Genome-wide association study identifies three new melanoma susceptibility loci

We report a genome-wide association study for melanoma that was conducted by the GenoMEL Consortium. Our discovery phase included 2,981 individuals with melanoma and 1,982 study-specific control individuals of European ancestry, as well as an additional 6,426 control subjects from French or British populations, all of whom were genotyped for 317,000 or 610,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Our analysis replicated previously known melanoma susceptibility loci. Seven new regions with at least one SNP with P < 10(-5) and further local imputed or genotyped support were selected for replication using two other genome-wide studies (from Australia and Texas, USA). Additional replication came from case-control series from the UK and The Netherlands. Variants at three of the seven loci replicated at P < 10(-3): an SNP in ATM (rs1801516, overall P = 3.4 × 10(-9)), an SNP in MX2 (rs45430, P = 2.9 × 10(-9)) and an SNP adjacent to CASP8 (rs13016963, P = 8.6 × 10(-10)). A fourth locus near CCND1 remains of potential interest, showing suggestive but inconclusive evidence of replication (rs1485993, overall P = 4.6 × 10(-7) under a fixed-effects model and P = 1.2 × 10(-3) under a random-effects model). These newly associated variants showed no association with nevus or pigmentation phenotypes in a large British case-control series.     

Retrospective Testing of Mortality Forecasting Methods for the Projection of Very Elderly Populations in Australia

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of retrospective tests of various extrapolative methods to forecast adult mortality and very elderly populations for Australia. Direct extrapolation methods tested include the Geometric method, Ediev variant, Lee‐Carter method, BMS variant and a relational model. Indirect methods include the extrapolation of parameters of models fitted to the age profile of death rates and a new method involving the extrapolation of features of death frequency distributions namely the modal age and concentration. The geometric, Ediev and Lee‐ Carter BMS methods were very successful in projecting death rates and very elderly populations. Differences between these methods were small. The extrapolation of parametric functions proved successful for males but less so for females. Very elderly populations can be viably projected by directly extrapolating death rates by age when rates of decline in death rates show consistent relationships between ages and are stable over time. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.