Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complex reorganization and predominant non-homologous repair following chromosomal breakage in karyotypically balanced germline rearrangements and transgenic integration

We defined the genetic landscape of balanced chromosomal rearrangements at nucleotide resolution by sequencing 141 breakpoints from cytogenetically interpreted translocations and inversions. We confirm that the recently described phenomenon of 'chromothripsis' (massive chromosomal shattering and reorganization) is not unique to cancer cells but also occurs in the germline, where it can resolve to a relatively balanced state with frequent inversions. We detected a high incidence of complex rearrangements (19.2%) and substantially less reliance on microhomology (31%) than previously observed in benign copy-number variants (CNVs). We compared these results to experimentally generated DNA breakage-repair by sequencing seven transgenic animals, revealing extensive rearrangement of the transgene and host genome with similar complexity to human germline alterations. Inversion was the most common rearrangement, suggesting that a combined mechanism involving template switching and non-homologous repair mediates the formation of balanced complex rearrangements that are viable, stably replicated and transmitted unaltered to subsequent generations.     

Polycomb-mediated methylation on Lys27 of histone H3 pre-marks genes for de novo methylation in cancer

Many genes associated with CpG islands undergo de novo methylation in cancer. Studies have suggested that the pattern of this modification may be partially determined by an instructive mechanism that recognizes specifically marked regions of the genome. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis, here we show that genes methylated in cancer cells are specifically packaged with nucleosomes containing histone H3 trimethylated on Lys27. This chromatin mark is established on these unmethylated CpG island genes early in development and then maintained in differentiated cell types by the presence of an EZH2-containing Polycomb complex. In cancer cells, as opposed to normal cells, the presence of this complex brings about the recruitment of DNA methyl transferases, leading to de novo methylation. These results suggest that tumor-specific targeting of de novo methylation is pre-programmed by an established epigenetic system that normally has a role in marking embryonic genes for repression.     

Estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) gene amplification is frequent in breast cancer

Using an Affymetrix 10K SNP array to screen for gene copy number changes in breast cancer, we detected a single-gene amplification of the ESR1 gene, which encodes estrogen receptor alpha, at 6q25. A subsequent tissue microarray analysis of more than 2,000 clinical breast cancer samples showed ESR1 amplification in 20.6% of breast cancers. Ninety-nine percent of tumors with ESR1 amplification showed estrogen receptor protein overexpression, compared with 66.6% cancers without ESR1 amplification (P < 0.0001). In 175 women who had received adjuvant tamoxifen monotherapy, survival was significantly longer for women with cancer with ESR1 amplification than for women with estrogen receptor-expressing cancers without ESR1 amplification (P = 0.023). Notably, we also found ESR1 amplification in benign and precancerous breast diseases, suggesting that ESR1 amplification may be a common mechanism in proliferative breast disease and a very early genetic alteration in a large subset of breast cancers.     

A genome-wide association study for celiac disease identifies risk variants in the region harboring IL2 and IL21

We tested 310,605 SNPs for association in 778 individuals with celiac disease and 1,422 controls. Outside the HLA region, the most significant finding (rs13119723; P = 2.0 x 10(-7)) was in the KIAA1109-TENR-IL2-IL21 linkage disequilibrium block. We independently confirmed association in two further collections (strongest association at rs6822844, 24 kb 5' of IL21; meta-analysis P = 1.3 x 10(-14), odds ratio = 0.63), suggesting that genetic variation in this region predisposes to celiac disease.     

Loss of ACTN3 gene function alters mouse muscle metabolism and shows evidence of positive selection in humans

More than a billion humans worldwide are predicted to be completely deficient in the fast skeletal muscle fiber protein alpha-actinin-3 owing to homozygosity for a premature stop codon polymorphism, R577X, in the ACTN3 gene. The R577X polymorphism is associated with elite athlete status and human muscle performance, suggesting that alpha-actinin-3 deficiency influences the function of fast muscle fibers. Here we show that loss of alpha-actinin-3 expression in a knockout mouse model results in a shift in muscle metabolism toward the more efficient aerobic pathway and an increase in intrinsic endurance performance. In addition, we demonstrate that the genomic region surrounding the 577X null allele shows low levels of genetic variation and recombination in individuals of European and East Asian descent, consistent with strong, recent positive selection. We propose that the 577X allele has been positively selected in some human populations owing to its effect on skeletal muscle metabolism.