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In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A microRNA component of the p53 tumour suppressor network 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
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Recombination and linkage disequilibrium in Arabidopsis thaliana 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Kim S Plagnol V Hu TT Toomajian C Clark RM Ossowski S Ecker JR Weigel D Nordborg M 《Nature genetics》2007,39(9):1151-1155
Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is a major aspect of the organization of genetic variation in natural populations. Here we describe the genome-wide pattern of LD in a sample of 19 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions using 341,602 non-singleton SNPs. LD decays within 10 kb on average, considerably faster than previously estimated. Tag SNP selection algorithms and 'hide-the-SNP' simulations suggest that genome-wide association mapping will require only 40%-50% of the observed SNPs, a reduction similar to estimates in a sample of African Americans. An Affymetrix genotyping array containing 250,000 SNPs has been designed based on these results; we demonstrate that it should have more than adequate coverage for genome-wide association mapping. The extent of LD is highly variable, and we find clear evidence of recombination hotspots, which seem to occur preferentially in intergenic regions. LD also reflects the action of selection, and it is more extensive between nonsynonymous polymorphisms than between synonymous polymorphisms. 相似文献
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A mixed-model approach for genome-wide association studies of correlated traits in structured populations 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are a standard approach for studying the genetics of natural variation. A major concern in GWAS is the need to account for the complicated dependence structure of the data, both between loci as well as between individuals. Mixed models have emerged as a general and flexible approach for correcting for population structure in GWAS. Here, we extend this linear mixed-model approach to carry out GWAS of correlated phenotypes, deriving a fully parameterized multi-trait mixed model (MTMM) that considers both the within-trait and between-trait variance components simultaneously for multiple traits. We apply this to data from a human cohort for correlated blood lipid traits from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 and show greatly increased power to detect pleiotropic loci that affect more than one blood lipid trait. We also apply this approach to an Arabidopsis thaliana data set for flowering measurements in two different locations, identifying loci whose effect depends on the environment. 相似文献
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An efficient multi-locus mixed-model approach for genome-wide association studies in structured populations 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Segura V Vilhjálmsson BJ Platt A Korte A Seren Ü Long Q Nordborg M 《Nature genetics》2012,44(7):825-830
Population structure causes genome-wide linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci, leading to statistical confounding in genome-wide association studies. Mixed models have been shown to handle the confounding effects of a diffuse background of large numbers of loci of small effect well, but they do not always account for loci of larger effect. Here we propose a multi-locus mixed model as a general method for mapping complex traits in structured populations. Simulations suggest that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of power as well as false discovery rate. We apply our method to human and Arabidopsis thaliana data, identifying new associations and evidence for allelic heterogeneity. We also show how a priori knowledge from an A. thaliana linkage mapping study can be integrated into our method using a Bayesian approach. Our implementation is computationally efficient, making the analysis of large data sets (n > 10,000) practicable. 相似文献
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The extent of linkage disequilibrium in Arabidopsis thaliana. 总被引:20,自引:0,他引:20
Magnus Nordborg Justin O Borevitz Joy Bergelson Charles C Berry Joanne Chory Jenny Hagenblad Martin Kreitman Julin N Maloof Tina Noyes Peter J Oefner Eli A Stahl Detlef Weigel 《Nature genetics》2002,30(2):190-193
Linkage disequilibrium (LD), the nonrandom occurrence of alleles in haplotypes, has long been of interest to population geneticists. Recently, the rapidly increasing availability of genomic polymorphism data has fueled interest in LD as a tool for fine-scale mapping, in particular for human disease loci. The chromosomal extent of LD is crucial in this context, because it determines how dense a map must be for associations to be detected and, conversely, limits how finely loci may be mapped. Arabidopsis thaliana is expected to harbor unusually extensive LD because of its high degree of selfing. Several polymorphism studies have found very strong LD within individual loci, but also evidence of some recombination. Here we investigate the pattern of LD on a genomic scale and show that in global samples, LD decays within approximately 1 cM, or 250 kb. We also show that LD in local populations may be much stronger than that of global populations, presumably as a result of founder events. The combination of a relatively high level of polymorphism and extensive haplotype structure bodes well for developing a genome-wide LD map in A. thaliana. 相似文献
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The article explores the action research process throughout a land management research project, with the ambition to reflect upon action research as a working approach. It is shown how this process is experienced from a researcher’s point of view and it critically analyses its methodology and process, outcome and the role of the action researcher.The learning environment known to farmers and framed by local institutions and practical experimentation, embedded in the local worldview, constituted a necessary starting point for achieving motivation and practical outcomes. Tight feedback loops between practice and reflection enabled joint learning and innovation and rapid implementation of measures suggested by the farmers. The approach could be particularly useful for local NGOs and local universities. 相似文献
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白瑞楠 《科技导报(北京)》2019,37(2):63-64
我们需要科学素质,但如何才能提高公众科学素质是我们需要探讨的问题,也是一个多元化的问题,人们对此观点不一。经济合作与发展组织2007年定义的科学素质包括3个不同维度:一是学科知识,二是对科学过程的了解,三是科学对个体和社会的影响。在此仅就最后这一点展开讨论。 相似文献
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Schwarz-Linek U Werner JM Pickford AR Gurusiddappa S Kim JH Pilka ES Briggs JA Gough TS Höök M Campbell ID Potts JR 《Nature》2003,423(6936):177-181
Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pyogenes, two important human pathogens, target host fibronectin (Fn) in their adhesion to and invasion of host cells. Fibronectin-binding proteins (FnBPs), anchored in the bacterial cell wall, have multiple Fn-binding repeats in an unfolded region of the protein. The bacterium-binding site in the amino-terminal domain (1-5F1) of Fn contains five sequential Fn type 1 (F1) modules. Here we show the structure of a streptococcal (S. dysgalactiae) FnBP peptide (B3) in complex with the module pair 1F12F1. This identifies 1F1- and 2F1-binding motifs in B3 that form additional antiparallel beta-strands on sequential F1 modules-the first example of a tandem beta-zipper. Sequence analyses of larger regions of FnBPs from S. pyogenes and S. aureus reveal a repeating pattern of F1-binding motifs that match the pattern of F1 modules in 1-5F1 of Fn. In the process of Fn-mediated invasion of host cells, therefore, the bacterial proteins seem to exploit the modular structure of Fn by forming extended tandem beta-zippers. This work is a vital step forward in explaining the full mechanism of the integrin-dependent FnBP-mediated invasion of host cells. 相似文献