Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physiological state of submitochondrial particles and their susceptibility to Triton X-100

Summary The solubilizing effect of Triton X-100 on beef heart submitochondrial particles (ETP_H) has been studied under various physiological conditions. Coupled, uncoupled and azide-inhibited ETP_H particles have been studied. Quantitative and qualitative differences are found in the proteins solubilized by the detergent from ETP_H particles under the various conditions tested.Acknowledgments: This work was supported in part by a grant from a Spanish Comisión Asesora para la Investigación Cientifica y Técnica. M.C. Barbero was recipient of a scholarship from the Basque Government.     

High-affinity binding ofβ-alanine to cerebral synaptosomes might involve glycine-receptors

Summary High-affinity, Na⁺-independent binding of -alanine to a synaptosomal fraction of rat brain was potently inhibited by glycine and by some other -amino acids, but not by taurine or GABA. This binding mechanism, which was also sensitive to both bicuculline and strychnine, might involve synaptic receptors for both -alanine and glycine.This study was supported in part by Centro Ramón y Cajal and Fundacion Juan March.     

The coconut pathosystem: weed hosts of nymphs of the American palm Cixiid Haplaxius crudus (Hemiptera: Fulgoroidea)

Lethal yellowing (LY) of coconut palm (Cocos nucifera L., Arecaceae) is a disease of economic importance that is caused by the phytoplasma ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma palmae’ and is transmitted by the planthopper Haplaxius crudus (Van Duzee) (Hemiptera: Cixiidae). This study explores the weeds used by H. crudus nymphs and other Cixiidae in a coconut pathosystem in southern Mexico. Nymphs were collected directly from the root system of each weed by hand or with the help of a vacuum after carefully opening the culm. This study included 11 species of weeds: nine Poaceae [Brachiaria decumbens Stapf, B. humidicola (Rendle) Schweick, B. mutica (Forssk.) Stapf, Digitaria abyssinica (Hochst. Ex A. Rich.) Stapf, Eustachys petraea (Sw.) Desv., Leersia hexandra Sw., Panicum laxum Sw., P. maximum Jacq., Paspalum notatum Flüggé]; one Cyperaceae [Cyperus ligularis L.], and one Portulacaceae: [Portulaca pilosa L.]. Brachiaria mutica, E. petraea, B. humidicola, P. maximum were identified as the principal host species for H. crudus nymphs. Brachiaria decumbens, D. abyssinica, and C. ligularis are new host records for the nymphs of H. crudus. Additionally, it was found that H. crudus may coexist with its cogeners H. skarphion Kramer (Cixiidae) and H. caldwelli Kramer (Cixiidae), on B. mutica. On C. ligularis, H. crudus may coexist with Oecleus snowi Ball (Cixiidae) nymphs. These results suggest that in the coconut pathosystem there is a complex of multitrophic interactions that should be considered in integrated management of LY.     

Neurogenic effects of β-amyloid in the choroid plexus epithelial cells in Alzheimer’s disease

β-amyloid (Aβ) can promote neurogenesis, both in vitro and in vivo, by inducing neural progenitor cells to differentiate into neurons. The choroid plexus in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is burdened with amyloid deposits and hosts neuronal progenitor cells. However, neurogenesis in this brain tissue is not firmly established. To investigate this issue further, we examined the effect of Aβ on the neuronal differentiation of choroid plexus epithelial cells in several experimental models of AD. Here we show that Aβ regulates neurogenesis in vitro in cultured choroid plexus epithelial cells as well as in vivo in the choroid plexus of APP/Ps1 mice. Treatment with oligomeric Aβ increased proliferation and differentiation of neuronal progenitor cells in cultured choroid plexus epithelial cells, but decreased survival of newly born neurons. These Aβ-induced neurogenic effects were also observed in choroid plexus of APP/PS1 mice, and detected also in autopsy tissue from AD patients. Analysis of signaling pathways revealed that pre-treating the choroid plexus epithelial cells with specific inhibitors of TyrK or MAPK diminished Aβ-induced neuronal proliferation. Taken together, our results support a role of Aβ in proliferation and differentiation in the choroid plexus epithelial cells in Alzheimer’s disease.     

Parasite community of the golden cownose ray Rhinoptera steindachneri Evermann and Jenkins 1891 (Chondrichthyes: Myliobatidae), in Acapulco Bay,Guerrero, Mexico

The parasite community of the ray Rhinoptera steindachneri from Acapulco Bay was examined and quantified; analyses were based on the sex of the host and the date of sampling. A total of 171 specimens of R. steindachneri were examined during July–August of 2010, and May and July of 2012. Twenty-one species of parasites were found: three species of Monogenea; eight adult and one larval species of Cestoda; one larval species of Nematoda; five species of Copepoda; two species of Isopoda; and one species of Hirudinea. Cestodes had the greatest species richness (43% of the total species), followed by the copepods (24%). Two species of cestode, Glyphobothrium sp. and Rhinebothrium sp., were collected only from adult rays. At the component community level, species richness showed statistically significant variation between 13 and 16 species, which is similar to previous reports for other species of rays. The parasite component communities and infracommunities of R. steindachneri exhibited similar patterns: high species number and low numerical dominance by a particular species of parasite. The differences of body size of male vs. female rays, and a change in diet and feeding behaviour with the age of R. steindachneri, are likely important factors in the structuring of their parasite communities.     

The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 caused by meridional plasma flow variations

Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface varies periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions generated by a dynamo mechanism that recreates the solar polar field mediated through plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the first half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the second half, reproduces both characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy and radio flux, and, in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar wind, the heliospheric open flux and, consequently, the cosmic ray flux at Earth.     

A Pluto-like radius and a high albedo for the dwarf planet Eris from an occultation

The dwarf planet Eris is a trans-Neptunian object with an orbital eccentricity of 0.44, an inclination of 44 degrees and a surface composition very similar to that of Pluto. It resides at present at 95.7 astronomical units (1?AU is the Earth-Sun distance) from Earth, near its aphelion and more than three times farther than Pluto. Owing to this great distance, measuring its size or detecting a putative atmosphere is difficult. Here we report the observation of a multi-chord stellar occultation by Eris on 6 November 2010 UT. The event is consistent with a spherical shape for Eris, with radius 1,163?±?6?kilometres, density 2.52?±?0.05 grams per cm(3) and a high visible geometric albedo, Pv = 0.96(+0.09)(-0.04). No nitrogen, argon or methane atmospheres are detected with surface pressure larger than ～1?nanobar, about 10,000 times more tenuous than Pluto's present atmosphere. As Pluto's radius is estimated to be between 1,150 and 1,200 kilometres, Eris appears as a Pluto twin, with a bright surface possibly caused by a collapsed atmosphere, owing to its cold environment. We anticipate that this atmosphere may periodically sublimate as Eris approaches its perihelion, at 37.8 astronomical units from the Sun.