Identification of low-frequency variants associated with gout and serum uric acid levels

We tested 16 million SNPs, identified through whole-genome sequencing of 457 Icelanders, for association with gout and serum uric acid levels. Genotypes were imputed into 41,675 chip-genotyped Icelanders and their relatives, for effective sample sizes of 968 individuals with gout and 15,506 individuals for whom serum uric acid measurements were available. We identified a low-frequency missense variant (c.1580C>G) in ALDH16A1 associated with gout (OR = 3.12, P = 1.5 × 10(-16), at-risk allele frequency = 0.019) and serum uric acid levels (effect = 0.36 s.d., P = 4.5 × 10(-21)). We confirmed the association with gout by performing Sanger sequencing on 6,017 Icelanders. The association with gout was stronger in males relative to females. We also found a second variant on chromosome 1 associated with gout (OR = 1.92, P = 0.046, at-risk allele frequency = 0.986) and serum uric acid levels (effect = 0.48 s.d., P = 4.5 × 10(-16)). This variant is close to a common variant previously associated with serum uric acid levels. This work illustrates how whole-genome sequencing data allow the detection of associations between low-frequency variants and complex traits.     

Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds

Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.     

A mutation in APP protects against Alzheimer's disease and age-related cognitive decline

The prevalence of dementia in the Western world in people over the age of 60 has been estimated to be greater than 5%, about two-thirds of which are due to Alzheimer's disease. The age-specific prevalence of Alzheimer's disease nearly doubles every 5 years after age 65, leading to a prevalence of greater than 25% in those over the age of 90 (ref. 3). Here, to search for low-frequency variants in the amyloid-β precursor protein (APP) gene with a significant effect on the risk of Alzheimer's disease, we studied coding variants in APP in a set of whole-genome sequence data from 1,795 Icelanders. We found a coding mutation (A673T) in the APP gene that protects against Alzheimer's disease and cognitive decline in the elderly without Alzheimer's disease. This substitution is adjacent to the aspartyl protease β-site in APP, and results in an approximately 40% reduction in the formation of amyloidogenic peptides in vitro. The strong protective effect of the A673T substitution against Alzheimer's disease provides proof of principle for the hypothesis that reducing the β-cleavage of APP may protect against the disease. Furthermore, as the A673T allele also protects against cognitive decline in the elderly without Alzheimer's disease, the two may be mediated through the same or similar mechanisms.     

Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change

People may often forecast using cognitive procedures that resemble formal time-series extrapolation models. A model of judgmental extrapolation based on exponential smoothing is proposed in which the setting of the trend parameter is hypothesized to depend upon the relative salience of the successive changes. The salience hypothesis was first tested with exponential series by the use of a framing manipulation. As predicted, focusing the subjects' attention on the changes led to more accurate forecasts. In two investment simulation studies, the salience hypothesis was further examined by varying the statistical properties of the price changes. As predicted, subjects were more likely to sell as prices fell and to buy as prices rose (1) as the sample size of similar changes increased; (2) when the variance of the changes was low; and (3) when the absolute value of the mean change was high. Conditions that may influence judgmental forecasting processes are discussed.