Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Goniothalamicin and annonacin: Bioactive acetogenins fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Using brine shrimp lethality for activity-directed fractionation, goniothalamicin (I), a new tetrahydroxy-mono-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), has been isolated from ethanolic extracts of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae). This novel compound was found to be cytotoxic and insecticidal and inhibited the formation of crown gall tumors on potato discs. Annonacin (II), the only other reported mono-tetrahydrofuran acetogenin, was also isolated; the previously reported 9ASK (astrocytoma reversal) activity ofII was confirmed, andII is now also found to be weakly active against 3PS murine leukemia.     

Gigantecin: A novel antimitotic and cytotoxic acetogenin,with nonadjacent tetrahydrofuran rings,fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Gigantecin (I), a novel tetrahydroxy-di-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), was isolated from an ethanolic extract of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae), by means of activity-directed fractionation (brine shrimp lethality test). This new compound is extremely cytotoxic to human tumor cells, inhibits crown gall tumors on potato discs, and is active in an assay designed to detect antimitotic agents (9 ASK).     

Forecasting in the presence of level shifts

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

嗜盐菌的研究新进展

嗜盐菌作为一种新型微生物资源,已经在很多方面得到应用.如：为微生物生理、分类,系统发育学和生命科学研究提供新的课题,因此,嗜盐菌已引起人们的广泛关注.文章主要讨论了嗜盐菌的嗜盐机理和应用方面的研究新进展.     

关于生物高分子元素活性中心分布规律的第四统计力学理论标度的研究(Ⅱ)——心血管中药的生命动力元素按原子序数分布的规律与群子参数间关系

首次采用第四统计力学群子理论对心血管中药中生命动力元素的分布规律进行了系统的研究 ,结果表明心血管中药的生命动力元素按原子序数分布呈现出如下四种分布规律，即不同中药有轻度元素分布、较轻度元素分布、较重度元素分布和重度元素分布 ,并且每一种分布根据R₂ /R₁的值又可分为两个分支。本文还首次阐述了群子统计参数R₁、R₂ 、R₂ /R₁及R₁·R₂ 在中药生命动力元素分布中的物理内涵。这些研究为进一步定量地研究中药的性味和药效之间的关系提供了必要的依据。     

阿尔泰两河源物种多样性及其保护

阿尔泰两河源区生境多样性形成了新疆地区独特的、具有潜在经济和生态价值的遗传基因,多种动植物已被列为优先保护物种和中国濒危重点保护植物,其物种多样性在新疆乃至全国占有相当重要地位.在物种多样性保护和研究方面,对重要的动植物资源进行迁地保护和专属引种研究.物种多样性迁地保护、种群分布地生态系统保护和自然景观多样性保护对古老特有成分、受威胁的动植物种类和具有重要经济潜力的物种资源具有重大意义.     

螺旋压缩机：数学模型和性能计算

本书是施普林格出版社2005年出版的一本关于螺旋压缩机的新著。螺旋式压缩机是一种最常见的用于压缩气体的机器，由于其构造简单、工作效率高而受到人们的关注。本书系统阐述了螺旋压缩机的种类、几何参数转子的设计工作原理和螺旋压缩机的计算。