The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

Male-pattern baldness susceptibility locus at 20p11

We conducted a genome-wide association study for androgenic alopecia in 1,125 men and identified a newly associated locus at chromosome 20p11.22, confirmed in three independent cohorts (n = 1,650; OR = 1.60, P = 1.1 x 10(-14) for rs1160312). The one man in seven who harbors risk alleles at both 20p11.22 and AR (encoding the androgen receptor) has a sevenfold-increased odds of androgenic alopecia (OR = 7.12, P = 3.7 x 10(-15)).     

Common variants at TRAF3IP2 are associated with susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory joint disease that is distinct from other chronic arthritides and which is frequently accompanied by psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) and seronegativity for rheumatoid factor. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 609 German individuals with PsA (cases) and 990 controls with replication in 6 European cohorts including a total of 5,488 individuals. We replicated PsA associations at HLA-C and IL12B and identified a new association at TRAF3IP2 (rs13190932, P = 8.56 × 10?1?). TRAF3IP2 was also associated with PsV in a German cohort including 2,040 individuals (rs13190932, P = 1.95 × 10?3). Sequencing of the exons of TRAF3IP2 identified a coding variant (p.Asp10Asn, rs33980500) as the most significantly associated SNP (P = 1.13 × 10?2?, odds ratio = 1.95). Functional assays showed reduced binding of this TRAF3IP2 variant to TRAF6, suggesting altered modulation of immunoregulatory signals through altered TRAF interactions as a new and shared pathway for PsA and PsV.     

Animal behaviour: geomagnetic map used in sea-turtle navigation

Migratory animals capable of navigating to a specific destination, and of compensating for an artificial displacement into unfamiliar territory, are thought to have a compass for maintaining their direction of travel and a map sense that enables them to know their location relative to their destination. Compasses are based on environmental cues such as the stars, the Sun, skylight polarization and magnetism, but little is known about the sensory mechanism responsible for the map sense. Here we show that the green sea-turtle (Chelonia mydas) has a map that is at least partly based on geomagnetic cues.     

Increased seasonality in Middle East temperatures during the last interglacial period

The last interglacial period (about 125,000 years ago) is thought to have been at least as warm as the present climate. Owing to changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, it is thought that insolation in the Northern Hemisphere varied more strongly than today on seasonal timescales, which would have led to corresponding changes in the seasonal temperature cycle. Here we present seasonally resolved proxy records using corals from the northernmost Red Sea, which record climate during the last interglacial period, the late Holocene epoch and the present. We find an increased seasonality in the temperature recorded in the last interglacial coral. Today, climate in the northern Red Sea is sensitive to the North Atlantic Oscillation, a climate oscillation that strongly influences winter temperatures and precipitation in the North Atlantic region. From our coral records and simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model, we conclude that a tendency towards the high-index state of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last interglacial period, which is consistent with European proxy records, contributed to the larger amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Middle East.     

Dominant influence of HLA-B in mediating the potential co-evolution of HIV and HLA

The extreme polymorphism in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I region of the human genome is suggested to provide an advantage in pathogen defence mediated by CD8+ T cells. HLA class I molecules present pathogen-derived peptides on the surface of infected cells for recognition by CD8+ T cells. However, the relative contributions of HLA-A and -B alleles have not been evaluated. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the class I restricted CD8+ T-cell responses against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1), immune control of which is dependent upon virus-specific CD8+ T-cell activity. In 375 HIV-1-infected study subjects from southern Africa, a significantly greater number of CD8+ T-cell responses are HLA-B-restricted, compared to HLA-A (2.5-fold; P = 0.0033). Here we show that variation in viral set-point, in absolute CD4 count and, by inference, in rate of disease progression in the cohort, is strongly associated with particular HLA-B but not HLA-A allele expression (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.91, respectively). Moreover, substantially greater selection pressure is imposed on HIV-1 by HLA-B alleles than by HLA-A (4.4-fold, P = 0.0003). These data indicate that the principal focus of HIV-specific activity is at the HLA-B locus. Furthermore, HLA-B gene frequencies in the population are those likely to be most influenced by HIV disease, consistent with the observation that B alleles evolve more rapidly than A alleles. The dominant involvement of HLA-B in influencing HIV disease outcome is of specific relevance to the direction of HIV research and to vaccine design.     

Transmitter-evoked local calcium release stabilizes developing dendrites

In the central nervous system, dendritic arborizations of neurons undergo dynamic structural remodelling during development. Processes are elaborated, maintained or eliminated to attain the adult pattern of synaptic connections. Although neuronal activity influences this remodelling, it is not known how activity exerts its effects. Here we show that neurotransmission-evoked calcium (Ca(2+)) release from intracellular stores stabilizes dendrites during the period of synapse formation. Using a ballistic labelling method to load cells with Ca(2+) indicator dyes, we simultaneously monitored dendritic activity and structure in the intact retina. Two distinct patterns of spontaneous Ca(2+) increases occurred in developing retinal ganglion cells--global increases throughout the arborization, and local 'flashes' of activity restricted to small dendritic segments. Blockade of local, but not global, activity caused rapid retraction of dendrites. This retraction was prevented locally by focal uncaging of caged Ca(2+) that triggered Ca(2+) release from internal stores. Thus, local Ca(2+) release is a mechanism by which afferent activity can selectively and differentially regulate dendritic structure across the developing arborization.     

Influence of diglycyl-glycine on the radiation sensitivity of catalase

Zusammenfassung Die Veränderung der Strahlenempfindlichkeit von Katalase durch Diglycyl-glycin wurde spektralphotometrisch untersucht. Die Bestrahlungsdosen variierten zwischen 0–2,7 × 10⁶ r. Der Schutzeffekt lässt sich durch einen Radikal-abfangenden Mechanismus erklären. Strahlenbiologische Folgerungen werden diskutiert.