Forecasting the Italian industrial production index in real time

Daily electricity consumption data, available almost in real time, can be used in Italy to estimate the level of industrial production in any given month before the month is over. We present a number of procedures that do this using electricity consumption in the first 14 days of the month. (This is an extension of a previous model that used monthly electricity data.) We show that, with a number of adjustments, a model using half-monthly electricity data generates acceptable estimates of the monthly production index. More precisely, these estimates are more accurate than univariate forecasts but less accurate than estimates based on monthly electricity data. A further improvement can be obtained by combining ‘half-monthly’ electricity-based estimates with univariate forecasts. We also present quarterly estimates and discuss confidence intervals for various types of forecasts.     

An African origin for the intimate association between humans and Helicobacter pylori

Infection of the stomach by Helicobacter pylori is ubiquitous among humans. However, although H. pylori strains from different geographic areas are associated with clear phylogeographic differentiation, the age of an association between these bacteria with humans remains highly controversial. Here we show, using sequences from a large data set of bacterial strains that, as in humans, genetic diversity in H. pylori decreases with geographic distance from east Africa, the cradle of modern humans. We also observe similar clines of genetic isolation by distance (IBD) for both H. pylori and its human host at a worldwide scale. Like humans, simulations indicate that H. pylori seems to have spread from east Africa around 58,000 yr ago. Even at more restricted geographic scales, where IBD tends to become blurred, principal component clines in H. pylori from Europe strongly resemble the classical clines for Europeans described by Cavalli-Sforza and colleagues. Taken together, our results establish that anatomically modern humans were already infected by H. pylori before their migrations from Africa and demonstrate that H. pylori has remained intimately associated with their human host populations ever since.     

Mutations in GRIN2A and GRIN2B encoding regulatory subunits of NMDA receptors cause variable neurodevelopmental phenotypes

N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors mediate excitatory neurotransmission in the mammalian brain. Two glycine-binding NR1 subunits and two glutamate-binding NR2 subunits each form highly Ca2(+)-permeable cation channels which are blocked by extracellular Mg2(+) in a voltage-dependent manner. Either GRIN2B or GRIN2A, encoding the NMDA receptor subunits NR2B and NR2A, was found to be disrupted by chromosome translocation breakpoints in individuals with mental retardation and/or epilepsy. Sequencing of GRIN2B in 468 individuals with mental retardation revealed four de novo mutations: a frameshift, a missense and two splice-site mutations. In another cohort of 127 individuals with idiopathic epilepsy and/or mental retardation, we discovered a GRIN2A nonsense mutation in a three-generation family. In a girl with early-onset epileptic encephalopathy, we identified the de novo GRIN2A mutation c.1845C>A predicting the amino acid substitution p.N615K. Analysis of NR1-NR2A(N615K) (NR2A subunit with the p.N615K alteration) receptor currents revealed a loss of the Mg2(+) block and a decrease in Ca2(+) permeability. Our findings suggest that disturbances in the neuronal electrophysiological balance during development result in variable neurological phenotypes depending on which NR2 subunit of NMDA receptors is affected.     

Inflammatory bowel disease: is it a primary immunodeficiency?

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) such as ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease are chronic and relapsing conditions, characterized by abdominal pain, diarrhea, bleeding and malabsorption. IBD has been considered a hyperinflammatory state due to disturbed interactions between the immune system and the commensal bacterial flora of the gut. However, there is evidence that Crohn’s disease might be the consequence of a reduced release of pro-inflammatory cytokines and an impaired acute inflammatory response, thereby suggesting that IBD might be an immunodeficiency rather than an excessive inflammatory reaction. This theory has been supported by observations in patients with primary immunodeficiencies such as the Wiskott–Aldrich syndrome and IPEX (immunodysregulation, polyendocrinopathy, enteropathy, X-linked syndrome). In contrary, defects in the anti-inflammatory down-regulation of the immune response as they are seen in patients with Mendelian defects in the IL10 signaling pathway support the hyper-inflammatory theory. In this review, we describe and discuss primary immunodeficiencies associated with IBD and show that the bowel is a highly sensitive indicator of dysregulations, making IBD a model disease to study and identify key regulators required to balance the human mucosal immune system.     

Membrana testacea: A support for organ cultures

Riassunto È stato dimostrato che la membrana testacea costituisce un substrato idoneo e di agevole preparazione per culture organotipiche.     

Decreased synthesis of ‘secreted’ proteins in chick embryo liver cultures treated by estradiol-17-β

Riassunto Culture primarie di fegato embrionale di pollo indotte a sintetizzare fosvitina con stimolo ormonico producono in minore quantità le altre proteine.     

Structural diversity and African origin of the 17q21.31 inversion polymorphism

The 17q21.31 inversion polymorphism exists either as direct (H1) or inverted (H2) haplotypes with differential predispositions to disease and selection. We investigated its genetic diversity in 2,700 individuals, with an emphasis on African populations. We characterize eight structural haplotypes due to complex rearrangements that vary in size from 1.08-1.49 Mb and provide evidence for a 30-kb H1-H2 double recombination event. We show that recurrent partial duplications of the KANSL1 gene have occurred on both the H1 and H2 haplotypes and have risen to high frequency in European populations. We identify a likely ancestral H2 haplotype (H2') lacking these duplications that is enriched among African hunter-gatherer groups yet essentially absent from West African populations. Whereas H1 and H2 segmental duplications arose independently and before human migration out of Africa, they have reached high frequencies recently among Europeans, either because of extraordinary genetic drift or selective sweeps.     

HAX1 deficiency causes autosomal recessive severe congenital neutropenia (Kostmann disease)

Autosomal recessive severe congenital neutropenia (SCN) constitutes a primary immunodeficiency syndrome associated with increased apoptosis in myeloid cells, yet the underlying genetic defect remains unknown. Using a positional cloning approach and candidate gene evaluation, we identified a recurrent homozygous germline mutation in HAX1 in three pedigrees. After further molecular screening of individuals with SCN, we identified 19 additional affected individuals with homozygous HAX1 mutations, including three belonging to the original pedigree described by Kostmann. HAX1 encodes the mitochondrial protein HAX1, which has been assigned functions in signal transduction and cytoskeletal control. Here, we show that HAX1 is critical for maintaining the inner mitochondrial membrane potential and protecting against apoptosis in myeloid cells. Our findings suggest that HAX1 is a major regulator of myeloid homeostasis and underline the significance of genetic control of apoptosis in neutrophil development.