Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning: Application in the Clothing Sector

Industrial sectors that operate in uncertain environments - with demand variability, product seasonality and different industrialisation structures - need studies that enable identification and forecast trends. Therefore, the development of competitiveness extends beyond a company’s individual performance. Collective action, whether toward consumer markets, supplier markets, competitors and substitutes, can reinforce or help reformulate the current practices of an organisation, besides providing better results in the development of strategies and competitive positioning. Thus, clothing, the sector addressed in this work, is characterised by a long, fragmented, heterogeneous production chain, the competitiveness of which is linked to product differentiation. Therefore, the use of systemic approaches to study this sector is effective. In this sense, this research aims at adapting Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning (STSP) so that it supports the development and planning process in a given sector. Thus, this research applies STSP adapted to an analysis of the clothing sector in the northern region of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. As a result, in academic terms, this research proposed and validated a method for analysing industrial sectors of the clothing industry. In the sectoral context, this research identified elements that leverage the sector’s competitiveness, besides generating knowledge and learning aimed at strengthening the sectoral structure identified, and fostering the formation of a new clothing cluster.     

A Pluto-like radius and a high albedo for the dwarf planet Eris from an occultation

The dwarf planet Eris is a trans-Neptunian object with an orbital eccentricity of 0.44, an inclination of 44 degrees and a surface composition very similar to that of Pluto. It resides at present at 95.7 astronomical units (1?AU is the Earth-Sun distance) from Earth, near its aphelion and more than three times farther than Pluto. Owing to this great distance, measuring its size or detecting a putative atmosphere is difficult. Here we report the observation of a multi-chord stellar occultation by Eris on 6 November 2010 UT. The event is consistent with a spherical shape for Eris, with radius 1,163?±?6?kilometres, density 2.52?±?0.05 grams per cm(3) and a high visible geometric albedo, Pv = 0.96(+0.09)(-0.04). No nitrogen, argon or methane atmospheres are detected with surface pressure larger than ～1?nanobar, about 10,000 times more tenuous than Pluto's present atmosphere. As Pluto's radius is estimated to be between 1,150 and 1,200 kilometres, Eris appears as a Pluto twin, with a bright surface possibly caused by a collapsed atmosphere, owing to its cold environment. We anticipate that this atmosphere may periodically sublimate as Eris approaches its perihelion, at 37.8 astronomical units from the Sun.     

The complete genome of an individual by massively parallel DNA sequencing

The association of genetic variation with disease and drug response, and improvements in nucleic acid technologies, have given great optimism for the impact of 'genomic medicine'. However, the formidable size of the diploid human genome, approximately 6 gigabases, has prevented the routine application of sequencing methods to deciphering complete individual human genomes. To realize the full potential of genomics for human health, this limitation must be overcome. Here we report the DNA sequence of a diploid genome of a single individual, James D. Watson, sequenced to 7.4-fold redundancy in two months using massively parallel sequencing in picolitre-size reaction vessels. This sequence was completed in two months at approximately one-hundredth of the cost of traditional capillary electrophoresis methods. Comparison of the sequence to the reference genome led to the identification of 3.3 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, of which 10,654 cause amino-acid substitution within the coding sequence. In addition, we accurately identified small-scale (2-40,000 base pair (bp)) insertion and deletion polymorphism as well as copy number variation resulting in the large-scale gain and loss of chromosomal segments ranging from 26,000 to 1.5 million base pairs. Overall, these results agree well with recent results of sequencing of a single individual by traditional methods. However, in addition to being faster and significantly less expensive, this sequencing technology avoids the arbitrary loss of genomic sequences inherent in random shotgun sequencing by bacterial cloning because it amplifies DNA in a cell-free system. As a result, we further demonstrate the acquisition of novel human sequence, including novel genes not previously identified by traditional genomic sequencing. This is the first genome sequenced by next-generation technologies. Therefore it is a pilot for the future challenges of 'personalized genome sequencing'.     

Validating a dust production model by field experiment in Mu Us Desert, China

It is essential for validation and improvement of a dust production model to perform field observations on dust emissions. The dust production model (DPM model) consists of two physically explicit sub-models, namely saltation model [1, 2] (eq. (1)) and sandblasting model [3] (eqs. (2) and (3)). Fh is saltation flux, E is fraction of erodible surface, C is a dimensional constant, ρa is air density, g is gravitational acceleration, U* is the wind friction velocity, Ut*(Dp) is threshold frict…     

Genome sequencing in microfabricated high-density picolitre reactors

The proliferation of large-scale DNA-sequencing projects in recent years has driven a search for alternative methods to reduce time and cost. Here we describe a scalable, highly parallel sequencing system with raw throughput significantly greater than that of state-of-the-art capillary electrophoresis instruments. The apparatus uses a novel fibre-optic slide of individual wells and is able to sequence 25 million bases, at 99% or better accuracy, in one four-hour run. To achieve an approximately 100-fold increase in throughput over current Sanger sequencing technology, we have developed an emulsion method for DNA amplification and an instrument for sequencing by synthesis using a pyrosequencing protocol optimized for solid support and picolitre-scale volumes. Here we show the utility, throughput, accuracy and robustness of this system by shotgun sequencing and de novo assembly of the Mycoplasma genitalium genome with 96% coverage at 99.96% accuracy in one run of the machine.     

Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market

The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study.