灰色残差修正模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用

电力系统负荷预测是电力系统发电计划的重要组成部分,也是电力系统经济运行的基础。本文在应用GM（1,1）模型的基础上,建立了两种应用残差对预测数据进修正的模型。实例表明本文提出的方法较传统GM（1,1）模型有更高的精度。     

Tunable pKa values and the basis of opposite charge selectivities in nicotinic-type receptors

Among ion channels, only the nicotinic-receptor superfamily has evolved to generate both cation- and anion-selective members. Although other, structurally unrelated, neurotransmitter-gated cation channels exist, no other type of neurotransmitter-gated anion channel, and thus no other source of fast synaptic inhibitory signals, has been described so far. In addition to the seemingly straightforward electrostatic effect of the presence (in the cation-selective members) or absence (in the anion-selective ones) of a ring of pore-facing carboxylates, mutational studies have identified other features of the amino-acid sequence near the intracellular end of the pore-lining transmembrane segments (M2) that are also required to achieve the high charge selectivity shown by native channels. However, the mechanism underlying this more subtle effect has remained elusive and a subject of speculation. Here we show, using single-channel electrophysiological recordings to estimate the protonation state of native ionizable side chains, that anion-selective-type sequences favour whereas cation-selective-type sequences prevent the protonation of the conserved, buried basic residues at the intracellular entrance of the pore (the M2 0' position). We conclude that the previously unrecognized tunable charge state of the 0' ring of buried basic side chains is an essential feature of these channels' versatile charge-selectivity filter.