Robustness of alternative non‐linearity tests for SETAR models

In recent years there has been a growing interest in exploiting potential forecast gains from the non‐linear structure of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Statistical tests have been proposed in the literature to help analysts check for the presence of SETAR‐type non‐linearities in an observed time series. It is important to study the power and robustness properties of these tests since erroneous test results might lead to misspecified prediction problems. In this paper we investigate the robustness properties of several commonly used non‐linearity tests. Both the robustness with respect to outlying observations and the robustness with respect to model specification are considered. The power comparison of these testing procedures is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that all of the existing tests are not robust to outliers and model misspecification. Finally, an empirical application applies the statistical tests to stock market returns of the four little dragons (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) in East Asia. The non‐linearity tests fail to provide consistent conclusions most of the time. The results in this article stress the need for a more robust test for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series analysis and forecasting. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从著作权角度剖析逢甲大学校园数位内容经营服务管理计画

在数位化与网路化的学术典藏传播大趋势下 ,建构一个完整、方便、迅速与合理使用的校园数位内容经营服务体系 ,是兼具教育与研究两大使命的大学机构必须进行的工作 ,特别是对身负知识典藏与传播责任的图书馆来说 ,更是刻不容缓的任务 .本文介绍逢甲大学图书馆所规划推动的校园数位内容经营服务管理计画 ,探讨其征集服务范围以及提交、互评、加值典藏、传播与版权管理等作业流程 ,并说明所需要的支援团队和人力配置、所产出的产品形式和应用方式 .最后从著作权的角度分析校园数位内容经营服务所涉及的合理使用、著作财产权和著作授权使用问题     

数位时代图书馆馆员专业知能发展之研究——以逢甲大学为例

受到资讯媒体新科技影响 ,图书馆读者使用行为已从单一的馆藏利用 ,转为期望图书馆提供更多元化的服务 ;另外在财政紧缩 资源扩增 人力不足等因素下 ,图书馆提供各类型服务的运作模式也受到相当的冲击 ,图书馆为提供以读者为道向的服务 ,必需付出许多努力并改变服务哲学 ,因而图书馆馆员的专业知能发展要不断提升才能因应数位时代的环境改变 ,并提供读者一个优质的资讯服务 ,发挥图书馆LearningResourceCenter学习资源中心的角色 .本研究主要探讨图书馆如何在有限资源下 ,有系统地规划发展馆员专业知能 ,并且利用那一种方法可以最有效率、花费最少成本达到最大的馆员能力提升效果 ,根据文献探讨以及学习行为方法理论 ,提出一个适合发展馆员专业知能的模式 (Approachmodel) ,通过探讨逢甲大学图书馆的两个专案其馆员专业知能转变的历程 ,检视了此发展模式的成效 ,并提出未来该模式可再改进的方向及建议     

Forecasting for the LCD monitor market

The TFT‐LCD (thin‐film transistor–liquid crystal display) industry is one of the key global industries with products that have high clock speed. In this research, the LCD monitor market is considered for an empirical study on hierarchical forecasting (HF). The proposed HF methodology consists of five steps. First, the three hierarchical levels of the LCD monitor market are identified. Second, several exogenously driven factors that significantly affect the demand for LCD monitors are identified at each level of product hierarchy. Third, the three forecasting techniques—regression analysis, transfer function, and simultaneous equations model—are combined to forecast future demand at each hierarchical level. Fourth, various forecasting approaches and disaggregating proportion methods are adopted to obtain consistent demand forecasts at each hierarchical level. Finally, the forecast errors with different forecasting approaches are assessed in order to determine the best forecasting level and the best forecasting approach. The findings show that the best forecast results can be obtained by using the middle‐out forecasting approach. These results could guide LCD manufacturers and brand owners on ways to forecast future market demands. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving moving average trading rules with boosting and statistical learning methods

We present a system for combining the different types of predictions given by a wide category of mechanical trading rules through statistical learning methods (boosting, and several model averaging methods like Bayesian or simple averaging methods). Statistical learning methods supply better out‐of‐sample results than most of the single moving average rules in the NYSE Composite Index from January 1993 to December 2002. Moreover, using a filter to reduce trading frequency, the filtered boosting model produces a technical strategy which, although it is not able to overcome the returns of the buy‐and‐hold (B&H) strategy during rising periods, it does overcome the B&H during falling periods and is able to absorb a considerable part of falls in the market. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PTC124 targets genetic disorders caused by nonsense mutations

Nonsense mutations promote premature translational termination and cause anywhere from 5-70% of the individual cases of most inherited diseases. Studies on nonsense-mediated cystic fibrosis have indicated that boosting specific protein synthesis from <1% to as little as 5% of normal levels may greatly reduce the severity or eliminate the principal manifestations of disease. To address the need for a drug capable of suppressing premature termination, we identified PTC124-a new chemical entity that selectively induces ribosomal readthrough of premature but not normal termination codons. PTC124 activity, optimized using nonsense-containing reporters, promoted dystrophin production in primary muscle cells from humans and mdx mice expressing dystrophin nonsense alleles, and rescued striated muscle function in mdx mice within 2-8 weeks of drug exposure. PTC124 was well tolerated in animals at plasma exposures substantially in excess of those required for nonsense suppression. The selectivity of PTC124 for premature termination codons, its well characterized activity profile, oral bioavailability and pharmacological properties indicate that this drug may have broad clinical potential for the treatment of a large group of genetic disorders with limited or no therapeutic options.     

Scanning-tunnelling spectra of cuprates

The study of bosonic modes that couple to the charge carriers is a key element in understanding superconductivity. Using atomic-resolution scanning-tunnelling microscopy (STM) to extract the spectrum of these modes in the high-temperature superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O(8+delta), Lee et al. find a mode whose frequency does not depend on doping but that changes on isotopic substitution of 16O with 18O. From this, they infer a role for lattice modes (phonons). However, examination of their data reveals a weaker, but distinct, feature that has all the characteristics of the magnetic excitation identified as the bosonic mode in other competing experiments. We therefore suggest that the lattice mode seen by Lee et al. is not relevant to superconductivity and is due to inelastic tunnelling through the insulating oxide layer.     

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140?mm?Hg systolic blood pressure or ≥90?mm?Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.     

Copy number variation and selection during reprogramming to pluripotency

The mechanisms underlying the low efficiency of reprogramming somatic cells into induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells are poorly understood. There is a clear need to study whether the reprogramming process itself compromises genomic integrity and, through this, the efficiency of iPS cell establishment. Using a high-resolution single nucleotide polymorphism array, we compared copy number variations (CNVs) of different passages of human iPS cells with their fibroblast cell origins and with human embryonic stem (ES) cells. Here we show that significantly more CNVs are present in early-passage human iPS cells than intermediate passage human iPS cells, fibroblasts or human ES cells. Most CNVs are formed de novo and generate genetic mosaicism in early-passage human iPS cells. Most of these novel CNVs rendered the affected cells at a selective disadvantage. Remarkably, expansion of human iPS cells in culture selects rapidly against mutated cells, driving the lines towards a genetic state resembling human ES cells.     

Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.