Future Performance Prediction of Research Infrastructure Based on Past Performance

Research infrastructure is crucial for development of research,and thus the evaluation of its performance is important.However,existing researches mostly focus on its past observations,lacking of a prediction for future. In this paper, procedures are proposed to predict the distribution for the number of papers published in a certain future year. The publication reliability,which is defined as the probability that the number of published papers in the future year is bigger than a pre-specified number,is evaluated. Illustrative examples are proposed to show the applications of the model.     

Performability of Research Infrastructure Comsidering Costs and Values for Different Outputs

The research infrastructure is very crucial for the development of some fundamental research. However,it is costly to buy,install and operate the infrastructure. This paper analyzes the costs and benefits of research infrastructure using a concept termed as investment reliability. Both the costs and the outputs are represented by a cash flow diagram,and the investment reliability is modeled. Different types of outputs are taken into concern in the model formulation. Illustrative examples are proposed to show how to apply the model.