首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   25985篇
  免费   95篇
  国内免费   107篇
系统科学   134篇
丛书文集   146篇
教育与普及   49篇
理论与方法论   87篇
现状及发展   10607篇
研究方法   1125篇
综合类   13619篇
自然研究   420篇
  2013年   234篇
  2012年   402篇
  2011年   787篇
  2010年   169篇
  2008年   432篇
  2007年   548篇
  2006年   540篇
  2005年   496篇
  2004年   469篇
  2003年   461篇
  2002年   490篇
  2001年   989篇
  2000年   957篇
  1999年   575篇
  1992年   530篇
  1991年   422篇
  1990年   465篇
  1989年   474篇
  1988年   440篇
  1987年   450篇
  1986年   437篇
  1985年   512篇
  1984年   462篇
  1983年   384篇
  1982年   358篇
  1981年   343篇
  1980年   361篇
  1979年   842篇
  1978年   685篇
  1977年   579篇
  1976年   550篇
  1975年   562篇
  1974年   728篇
  1973年   559篇
  1972年   594篇
  1971年   754篇
  1970年   921篇
  1969年   646篇
  1968年   717篇
  1967年   623篇
  1966年   602篇
  1965年   422篇
  1964年   130篇
  1959年   210篇
  1958年   380篇
  1957年   253篇
  1956年   197篇
  1955年   186篇
  1954年   182篇
  1948年   150篇
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Areas of the Knysna estuarine bay in the Western Cape are dominated by three endemic South African truncatelloid microgastropods, temporarily known as ‘Hydrobiaknysnaensis (Krauss), ‘Assimineacapensis (Sowerby) and ‘Assimineaglobulus Connolly. Although first described 80–170 years ago and present in abundance (up to 100,000 m?2), they remain surrounded by confusion and still await taxonomic assignment, largely because they appear most atypical members of their groups by virtue of anatomy and/or biogeography and/or habitat. This study contributes in-life perspectives to morphological and phylogenetic analyses known to be on-going. At Knysna, they are syntopic: at least two occurring in >85% and all three in >40% of individual 0.0026 m2 samples from their region of dominance. Nevertheless, they tend to greater abundance in divergent microhabitats; ‘A.’ globulus dominating higher tidal levels, and ‘A.’ capensis and ‘Hydrobia’ lower ones; the former especially unvegetated sediment, the latter, if anything, seagrass. Interspecific feeding interactions appear unlikely to be responsible for these patterns, other evidence suggesting that all are maintained below carrying capacity. Field biology of ‘H.’ knysnaensis generally appears equivalent to that of northern-hemisphere intertidal hydrobiids and that of ‘A.’ globulus is typically assimineid, albeit at atypically low shore height. Unlike assimineids, however, ‘A.’ capensis is truly aquatic. The success of these truncatelloids in unusual circumstances may be consequent on the absence from South Africa of other microgastropod groups that fill their niches elsewhere in the southern hemisphere.  相似文献   
2.
This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.  相似文献   
3.
随着城市化高速发展,老厂房再利用的问题日益急迫.上海是中国近代工业起源地,也是率先着手对彰显城市文脉的工业遗产进行调查和保护的历史文化名城.本文以上海典型案例入手,分析了具有代表性的老厂房改造的项目特点,并在此基础上,对常州大成三厂这一民国时期的纺织业遗留地块进行改造设计手法进行介绍,从设计理念、设计内容和节点设计3个方面,体现了文化传承和生态技术相融合理念.  相似文献   
4.
Online auctions have become increasingly popular in recent years. There is a growing body of research on this topic, whereas modeling online auction price curves constitutes one of the most interesting problems. Most research treats price curves as deterministic functions, which ignores the random effects of external and internal factors. To account for the randomness, a more realistic model using stochastic differential equations is proposed in this paper. The online auction price is modeled by a stochastic differential equation in which the deterministic part is equivalent to the second‐order differential equation model proposed in Wang et al. (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2008, 103, 1100–1118). The model also includes a component representing the measurement errors. Explicit expressions for the likelihood function are also obtained, from which statistical inference can be conducted. Forecast accuracy of the proposed model is compared with the ODE (ordinary differential equation) approach. Simulation results show that the proposed model performs better.  相似文献   
5.
6.
7.
以具体工程为例,介绍了建筑物地基处理的设计、施工中遵循的原则,施工中遇到特殊情况时采取的处理方法和必要的检测方法,对几种桩基的设计要求、施工工艺及过程、质量控制等情况进行了简单阐述。  相似文献   
8.
In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non‐linear structure of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR‐type non‐linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non‐linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non‐linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
9.
10.
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号