Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biotechnology regulation: rules for freed organisms planned

The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to regulate the biotechnology industry, claiming authority under the provisions of the Federal Toxic Substances Control Act (TOSCA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). In the agency's view, the products of recombinant DNA techniques can be compared to new chemicals or pesticides, both of which fall under EPA jurisdiction. Although a legal challenge to EPA's authority in this area is expected from industry, the agency hopes to issue its first set of draft regulations in early 1984.     

Immunological properties of oxygen-transport proteins: hemoglobin,hemocyanin and hemerythrin

It is now well documented that peptides with enhanced or alternative functionality (termed cryptides) can be liberated from larger, and sometimes inactive, proteins. A primary example of this phenomenon is the oxygen-transport protein hemoglobin. Aside from respiration, hemoglobin and hemoglobin-derived peptides have been associated with immune modulation, hematopoiesis, signal transduction and microbicidal activities in metazoans. Likewise, the functional equivalents to hemoglobin in invertebrates, namely hemocyanin and hemerythrin, act as potent immune effectors under certain physiological conditions. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the true extent of oxygen-transport protein dynamics in innate immunity, and to impress upon the reader the multi-functionality of these ancient proteins on the basis of their structures. In this context, erythrocyte–pathogen antibiosis and the immune competences of various erythroid cells are compared across diverse taxa.     

On the narrative form of simulations

Understanding complex physical systems through the use of simulations often takes on a narrative character. That is, scientists using simulations seek an understanding of processes occurring in time by generating them from a dynamic model, thereby producing something like a historical narrative. This paper focuses on simulations of the Diels-Alder reaction, which is widely used in organic chemistry. It calls on several well-known works on historical narrative to draw out the ways in which use of these simulations mirrors aspects of narrative understanding: Gallie for “followability” and “contingency”; Mink for “synoptic judgment”; Ricoeur for “temporal dialectic”; and Hawthorn for a related dialectic of the “actual and the possible”. Through these reflections on narrative, the paper aims for a better grasp of the role that temporal development sometimes plays in understanding physical processes and of how considerations of possibility enhance that understanding.     

PTC124 targets genetic disorders caused by nonsense mutations

Nonsense mutations promote premature translational termination and cause anywhere from 5-70% of the individual cases of most inherited diseases. Studies on nonsense-mediated cystic fibrosis have indicated that boosting specific protein synthesis from <1% to as little as 5% of normal levels may greatly reduce the severity or eliminate the principal manifestations of disease. To address the need for a drug capable of suppressing premature termination, we identified PTC124-a new chemical entity that selectively induces ribosomal readthrough of premature but not normal termination codons. PTC124 activity, optimized using nonsense-containing reporters, promoted dystrophin production in primary muscle cells from humans and mdx mice expressing dystrophin nonsense alleles, and rescued striated muscle function in mdx mice within 2-8 weeks of drug exposure. PTC124 was well tolerated in animals at plasma exposures substantially in excess of those required for nonsense suppression. The selectivity of PTC124 for premature termination codons, its well characterized activity profile, oral bioavailability and pharmacological properties indicate that this drug may have broad clinical potential for the treatment of a large group of genetic disorders with limited or no therapeutic options.