Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning: Application in the Clothing Sector

Industrial sectors that operate in uncertain environments - with demand variability, product seasonality and different industrialisation structures - need studies that enable identification and forecast trends. Therefore, the development of competitiveness extends beyond a company’s individual performance. Collective action, whether toward consumer markets, supplier markets, competitors and substitutes, can reinforce or help reformulate the current practices of an organisation, besides providing better results in the development of strategies and competitive positioning. Thus, clothing, the sector addressed in this work, is characterised by a long, fragmented, heterogeneous production chain, the competitiveness of which is linked to product differentiation. Therefore, the use of systemic approaches to study this sector is effective. In this sense, this research aims at adapting Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning (STSP) so that it supports the development and planning process in a given sector. Thus, this research applies STSP adapted to an analysis of the clothing sector in the northern region of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. As a result, in academic terms, this research proposed and validated a method for analysing industrial sectors of the clothing industry. In the sectoral context, this research identified elements that leverage the sector’s competitiveness, besides generating knowledge and learning aimed at strengthening the sectoral structure identified, and fostering the formation of a new clothing cluster.     

Molecular mechanism of anaerobic ammonium oxidation

Two distinct microbial processes, denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), are responsible for the release of fixed nitrogen as dinitrogen gas (N(2)) to the atmosphere. Denitrification has been studied for over 100 years and its intermediates and enzymes are well known. Even though anammox is a key biogeochemical process of equal importance, its molecular mechanism is unknown, but it was proposed to proceed through hydrazine (N(2)H(4)). Here we show that N(2)H(4) is produced from the anammox substrates ammonium and nitrite and that nitric oxide (NO) is the direct precursor of N(2)H(4). We resolved the genes and proteins central to anammox metabolism and purified the key enzymes that catalyse N(2)H(4) synthesis and its oxidation to N(2). These results present a new biochemical reaction forging an N-N bond and fill a lacuna in our understanding of the biochemical synthesis of the N(2) in the atmosphere. Furthermore, they reinforce the role of nitric oxide in the evolution of the nitrogen cycle.     

Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation

Atmospheric aerosols exert an important influence on climate through their effects on stratiform cloud albedo and lifetime and the invigoration of convective storms. Model calculations suggest that almost half of the global cloud condensation nuclei in the atmospheric boundary layer may originate from the nucleation of aerosols from trace condensable vapours, although the sensitivity of the number of cloud condensation nuclei to changes of nucleation rate may be small. Despite extensive research, fundamental questions remain about the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles and the mechanisms responsible, including the roles of galactic cosmic rays and other chemical species such as ammonia. Here we present the first results from the CLOUD experiment at CERN. We find that atmospherically relevant ammonia mixing ratios of 100 parts per trillion by volume, or less, increase the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles more than 100-1,000-fold. Time-resolved molecular measurements reveal that nucleation proceeds by a base-stabilization mechanism involving the stepwise accretion of ammonia molecules. Ions increase the nucleation rate by an additional factor of between two and more than ten at ground-level galactic-cosmic-ray intensities, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate. We find that ion-induced binary nucleation of H(2)SO(4)-H(2)O can occur in the mid-troposphere but is negligible in the boundary layer. However, even with the large enhancements in rate due to ammonia and ions, atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and sulphuric acid are insufficient to account for observed boundary-layer nucleation.     

Dense genotyping identifies and localizes multiple common and rare variant association signals in celiac disease

Using variants from the 1000 Genomes Project pilot European CEU dataset and data from additional resequencing studies, we densely genotyped 183 non-HLA risk loci previously associated with immune-mediated diseases in 12,041 individuals with celiac disease (cases) and 12,228 controls. We identified 13 new celiac disease risk loci reaching genome-wide significance, bringing the number of known loci (including the HLA locus) to 40. We found multiple independent association signals at over one-third of these loci, a finding that is attributable to a combination of common, low-frequency and rare genetic variants. Compared to previously available data such as those from HapMap3, our dense genotyping in a large sample collection provided a higher resolution of the pattern of linkage disequilibrium and suggested localization of many signals to finer scale regions. In particular, 29 of the 54 fine-mapped signals seemed to be localized to single genes and, in some instances, to gene regulatory elements. Altogether, we define the complex genetic architecture of the risk regions of and refine the risk signals for celiac disease, providing the next step toward uncovering the causal mechanisms of the disease.     

Genetic determinants of neuronal vulnerability to apoptosis

Apoptosis is a common mode of cell death that contributes to neuronal loss associated with neurodegeneration. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in chromosomal DNA are contributing factors dictating natural susceptibility of humans to disease. Here, the most common SNPs affecting neuronal vulnerability to apoptosis are reviewed in the context of neurological disorders. Polymorphic variants in genes encoding apoptotic proteins, either from the extrinsic (FAS, TNF-α, CASP8) or the intrinsic (BAX, BCL2, CASP3, CASP9) pathways could be highly valuable in the diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases and stroke. Interestingly, the Arg72Pro SNP in TP53, the gene encoding tumor suppressor p53, was recently revealed a biomarker of poor prognosis in stroke due to its ability to modulate neuronal apoptotic death. Search for new SNPs responsible for genetic variability to apoptosis will ensure the implementation of novel diagnostic and prognostic tools, as well as therapeutic strategies against neurological diseases.     

The DNA sequence and analysis of human chromosome 13

Chromosome 13 is the largest acrocentric human chromosome. It carries genes involved in cancer including the breast cancer type 2 (BRCA2) and retinoblastoma (RB1) genes, is frequently rearranged in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, and contains the DAOA locus associated with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We describe completion and analysis of 95.5 megabases (Mb) of sequence from chromosome 13, which contains 633 genes and 296 pseudogenes. We estimate that more than 95.4% of the protein-coding genes of this chromosome have been identified, on the basis of comparison with other vertebrate genome sequences. Additionally, 105 putative non-coding RNA genes were found. Chromosome 13 has one of the lowest gene densities (6.5 genes per Mb) among human chromosomes, and contains a central region of 38 Mb where the gene density drops to only 3.1 genes per Mb.     

Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market

The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study.