Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel

Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.     

Substitution at residue 227 of H-2 class I molecules abrogates recognition by CD8-dependent, but not CD8-independent, cytotoxic T lymphocytes

The CD8 (Lyt 2) molecule is a phenotypic marker for T lymphocytes that recognize and react with major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules. Antibody blocking experiments and gene transfection studies indicate that CD8 binds to a determinant on MHC class I molecules on the target cells, facilitating interaction between effector T lymphocytes and the target cell. The CD8 molecule may also be involved in transmembrane signalling during T-cell activation. The existence of CD8- cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) and class I-reactive CTL that are not inhibited by antibody to CD8 suggests that at least some CTL do not require the CD8 molecule to interact with and lyse target cells. We have recently demonstrated that cells transfected with an H-2Dd gene that carries a mutation at residue 227 are not killed by primary CTL8. Here we show that although this mutation abrogates recognition by primary CTL, it does not affect recognition by CD8-independent CTL, suggesting that residue 227 of class I molecules might contribute to a determinant that is the ligand of the CD8 molecule.     

Amplification of immunoglobulin lambda constant genes in populations of wild mice

The lambda immunoglobulin light chain (Ig lambda) locus of BALB/c inbred mice consists of two variable region gene segments (V lambda)1-3, and four constant region gene segments (C lambda)1,2,4,5. Each C lambda gene segment is associated with a unique joining segment (J lambda)2,4-7, and they are organized in two paired units, J3C3-J1C1 and J2C2-J4C4 (refs 4, 8). Using cDNA probes specific for C lambda 1 and C lambda 2 (ref. 9) we have analysed the genomic organization of the C lambda gene segments in wild-derived and inbred strains of mice. Although Southern blots of the genomic DNA of inbred mice show a constant pattern of hybridization, wild-derived mice show a high degree of variation in the number, size and intensity of hybridizing fragments. We have now found that, per haploid genome, mice of a Mus musculus musculus stock isolated from Sladeckovce, Czechoslovakia (CzII) have at least 12 C lambda segments, and mice of a Mus musculus domesticus stock 'Centreville Lights' from Centreville, Maryland (CL) have at least 8 C lambda segments. There appears to have been relatively recent amplifications of the C lambda gene segments in wild mice.     

Synaptic vesicle depletion and glutamate uptake in a nerve-muscle preparation of the locust,Locusta migratoria L

Summary Excitatory terminals, depleted of their synaptic vesicles by stimulation at high frequency, were incubated in the radiolabelled putative neurotransmitter, L-glutamate. Quantitative electron microscope autoradiography revealed that the axoplasm of these recovering terminals had accumulated the³H L-glutamate.Acknowledgment. The authors wish to thank Dr N. M. Blackett for running the computer analyses of the autoradiographical results. R. P. Botham gratefully acknowledges the SRC for financial assistance.     

Stimulation induced depletion of the synaptic vesicles in excitatory motor nerve terminals of the locust,Locusta migratoria L

Summary Neural stimulation at high frequency induced gross changes in the ultrastructural properties and depleted the synaptic vesicles in fast axon terminals of locust extensor tibiae muscles. After a 1-h-rest the synaptic vesicle populations recovered and the ultrastructural properties of these recovering neuromuscular junctions closely resembled those of the controls.Acknowledgment. The authors wish to thank Mr M. J. Parker for invaluable help with the statistical analyses. R. P. Botham gratefully acknowledges the SRC for financial assistance.