Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A small GTP-binding protein dissociates from synaptic vesicles during exocytosis.

Low-molecular-weight GTP-binding proteins are strong candidates for regulators of membrane traffic. In yeast, mutations in the sec4 or ypt1 genes encoding small GTP-binding proteins inhibit constitutive membrane flow at the plasma membrane or Golgi complex, respectively. It has been suggested that membrane fusion-fission events are regulated by cycling of small GTP-binding proteins between a membrane-bound and free state, but although most of these small proteins are found in both soluble and tightly membrane-bound forms, there is no direct evidence to support such cycling. In rat brain a small GTP-binding protein, rab3A, is exclusively associated with synaptic vesicles, the secretory organelles of nerve terminals. Here we use isolated nerve terminals to study the fate of rab3A during synaptic vesicle exocytosis. We find that rab3A dissociates quantitatively from the vesicle membrane after Ca2(+)-dependent exocytosis and that this dissociation is partially reversible during recovery after stimulation. These results are direct evidence for an association-dissociation cycle of a small GTP-binding protein during traffic of its host membrane.     

Fenton氧化工艺处理石油树脂生产废水研究

试验研究了难生物降解石油树脂生产废水Fenton氧化处理效果,考查了各影响因子最佳工艺条件.结果表明,在pH值为2.5、FeSO4投加量为800 mg·L-1、H2O2投加量为3000 mg·L-1、反应时间为2 h、反应温度为50～55℃的条件下,Fenton氧化工艺COD去除率为73%左右.将Fenton氧化处理水同低浓度含油废水混合后经进一步混凝沉淀处理,处理水COD值可降低至350 mg·L-1左右,达到了污水三级排放标准(COD<500 mg·L-1).     

基于从头算量化参数的BPx网络模型在吡啶类化合物pKa中的应用

用量子化学从头算RHF方法在6-31G水平下对吡啶类分子进行构型全优化,并用优化得到的量化参数作为反向传播人工神经网络的输入向量,并将此模型（人工神经网络）应用到吡啶类化合物pKa值的预测。将预测结果与多元线性回归算法的结果相比较。研究表明,所构造的人工神经网模型在预测吡啶类化合物的pKa值中得到满意的结果．     

用基因芯片技术分析干旱胁迫下生殖生长期大麦的基因表达

耐旱性是干旱地区稳定和增加大麦产量的一个关键因素。鉴定出与耐旱性相关的功能基因,一方面可了解大麦的耐旱机理,同时还可以促进利用生物技术来改良大麦的耐旱性。在研究中,2个在耐旱性上具有明显差异的大麦品种Tadmor(耐旱)和WI2291(干旱敏感)被选作材料,采用22000个ESTs(基因表达序列标签)的Affymetrix大麦基因芯片Barley1来分析生殖生长期干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料的差异表达基因。研究结果表明,干旱胁迫下2个大麦材料中有77个共调节基因,其中部分基因已被报道过可能与抗旱性相关。这些基因中已有功能注释的基因按其生物学功能被分为14组,猜测它们是干旱胁迫的响应基因,在抗旱性上可能不起重要作用,或者是必需的但单独不足以提高大麦的抗旱性。进一步比较2个材料差异表达的基因,发现二材料之间有372个受干旱调节基因的差异。这些基因中有功能注释基因的生物学功能中可分为15组,其中一些已被认为与抗旱性相关;而对那些未知功能的基因,推测可能亦在大麦的抗旱性上扮演一定的角色。研究所得结果可为阐述生殖生长期大麦的耐旱性机理提供新的认识。     

Genome sequencing in microfabricated high-density picolitre reactors

The proliferation of large-scale DNA-sequencing projects in recent years has driven a search for alternative methods to reduce time and cost. Here we describe a scalable, highly parallel sequencing system with raw throughput significantly greater than that of state-of-the-art capillary electrophoresis instruments. The apparatus uses a novel fibre-optic slide of individual wells and is able to sequence 25 million bases, at 99% or better accuracy, in one four-hour run. To achieve an approximately 100-fold increase in throughput over current Sanger sequencing technology, we have developed an emulsion method for DNA amplification and an instrument for sequencing by synthesis using a pyrosequencing protocol optimized for solid support and picolitre-scale volumes. Here we show the utility, throughput, accuracy and robustness of this system by shotgun sequencing and de novo assembly of the Mycoplasma genitalium genome with 96% coverage at 99.96% accuracy in one run of the machine.     

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations‐augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aberrant O-glycosylation and anti-glycan antibodies in an autoimmune disease IgA nephropathy and breast adenocarcinoma

Glycosylation abnormalities have been observed in autoimmune diseases and cancer. Here, we compare mechanisms of aberrant O-glycosylation, i.e., formation of Tn and sialyl-Tn structures, on MUC1 in breast cancer, and on IgA1 in an autoimmune disease, IgA nephropathy. The pathways of aberrant O-glycosylation, although different for MUC1 and IgA1, include dysregulation in glycosyltransferase expression, stability, and/or intracellular localization. Moreover, these aberrant glycoproteins are recognized by antibodies, although with different consequences. In breast cancer, elevated levels of antibodies recognizing aberrant MUC1 are associated with better outcome, whereas in IgA nephropathy, the antibodies recognizing aberrant IgA1 are part of the pathogenetic process.