub-wavelength field enhancement that locally drives the nonlinear response, and global sensitivity to the local changes, thereby enabling macroscopic observation of the dynamics. This methodology provides a powerful platform to investigate low-energy dynamics in condensed matter and, further, demonstrates that integration of metamaterials with complex matter is a viable pathway to realize functional nonlinear electromagnetic composites.