Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries

The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3-8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.     

Somatic activation of the K-ras oncogene causes early onset lung cancer in mice

About 30% of human tumours carry ras gene mutations. Of the three genes in this family (composed of K-ras, N-ras and H-ras), K-ras is the most frequently mutated member in human tumours, including adenocarcinomas of the pancreas ( approximately 70-90% incidence), colon ( approximately 50%) and lung ( approximately 25-50%). To construct mouse tumour models involving K-ras, we used a new gene targeting procedure to create mouse strains carrying oncogenic alleles of K-ras that can be activated only on a spontaneous recombination event in the whole animal. Here we show that mice carrying these mutations were highly predisposed to a range of tumour types, predominantly early onset lung cancer. This model was further characterized by examining the effects of germline mutations in the tumour suppressor gene p53, which is known to be mutated along with K-ras in human tumours. This approach has several advantages over traditional transgenic strategies, including that it more closely recapitulates spontaneous oncogene activation as seen in human cancers.     

Snowball Earth prevention by dissolved organic carbon remineralization

The 'snowball Earth' hypothesis posits the occurrence of a sequence of glaciations in the Earth's history sufficiently deep that photosynthetic activity was essentially arrested. Because the time interval during which these events are believed to have occurred immediately preceded the Cambrian explosion of life, the issue as to whether such snowball states actually developed has important implications for our understanding of evolutionary biology. Here we couple an explicit model of the Neoproterozoic carbon cycle to a model of the physical climate system. We show that the drawdown of atmospheric oxygen into the ocean, as surface temperatures decline, operates so as to increase the rate of remineralization of a massive pool of dissolved organic carbon. This leads directly to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, enhanced greenhouse warming of the surface of the Earth, and the prevention of a snowball state.     

p63 and p73 are required for p53-dependent apoptosis in response to DNA damage

The tumour-suppressor gene p53 is frequently mutated in human cancers and is important in the cellular response to DNA damage. Although the p53 family members p63 and p73 are structurally related to p53, they have not been directly linked to tumour suppression, although they have been implicated in apoptosis. Given the similarity between this family of genes and the ability of p63 and p73 to transactivate p53 target genes, we explore here their role in DNA damage-induced apoptosis. Mouse embryo fibroblasts deficient for one or a combination of p53 family members were sensitized to undergo apoptosis through the expression of the adenovirus E1A oncogene. While using the E1A system facilitated our ability to perform biochemical analyses, we also examined the functions of p63 and p73 using an in vivo system in which apoptosis has been shown to be dependent on p53. Using both systems, we show here that the combined loss of p63 and p73 results in the failure of cells containing functional p53 to undergo apoptosis in response to DNA damage.     

Neoproterozoic 'snowball Earth' simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model

Ice sheets may have reached the Equator in the late Proterozoic era (600-800 Myr ago), according to geological and palaeomagnetic studies, possibly resulting in a 'snowball Earth'. But this period was a critical time in the evolution of multicellular animals, posing the question of how early life survived under such environmental stress. Here we present computer simulations of this unusual climate stage with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. To simulate a snowball Earth, we use only a reduction in the solar constant compared to present-day conditions and we keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations near present levels. We find rapid transitions into and out of full glaciation that are consistent with the geological evidence. When we combine these results with a general circulation model, some of the simulations result in an equatorial belt of open water that may have provided a refugium for multicellular animals.     

椭圆齿旋流口平带传热管内自动清洗及其传热强化

介绍了一种特殊结构的旋流口椭圆齿平带的研制。平带上的每个椭圆齿都是使平带自转的流体动力结构元素,平带两侧的旋流口结构能够使管内的部分液体形成螺旋线流,因而具有近似斜齿纽带那样能够在较低流速下自转实现管内污垢在线自动清洗的宝贵性能。由于椭圆齿后的大量涡流、管内部分液体流线转变为螺旋线流股以及螺旋线流股与轴向流股分合交错这样3方面的作用,管内的对流传热强化的幅度由此远远高于光滑纽带。试验结果表明,这种平带不仅容易制造,并且综合性能好,在管内流速0.5m/s左右就可运行;管内侧的传热系数提高170%,流体阻力在一般工程许可的范围内,因此具有较高的工程应用价值。