多元条件密度函数的投影追踪估计方法

由多元条件密度函数fYX(yx)(x∈Rp)可以知道许多被解释变量Y对解释变量X的回归关系的信息,其条件期望就是回归函数,条件方差就是回归误差项的条件方差.为了克服高维空间数据稀松性带来的估计上的困难,提出多元条件密度函数的投影追踪估计方法,通过最小化Ku llback-Le ib ler距离,得到了最优初始条件密度函数和每一步的增量函数和方向向量,还给出了估计步骤及其终止法则.     

Development of City Transport System and Two-wheel Vehicles

Based on the study on the city transport systems of some typical cities worldwide, this paper put forward that each city transport system has its own development mode, which is influenced by the city development plan, economic development level, traveling vehicle composition etc.. When some problems occur, such as the congestions caused by contradiction between the road capacity and vehicle composition, the city transport system may come into temporary maturity period. If the improvement for road system is limited meanwhile, optimized structure of vehicle composition should be an effective solution in this case. With the development of economy-internationalization, the development speed of city transport modernization is rapid. When traveling easiness is conflicting with efficiency, the advantages of public transport system become more obvious. Correspondingly, the superiority of two-wheel vehicles will reappear. Though the important function of two-wheel vehicles for alleviating city traffic problems i     

Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models

Three general classes of state space models are presented, using the single source of error formulation. The first class is the standard linear model with homoscedastic errors, the second retains the linear structure but incorporates a dynamic form of heteroscedasticity, and the third allows for non‐linear structure in the observation equation as well as heteroscedasticity. These three classes provide stochastic models for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. We use these classes to provide exact analytic (matrix) expressions for forecast error variances that can be used to construct prediction intervals one or multiple steps ahead. These formulas are reduced to non‐matrix expressions for 15 state space models that underlie the most common exponential smoothing methods. We discuss relationships between our expressions and previous suggestions for finding forecast error variances and prediction intervals for exponential smoothing methods. Simpler approximations are developed for the more complex schemes and their validity examined. The paper concludes with a numerical example using a non‐linear model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting

Croston's method is widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Highest-density forecast regions for nonlinear and non-normal time series models

Forecast regions are a common way to summarize forecast accuracy. They usually consist of an interval symmetric about the forecast mean. However, symmetric intervals may not be appropriate forecast regions when the forecast density is not symmetric and unimodal. With many modern time series models, such as those which are non-linear or have non-normal errors, the forecast densities are often asymmetric or multimodal. The problem of obtaining forecast regions in such cases is considered and it is proposed that highest-density forecast regions be used. A graphical method for presenting the results is discussed.     

Rapid Manufacturing of Non-Assembly Complex Micro-Devices by Microstereolithography

This paper introduces a non-assembly manufacturing case with microstereolithography technology. The design and manufacturing process of a pneumatic thrust bearing is described, and a special tessellation method is developed to further improve the capability of the manufacturing system thus bigger products can also be easily manufactured. Implemented in a layer-by-layer fashion, stereolithography has been used for the rapid manufacturing of complex devices, and it avoids the expensive assembly process in the traditional manufacturing. This paper presents that microstereolithography can produce high-resolution products with intricate details, small openings, and smooth surfaces. The potential of the microstereolithograhy technique is explored for the rapid manufacturing of small and complex objects.     

Reflection signature of seismic and aseismic slip on the northern Cascadia subduction interface

At the northern Cascadia margin, the Juan de Fuca plate is underthrusting North America at about 45 mm x yr(-1) (ref. 1), resulting in the potential for destructive great earthquakes. The downdip extent of coupling between the two plates is difficult to determine because the most recent such earthquake (thought to have been in 1700) occurred before instrumental recording. Thermal and deformation studies indicate that, off southern Vancouver Island, the interplate interface is presently fully locked for a distance of approximately 60 km downdip from the deformation front. Great thrust earthquakes on this section of the interface (with magnitudes of up to 9) have been estimated to occur at an average interval of about 590 yr (ref. 3). Further downdip there is a transition from fully locked behaviour to aseismic sliding (where high temperatures allow ductile deformation), with the deep aseismic zone exhibiting slow-slip thrust events. Here we show that there is a change in the reflection character on seismic images from a thin sharp reflection where the subduction thrust is inferred to be locked, to a broad reflection band at greater depth where aseismic slip is thought to be occurring. This change in reflection character may provide a new technique to map the landward extent of rupture in great earthquakes and improve the characterization of seismic hazards in subduction zones.     

Decreased stability of methane hydrates in marine sediments owing to phase-boundary roughness

Below water depths of about 300 metres, pressure and temperature conditions cause methane to form ice-like crystals of methane hydrate. Marine deposits of methane hydrate are estimated to be large, amassing about 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon, and are thought to be important to global change and seafloor stability, as well as representing a potentially exploitable energy resource. The extent of these deposits can usually be inferred from seismic imaging, in which the base of the methane hydrate stability zone is frequently identifiable as a smooth reflector that runs parallel to the sea floor. Here, using high-resolution seismic sections of seafloor sediments in the Cascadia margin off the coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, we observe lateral variations in the base of the hydrate stability zone, including gas-rich vertical intrusions into the hydrate stability zone. We suggest that these vertical intrusions are associated with upward flow of warmer fluids. Therefore, where seafloor fluid expulsion and methane hydrate deposits coincide, the base of the hydrate stability zone might exhibit significant roughness and increased surface area. Increased area implies that significantly more methane hydrate lies close to being unstable and hence closer to dissociation in the event of a lowering of pressure due to sea-level fall.     

An inverted continental Moho and serpentinization of the forearc mantle

Volatiles that are transported by subducting lithospheric plates to depths greater than 100 km are thought to induce partial melting in the overlying mantle wedge, resulting in arc magmatism and the addition of significant quantities of material to the overlying lithosphere. Asthenospheric flow and upwelling within the wedge produce increased lithospheric temperatures in this back-arc region, but the forearc mantle (in the corner of the wedge) is thought to be significantly cooler. Here we explore the structure of the mantle wedge in the southern Cascadia subduction zone using scattered teleseismic waves recorded on a dense portable array of broadband seismometers. We find very low shear-wave velocities in the cold forearc mantle indicated by the exceptional occurrence of an 'inverted' continental Moho, which reverts to normal polarity seaward of the Cascade arc. This observation provides compelling evidence for a highly hydrated and serpentinized forearc region, consistent with thermal and petrological models of the forearc mantle wedge. This serpentinized material is thought to have low strength and may therefore control the down-dip rupture limit of great thrust earthquakes, as well as the nature of large-scale flow in the mantle wedge.