基于新型相似日选取和VMD-NGO-BiGRU的短期光伏功率预测

光伏功率预测在现代电力系统调度和运行中起着重要作用.针对光伏发电功率的多变性和复杂性,提出了一种基于新型相似日选取和北方苍鹰算法（Northern Goshawk Optimization, NGO）优化双向门控循环单元（Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit, BiGRU）的短期光伏功率预测方法.首先,利用斯皮尔曼相关系数选取主要气象因子,通过变分模态分解（Variational Mode Decomposition, VMD）将原始光伏功率和最大气象因子分解重构为一系列子信号.其次,通过构建新的评价指标筛选出相似日数据集,利用一组BiGRU建立以相似日子信号为网络输入的深度学习模型,并利用NGO对每个BiGRU网络的超参数进行有效优化.最后,对各子信号的预测结果进行综合,得到最终的光伏功率预测值.仿真结果表明,所提混合深度学习方法在预测精度和计算效率方面均优于其他方法.     

预言现代神经科学的文学教授

21世纪见证了神经科学的发展,我们更加深入地理解了脑,不再局限于脑的解剖学基础,而是转向了认知的角度.每年都会涌现出对记忆和想象力的新认识,同时让人惊讶于这一学科与人类学和哲学等学科的深度交叉.不到一个世纪之前,在二战的余波中,一位剑桥大学的文学教授率先提出了他对认知的看法,这一看法如今仍然相当现代.而直到最近,我们才...     

此号错误

隐约响起的隆隆声如同打雷一般,将沉睡的我吵醒.我翻转身,望向窗外——夜空清澈又静谧,满是明亮的星星,视野之内见不到半片云朵.我叹息了一声,闭上眼睛,渴望能有一晚不受打搅的好眠. 一声古怪的轻鸣长驱直入,传进我的耳朵,开始变得越来越响,害得我背上的汗毛都竖立得笔直.窗外有个暗影在移动,随着它从夜空中逐渐下降,星星一颗又一...     

脑让人每日耳目一新

脑的"可塑性"是现代科学的伟大发现之一,但神经科学家大卫?伊戈曼(David Eagleman)认为这种描述具有一定误导性."塑料"通过模具固定为一种特定的形状,而脑的物质结构却处在不断变化之中.但伊戈曼无法摆脱这个词:"所有的文献都在用这个词,我只能尽量避免."伊戈曼对脑的"计算机类比"也有所质疑.他创造出了"活体连...     

一次不可思议的跨洋漂流造就了人类起源的可能

人类同猩猩、猿、猴一样发源于非洲.但从现有研究来看,更早的祖先在进入非洲之前起源于非洲之外,比如亚洲.在大约5000万年前,非洲是一片被海水与世界隔绝的孤岛.那么这些祖先是如何到达非洲的呢? 最容易想到的是这些祖先通过陆桥进入非洲,但是目前已有的地理学证据不支持这一理论.相反,地理学证据提示了我们一种看起来最不可能的方...     

Long-chain branched/cyclic alkanes in recent sediment of Lake Fuxian and their environmental implications

Lake Fuxian is a large, deep, and oligotrophic freshwater lake. In recent sediment of this lake, a series of branched and cyclic alkanes, including branched alkanes with one or two quaternary carbon atoms （C2n compounds）, alkylcycloheptane, and alkylcyclohexane, were detected in high abundance. For each homolog of long-chain branched/ cyclic alkanes, molecules with only an odd or even carbon number were present in the sediment. The abundance vari- ation of each compound homolog corresponded to those of other compound homolog in the section, indicating the same origin of these compounds. The concentrations of long-chain branched/cyclic alkanes in the sediment profile exhibited variations similar to those of phytoplankton biomarkers, such as 3-methylJalkanes, short-chain odd carbon n-alkanes, hopene, polyunsaturated fatty acids, phytol, sterols, and long-chain alkyl diols, but slightly different from those of long-chain odd carbon n-alkanes, which are ubiquitous biomarkers for higher plants. Therefore, the Can compounds and long-chain cyclic alkanes in the lake sediment were most likely produced by algae and bacteria in the water, primarily, by the heterotrophic bacteria in the moderately oxygenated waters, which flourishing might be the results of specific water environments in Lake Fuxian.     

GPS单频PPP电离层延迟改正模型探讨

针对电离层延迟会导致GPS单频精密单点定位精度严重缺失的情况,分别探讨了克罗布歇模型、格网模型和历元差分模型,并采用IGS跟踪站数据进行电离层延迟改正。同时根据改正后的单频精密单点定位精度,比较了这三种电离层延迟改正模型的改正效果。结果表明:历元差分模型的改正效果最好,其改正后单频精密单点定位精度可达到厘米级,能较好地符合实际应用要求。     

Sperm viability in the reproductive tract of females in a population of Sceloporus mucronatus exhibiting asynchronous reproduction

Asynchronous reproduction is a common phenomenon in high-elevation populations of lizards from Central México. Sperm storage in the reproductive tract of females is the mechanism for making oocyte fertilization possible. Our study addresses questions related to functional oviductal sperm storage of females mating on different dates throughout the reproductive season. A population of Sceloporus mucronatus with copulation in the summer and ovulation in the fall was chosen for this experiment. Eleven females that copulated in the field during June and 13 females that copulated in captivity during August were maintained in the laboratory until parturition. The number of pregnant females and the litter sizes produced in each experimental group were indicative of the viability of the stored sperm. Sperm stored in the reproductive tract of females were able to fertilize eggs after 4 months. No significant differences were found in the number of pregnant females between the 2 experimental groups nor in the litter sizes that they produced. We found that the amount of time sperm were held in the female reproductive tract (ca. 3 months) had no effect on the capacity of sperm to fertilize eggs. Histological examination of 8 oviducts collected before the mating season eliminated the possibility of sperm storage from one year to the next. In this system, sperm retention could have evolved as a response mechanism to deal with the asynchrony between sexes in the reproductive cycles. However, we cannot rule out alternative hypotheses.     

基于门控权重单元的多变量时间序列预测

多变量时间序列各变量间依赖性较强,数据变化趋势不明显,预测难度高.传统研究采用带门控机制的循环神经网络及变体进行预测,但序列间存在相互依赖关系,突变数据段建模预测不精确.基于信息熵,本文提出一种新的改进门控权重单元,利用信息熵技术量化数据序列的变化程度,动态调整权重矩阵刻画数据的变化趋势.基于4个公开数据集分别进行实验,实验结果表明新模型比传统循环神经网络模型具有更好的预测性能.