Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of space by the marsupials Gracilinanus microtarsus (Gardner and Creighton, 1989) and Marmosops incanus (Lund, 1840) in an Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil

The use of space by animals is determined by environmental conditions, biological and ecological adaptations and interactions and mostly by resource availability. We sampled two species of Neotropical mammals to investigate their use of different strata in Atlantic Forest habitat in Brazil, as well as the home range sizes and movements of both sexes of each species. We found no difference in home ranges and movements between the sexes and species, but we found differences in the use of strata, with Gracilinanus microtarsus mostly using the canopy and Marmosops incanus using the ground. Gracilinanus microtarsus males mostly use the understorey in the wet season and the canopy in the dry season. We believe that these patterns of strata use reflect intrinsic characteristics of the species; and the shifts in resources and interspecific competition, which are lower in the dry season, seem to be responsible for the shifts in space use observed for G. microtarsus males. We recommend studies with spool-and-line techniques or radio tracking to further test refined hypotheses regarding the use of space, including the role of territoriality in females.     

Insertional mutagenesis in zebrafish rapidly identifies genes essential for early vertebrate development

To rapidly identify genes required for early vertebrate development, we are carrying out a large-scale, insertional mutagenesis screen in zebrafish, using mouse retroviral vectors as the mutagen. We will obtain mutations in 450 to 500 different genes--roughly 20% of the genes that can be mutated to produce a visible embryonic phenotype in this species--and will clone the majority of the mutated alleles. So far, we have isolated more than 500 insertional mutants. Here we describe the first 75 insertional mutants for which the disrupted genes have been identified. In agreement with chemical mutagenesis screens, approximately one-third of the mutants have developmental defects that affect primarily one or a small number of organs, body shape or swimming behavior; the rest of the mutants show more widespread or pleiotropic abnormalities. Many of the genes we identified have not been previously assigned a biological role in vivo. Roughly 20% of the mutants result from lesions in genes for which the biochemical and cellular function of the proteins they encode cannot be deduced with confidence, if at all, from their predicted amino-acid sequences. All of the genes have either orthologs or clearly related genes in human. These results provide an unbiased view of the genetic construction kit for a vertebrate embryo, reveal the diversity of genes required for vertebrate development and suggest that hundreds of genes of unknown biochemical function essential for vertebrate development have yet to be identified.     

Association of rheumatoid arthritis and primary osteoarthritis with changes in the glycosylation pattern of total serum IgG

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a widely prevalent (1-3%) chronic systemic disease thought to have an autoimmune component; both humoral and cellular mechanisms have been implicated. Primary osteoarthritis (OA) is considered to be distinct from rheumatoid arthritis, and here damage is thought to be secondary to cartilage degeneration. In rheumatoid arthritis, immune complexes are present that consist exclusively of immunoglobulin, implying that this is both the 'antibody' (rheumatoid factor [RF]) and the 'antigen' (most commonly IgG). Autoantigenic reactivity has been localized to the constant-region (C gamma 2) domains of IgG. There is no evidence for a polypeptide determinant but carbohydrate changes have been reported. We have therefore conducted a study, simultaneously in Oxford and Tokyo, to compare in detail the N-glycosylation pattern of serum IgG (Fig. 1) isolated from normal individuals and from patients with either primary osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis. The results, which required an evaluation of the primary sequences of approximately 1,400 oligosaccharides from 46 IgG samples, indicate that: (1) IgG isolated from normal individuals, patients with RA and patients with OA contains different distributions of asparagine-linked bi-antennary complex-type oligosaccharide structures, (2) in neither disease is the IgG associated with novel oligosaccharide structures, but the observed differences are due to changes in the relative extent of galactosylation compared with normal individuals. This change results in a 'shift' in the population of IgG molecules towards those carrying complex oligosaccharides, one or both of whose arms terminate in N-acetylglucosamine. These two arthritides may therefore be glycosylation diseases, reflecting changes in the intracellular processing, or post-secretory degradation of N-linked oligosaccharides.     

Study of the mechanism of inhibition produced by hexoses on histamine release activity of dextran

Zusammenfassung Die Hemmung der Histaminfreisetzung durch Hexosen wurde untersucht. Es gelang, nachzuweisen bzw. graphisch darzustellen, dass ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem Prozentgehalt der Histaminfreisetzung und der Dextrankonzentration besteht, wenn nachLineweaver undBurk analysiert wurde.     

Mechanochemical analysis of DNA gyrase using rotor bead tracking

DNA gyrase is a molecular machine that uses the energy of ATP hydrolysis to introduce essential negative supercoils into DNA. The directionality of supercoiling is ensured by chiral wrapping of the DNA around a specialized domain of the enzyme before strand passage. Here we observe the activity of gyrase in real time by tracking the rotation of a submicrometre bead attached to the side of a stretched DNA molecule. In the presence of gyrase and ATP, we observe bursts of rotation corresponding to the processive, stepwise introduction of negative supercoils in strict multiples of two. Changes in DNA tension have no detectable effect on supercoiling velocity, but the enzyme becomes markedly less processive as tension is increased over a range of only a few tenths of piconewtons. This behaviour is quantitatively explained by a simple mechanochemical model in which processivity depends on a kinetic competition between dissociation and rapid, tension-sensitive DNA wrapping. In a high-resolution variant of our assay, we directly detect rotational pauses corresponding to two kinetic substeps: an ATP-independent step at the end of the reaction cycle, and an ATP-binding step in the middle of the cycle, subsequent to DNA wrapping.     

An aqueous extract of Liu Wei Di Huang Wan alters the labeling of blood constituents with Technetium-99m

The Liu Wei Di Huang Wan is a formula of a traditional Chinese medicine that is used to treat asthma patients and has been shown to have several important properties,such as antioxidant and free radical scavenging activities.The influence of an extract of Liu Wei Di Huang Wan on the labeling of blood constituents with technetium-99m was investigated.Anticoagulated blood(Wistar rats) was incubated with the extract,stannous chloride and technetium-99m,as sodium pertechnetate.Samples were centrifuged and aliquots of plasma and blood cells were separated and precipitated with trichloroacetic acid,to obtain soluble and insoluble fractions of the blood constituents.The percentage of radioactivity(%ATI) in all the fractions was determined.The analysis of the results shows that the extract at the highest concentration used(70 mg/mL) decreased significantly(P<0.05) the %ATI(from 96.48 ± 1.19 to 54.46 ± 7.38) on blood cells compartment,(from 81.11 ± 4.15 to 61.33 ± 4.74) on insoluble fractions of blood cells and(from 65.91 ± 2.44 to 13.15 ± 3.62) on insoluble fractions of plasma.In conclusion,the results suggest that the substances present on this extract can alter this labeling process,probably due to(i) redox properties(antioxidant and chelator activities) and/or(ii) specific actions in the binding sites where the 99mTc would be bound on the blood constituents.As a consequence,precaution is suggested on the interpretation of the nuclear medicine results from performed with blood constituents labeled with 99m Tc in patients that have undertaken LWDHW,although the current findings were obtained in experimental animal models.     

Stepwise replication identifies a low-producing lymphotoxin-alpha allele as a major risk factor for early-onset leprosy

Host genetics has an important role in leprosy, and variants in the shared promoter region of PARK2 and PACRG were the first major susceptibility factors identified by positional cloning. Here we report the linkage disequilibrium mapping of the second linkage peak of our previous genome-wide scan, located close to the HLA complex. In both a Vietnamese familial sample and an Indian case-control sample, the low-producing lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA)+80 A allele was significantly associated with an increase in leprosy risk (P = 0.007 and P = 0.01, respectively). Analysis of an additional case-control sample from Brazil and an additional familial sample from Vietnam showed that the LTA+80 effect was much stronger in young individuals. In the combined sample of 298 Vietnamese familial trios, the odds ratio of leprosy for LTA+80 AA/AC versus CC subjects was 2.11 (P = 0.000024), which increased to 5.63 (P = 0.0000004) in the subsample of 121 trios of affected individuals diagnosed before 16 years of age. In addition to identifying LTA as a major gene associated with early-onset leprosy, our study highlights the critical role of case- and population-specific factors in the dissection of susceptibility variants in complex diseases.