Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

铸造工艺仿真设计前处理及过程处理应用技术

以应用ProCAST和MAGMAsoft 2款软件为例，针对铸造工艺仿真设计前处理和过程处理每个环节的主要内容与使用方法进行了较为详细地归纳、分析和总结。提出了处理过程的技术路线，并系统地介绍了每项应用内容的操作平台与使用步骤，从而为高效地应用铸造工艺仿真设计提供理论和技术支持。     

The modernity of Dedekind’s anticipations contained in What are numbers and what are they good for?

Archive for History of Exact Sciences - We show that Dedekind, in his proof of the principle of definition by mathematical recursion, used implicitly both the concept of an inductive cone from an...     

The expansion of GPCR transactivation-dependent signalling to include serine/threonine kinase receptors represents a new cell signalling frontier

G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) signalling is mediated through transactivation-independent signalling pathways or the transactivation of protein tyrosine kinase receptors and the recently reported activation of the serine/threonine kinase receptors, most notably the transforming growth factor-β receptor family. Since the original observation of GPCR transactivation of protein tyrosine kinase receptors, there has been considerable work on the mechanism of transactivation and several pathways are prominent. These pathways include the “triple membrane bypass” pathway and the generation of reactive oxygen species. The recent recognition of GPCR transactivation of serine/threonine kinase receptors enormously broadens the GPCR signalling paradigm. It may be predicted that the transactivation of serine/threonine kinase receptors would have mechanistic similarities with transactivation of tyrosine kinase pathways; however, initial studies suggest that these two transactivation pathways are mechanistically distinct. Important questions are the relative importance of tyrosine and serine/threonine transactivation pathways, the contribution of transactivation to overall GPCR signalling, mechanisms of transactivation and the range of cell types in which this phenomenon occurs. The ultimate significance of transactivation-dependent signalling remains to be defined but it appears to be prominent and if so will represent a new cell signalling frontier.     

浅谈功率因数的补偿及其应用

根据我国当前电力系统运行情况，对电网无功功率补偿的必要性及通用补偿方法及其装置进行了具体阐述。