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Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur.  相似文献   
2.
The ability to cool and slow atoms with light for subsequent trapping allows investigations of the properties and interactions of the trapped atoms in unprecedented detail. By contrast, the complex structure of molecules prohibits this type of manipulation, but magnetic trapping of calcium hydride molecules thermalized in ultra-cold buffer gas and optical trapping of caesium dimers generated from ultra-cold caesium atoms have been reported. However, these methods depend on the target molecules being paramagnetic or able to form through the association of atoms amenable to laser cooling, respectively, thus restricting the range of species that can be studied. Here we describe the slowing of an adiabatically cooled beam of deuterated ammonia molecules by time-varying inhomogeneous electric fields and subsequent loading into an electrostatic trap. We are able to trap state-selected ammonia molecules with a density of 10(6) cm(-3) in a volume of 0.25 cm3 at temperatures below 0.35 K. We observe pronounced density oscillations caused by the rapid switching of the electric fields during loading of the trap. Our findings illustrate that polar molecules can be efficiently cooled and trapped, thus providing an opportunity to study collisions and collective quantum effects in a wide range of ultra-cold molecular systems.  相似文献   
3.
Gu LQ  Braha O  Conlan S  Cheley S  Bayley H 《Nature》1999,398(6729):686-690
The detection of organic molecules is important in many areas, including medicine, environmental monitoring and defence. Stochastic sensing is an approach that relies on the observation of individual binding events between analyte molecules and a single receptor. Engineered transmembrane protein pores are promising sensor elements for stochastic detection, and in their simplest manifestation they produce a fluctuating binary ('on/off') response in the transmembrane electrical current. The frequency of occurrence of the fluctuations reveals the concentration of the analyte, and its identity can be deduced from the characteristic magnitude and/or duration of the fluctuations. Genetically engineered versions of the bacterial pore-forming protein alpha-haemolysin have been used to identify and quantify divalent metal ions in solution. But it is not immediately obvious how versatile binding sites for organic ligands might be obtained by engineering of the pore structure. Here we show that stochastic sensing of organic molecules can be procured from alpha-haemolysin by equipping the channel with an internal, non-covalently bound molecular 'adapter' which mediates channel blocking by the analyte. We use cyclodextrins as the adapters because these fit comfortably inside the pore and present a hydrophobic cavity suitable for binding a variety of organic analytes. Moreover, a single sensing element of this sort can be used to analyse a mixture of organic molecules with different binding characteristics. We envisage the use of other adapters, so that the pore could be 'programmed' for a range of sensing functions.  相似文献   
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