Maxwell's role in turning the concept of model into the methodology of modeling

This is a contribution towards a history and philosophy of modeling in its early stages in electromagnetism. In 1873, James Clerk Maxwell (1831–1879) hinted at the methodology of modeling at the end of his Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism. We focus on Maxwell's impact on physicists who immediately followed him, specifically Oliver Lodge (1851–1940) and George Francis FitzGerald (1851–1901). We begin with the role that the scientific concept of model played in the late nineteenth century, as assessed by Ludwig Boltzmann (1844–1906). We then discuss the role of hypothesis as a methodology, the appeal to (dynamical) illustration, and the way Maxwell applied model and working model in his studies of electromagnetism. We show that for Maxwell these key terms were kept distinct, but Lodge did not maintain these distinctions and, in this regard, FitzGerald followed Lodge. Notwithstanding Lodge's influence, Fitzgerald modified Maxwell's theory based on the mechanical model he designed, thereby implicitly taking the first step towards modeling. This methodology consists in drawing consequences from the (mechanical) model to the (electrodynamic) theory and modifying the latter in light of the functioning of the former. At the core of our argument is the thesis that it was a methodological novelty to move from the concept of model to the methodology of modeling. The introduction of modeling as a new methodology into physics in the late nineteenth century was a major event which deserves proper recognition.     

谈“十四五”生态保护与绿色发展的生态关系

 从“十四五”保护与发展的生态关系角度，探讨了生态保护与绿色发展的十大生态关系，阐述了生态保护和绿色发展中的一系列有关生态关系的生态智慧及生态技术，并对长江、黄河等流域的生态保护和修复提出了相关建议。     

Little-known and phylogenetically obscure South African estuarine microgastropods (Mollusca: Truncatelloidea) as living animals

Areas of the Knysna estuarine bay in the Western Cape are dominated by three endemic South African truncatelloid microgastropods, temporarily known as ‘Hydrobia’ knysnaensis (Krauss), ‘Assiminea’ capensis (Sowerby) and ‘Assiminea’ globulus Connolly. Although first described 80–170 years ago and present in abundance (up to 100,000 m^?2), they remain surrounded by confusion and still await taxonomic assignment, largely because they appear most atypical members of their groups by virtue of anatomy and/or biogeography and/or habitat. This study contributes in-life perspectives to morphological and phylogenetic analyses known to be on-going. At Knysna, they are syntopic: at least two occurring in >85% and all three in >40% of individual 0.0026 m² samples from their region of dominance. Nevertheless, they tend to greater abundance in divergent microhabitats; ‘A.’ globulus dominating higher tidal levels, and ‘A.’ capensis and ‘Hydrobia’ lower ones; the former especially unvegetated sediment, the latter, if anything, seagrass. Interspecific feeding interactions appear unlikely to be responsible for these patterns, other evidence suggesting that all are maintained below carrying capacity. Field biology of ‘H.’ knysnaensis generally appears equivalent to that of northern-hemisphere intertidal hydrobiids and that of ‘A.’ globulus is typically assimineid, albeit at atypically low shore height. Unlike assimineids, however, ‘A.’ capensis is truly aquatic. The success of these truncatelloids in unusual circumstances may be consequent on the absence from South Africa of other microgastropod groups that fill their niches elsewhere in the southern hemisphere.     

Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

“普世价值”思潮对大学生的影响及对策

以民主、自由、人权为核心的“普世价值”思潮具有极强的迷惑性,论述了其对当代大学生的价值观念、政治认同所产生的不可忽视的影响。提出高校思想政治教育工作者必须准确把握“普世价值”思潮的内容和实质,批判其理论根基和价值基础,坚持“疏”“导”结合,强化社会主义核心价值观教育,不断提高大学生抵制错误思潮的能力。     

避孕压力为啥由女性承担

<正>也不是没人研究过男性避孕药,只是面对这"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"的精子们,科学家们绞尽脑汁却依旧所获不多。避孕,是男女两个人的事,但在选择避孕方式上,女性安装宫内节育器的比例要比男性做输精管结扎术的比例大得多,市面上的避孕药品也几乎都偏向于女性。像宫内节育器这样的避孕措施对女性的伤害还真不小。最可怕的是有很多女性即使带上宫内节育器还会有怀孕的情况,而这样的情况往往会导致宫外孕。     

La$_{{1-x}}$Sr$_{x}$TiO$_{3}$ 薄膜的高通量 X 射线衍射

高通量材料合成方法和高通量材料表征手段区别于传统低效率的 "试错法"材料发展方法, 极大地加速了材料科学的变革和发展. 通过设计程序进行了高通量 X 射线衍射实验, 在保证数据分辨率条件下, 高效地表征了 La$_{1-x}$Sr$_{x}$TiO$_{3}$ 薄膜上多个数据位点的晶体结构, 验证了其成分的连续变化性质, 为后续开展更多类型的高通量 X 射线衍射实验提供了指导.     

春节模型的效应期识别方法研究

春节模型的参数设定目前更多依赖于研究者的主观判断.为解决这一问题,本文首先介绍了春节因素调整的一般过程以及模型设定和检验的相关细节.在此基础上,提出一种基于"循环遍历"方式和序贯检验方法来自动选择春节模型的最优参数组合的新思路.并以社会消费品零售总额月度序列的春节模型的最优效应期长度识别为例,检验该方法的可行性和有效性.实证结果显示,基于季节峰值、离群值点、Q统计量、AICC值和BIC值等统计量的序贯检验能够有效识别出春节模型的最优效应期长度,进而改善春节模型的季节调整性能.     

基于热中子探测评价裂缝的示踪剂特性研究

针对裂缝热中子示踪探测方法,从中子双组扩散理论入手结合蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法,分析压裂前后地层热中子分布影响因素,并模拟不同类型示踪剂及含量的热中子裂缝响应规律,筛选最佳示踪剂并给出其在支撑剂中含量的上、下限。结果表明:压裂前后热中子计数变化量主要受裂缝宽度和标记支撑剂中示踪剂含量的影响;钆对裂缝宽度变化反应最灵敏,钆元素是作为标记支撑剂的最佳示踪元素;随支撑剂中Gd 2O 3含量的增加,热中子计数率降低,热中子计数变化量D增加;示踪剂中氧化钆的上、下限值随裂缝宽度呈指数降低,且当裂缝宽度为1.0 cm时,Gd 2O 3的质量分数上限为0.68%,下限为0.03%。