Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Goniothalamicin and annonacin: Bioactive acetogenins fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Using brine shrimp lethality for activity-directed fractionation, goniothalamicin (I), a new tetrahydroxy-mono-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), has been isolated from ethanolic extracts of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae). This novel compound was found to be cytotoxic and insecticidal and inhibited the formation of crown gall tumors on potato discs. Annonacin (II), the only other reported mono-tetrahydrofuran acetogenin, was also isolated; the previously reported 9ASK (astrocytoma reversal) activity ofII was confirmed, andII is now also found to be weakly active against 3PS murine leukemia.     

Gigantecin: A novel antimitotic and cytotoxic acetogenin,with nonadjacent tetrahydrofuran rings,fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Gigantecin (I), a novel tetrahydroxy-di-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), was isolated from an ethanolic extract of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae), by means of activity-directed fractionation (brine shrimp lethality test). This new compound is extremely cytotoxic to human tumor cells, inhibits crown gall tumors on potato discs, and is active in an assay designed to detect antimitotic agents (9 ASK).     

Spontaneous maze ambulation in two mouse strains

Summary A simple device is described, which permits us to quantify several parameters of spontaneous behaviour of small animals. Using this device with mice we obtained statistically satisfactory results, showing a strong genetic influence on the behavioural characteristics tested.We wish to thank Mr R. Laplace for technical help, Mr J. P. Arnould for electronic work as well as I.N.S.E.R.M.-SCR 3.     

Forecasting in the presence of level shifts

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

螺旋压缩机：数学模型和性能计算

本书是施普林格出版社2005年出版的一本关于螺旋压缩机的新著。螺旋式压缩机是一种最常见的用于压缩气体的机器，由于其构造简单、工作效率高而受到人们的关注。本书系统阐述了螺旋压缩机的种类、几何参数转子的设计工作原理和螺旋压缩机的计算。     

数字通信系统 第三版

本书全面介绍了数字通信系统的理论和实际应用方法，并且包含了在数字信号传输中需要运用的关于设计、实现和测试的最新方法和技术。此书介绍的基本技术有：纠错码、多路复用、数字调制、数字用户线路、电缆调制、移动无线网络、城域网和光纤网络。新的工业标准有：声音／视频编码、SONET/SDH、DWDM、ATM、宽带无线网、网络同步和网络管理。每一章节后都有评述和参考文献和大量习题（无答案）。     

Structure,scale and emergence

In this paper I consider the structures that chemists and physicists attribute at the molecular scale to substances and materials of various kinds, and how they relate to structures and processes at other scales. I argue that the structure of a substance is the set of properties and relations which are preserved across all the conditions in which it can be said to exist. In short, structure is abstraction. On the basis of this view, and using concrete examples, I argue that structures, and therefore the chemical substances and other materials to which they are essential, are emergent. Firstly, structures themselves are scale-dependent because they can only exist within certain physical conditions, and a single substance may have different structures at different scales (of length, time and energy). Secondly, the distinctness of both substances and structures is a scale-dependent relationship: above a certain point, two distinct possibilities may become one. Thirdly, the necessary conditions for composition, for both substances and molecular species, are scale-dependent. To know whether a group of nuclei and electrons form a molecule it is not enough to consider energy alone: one also has to know about their environment and the lifetime over which the group robustly hangs together.