Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

喀斯特自然土壤中AM真菌对先锋植物根系的影响

【目的】研究丛枝菌根(Arbuscular mycorrhiza，AM)真菌在喀斯特自然土壤条件下对喀斯特先锋草本植物根系的影响。【方法】通过自然土接种AM真菌(N)、灭菌土接种AM真菌(M)及灭菌土壤对照(S)共3种土壤处理，种植喀斯特先锋植物狗尾草(Setaria viridis)、荩草(Arthraxon hispidus)、鬼针草(Bidens pilosa)及狼杷草(Bidens tripartita)，并测定它们的根系生物量、根长、根表面积、根体积、根平均直径、根尖数及根分枝数。【结果】荩草、鬼针草及狼杷草在N处理及M处理下具有较高的菌根侵染率，狗尾草的菌根侵染率较低。与S处理相比，M处理下AM真菌明显提高了荩草、鬼针草及狼杷草的根系生物量、根长、根表面积、根体积、根尖数、根分枝数及组织密度，降低了根平均直径、比根长、比根面积及比根体积；与M处理相比，N处理明显降低了荩草、鬼针草及狼杷草的根系生物量、根长、根表面积、根体积、根尖数、根分枝数及组织密度，提高了比根长、比根面积及比根体积，但对根平均直径无明显影响。【结论】荩草、鬼针草及狼杷草具有较高菌根侵染率，能与AM真菌共生获得更加发达的根系，而自然土壤削弱了AM真菌对荩草、鬼针草及狼杷草根系生长的促进作用。     

Mutations in SECISBP2 result in abnormal thyroid hormone metabolism

Incorporation of selenocysteine (Sec), through recoding of the UGA stop codon, creates a unique class of proteins. Mice lacking tRNA(Sec) die in utero, but the in vivo role of other components involved in selenoprotein synthesis is unknown, and Sec incorporation defects have not been described in humans. Deiodinases (DIOs) are selenoproteins involved in thyroid hormone metabolism. We identified three of seven siblings with clinical evidence of abnormal thyroid hormone metabolism. Their fibroblasts showed decreased DIO2 enzymatic activity not linked to the DIO2 locus. Systematic linkage analysis of genes involved in DIO2 synthesis and degradation led to the identification of an inherited Sec incorporation defect, caused by a homozygous missense mutation in SECISBP2 (also called SBP2). An unrelated child with a similar phenotype was compound heterozygous with respect to mutations in SECISBP2. Because SBP2 is epistatic to selenoprotein synthesis, these defects had a generalized effect on selenoproteins. Incomplete loss of SBP2 function probably causes the mild phenotype.     

基于并行工程的产品开发过程管理的研究

并行工程采用集成化与并行化的思想来开发产品,强调在信息集成基础上的过程集成,运用工作流管理技术能够很好地达到此目的。在分析工作流管理技术的基础上,以冲压模具的开发过程为例来说明用工作流管理技术实现产品开发过程管理的     

GH220合金中碳化物相变规律

研究了合金中M_6C,M_(23)C_6及MC的晶体结构、化学组成、形态、分布及数量,它们的溶解析出规律及互相转化。