Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Neural Networks Considering Cointegration

This paper discusses techniques that might be helpful in predicting interest rates and tries to evaluate a new hybrid forecasting approach. Results of examining government bond yields in Germany and France reported in this study indicate that a hybrid forecasting approach which combines techniques of cointegration analysis with neural network (NN) forecasting models can produce superior results to the use of NN forecasting models alone. The findings documented in this paper could be a consequence of the fact that examining differenced data under certain conditions will lead to a loss of information and that the inclusion of the error correction term from the cointegration model can help to cope with this problem. The paper also discusses some possibly interesting directions for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptive divergence in pigment composition promotes phytoplankton biodiversity

The dazzling diversity of the phytoplankton has puzzled biologists for decades. The puzzle has been enlarged rather than solved by the progressive discovery of new phototrophic microorganisms in the oceans, including picocyanobacteria, pico-eukaryotes, and bacteriochlorophyll-based and rhodopsin-based phototrophic bacteria. Physiological and genomic studies suggest that natural selection promotes niche differentiation among these phototrophic microorganisms, particularly with respect to their photosynthetic characteristics. We have analysed competition for light between two closely related picocyanobacteria of the Synechococcus group that we isolated from the Baltic Sea. One of these two has a red colour because it contains the pigment phycoerythrin, whereas the other is blue-green because it contains high contents of the pigment phycocyanin. Here we report theory and competition experiments that reveal stable coexistence of the two picocyanobacteria, owing to partitioning of the light spectrum. Further competition experiments with a third marine cyanobacterium, capable of adapting its pigment composition, show that this species persists by investing in the pigment that absorbs the colour not used by its competitors. These results demonstrate the adaptive significance of divergence in pigment composition of phototrophic microorganisms, which allows an efficient utilization of light energy and favours species coexistence.     

Autistic-like behaviours and hyperactivity in mice lacking ProSAP1/Shank2

Autism spectrum disorders comprise a range of neurodevelopmental disorders characterized by deficits in social interaction and communication, and by repetitive behaviour. Mutations in synaptic proteins such as neuroligins, neurexins, GKAPs/SAPAPs and ProSAPs/Shanks were identified in patients with autism spectrum disorder, but the causative mechanisms remain largely unknown. ProSAPs/Shanks build large homo- and heteromeric protein complexes at excitatory synapses and organize the complex protein machinery of the postsynaptic density in a laminar fashion. Here we demonstrate that genetic deletion of ProSAP1/Shank2 results in an early, brain-region-specific upregulation of ionotropic glutamate receptors at the synapse and increased levels of ProSAP2/Shank3. Moreover, ProSAP1/Shank2(-/-) mutants exhibit fewer dendritic spines and show reduced basal synaptic transmission, a reduced frequency of miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents and enhanced N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor-mediated excitatory currents at the physiological level. Mutants are extremely hyperactive and display profound autistic-like behavioural alterations including repetitive grooming as well as abnormalities in vocal and social behaviours. By comparing the data on ProSAP1/Shank2(-/-) mutants with ProSAP2/Shank3αβ(-/-) mice, we show that different abnormalities in synaptic glutamate receptor expression can cause alterations in social interactions and communication. Accordingly, we propose that appropriate therapies for autism spectrum disorders are to be carefully matched to the underlying synaptopathic phenotype.     

Flying insects: model systems in exercise physiology

Insect flight is the most energy-demanding exercise known. It requires very effective coupling of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) hydrolysis and regeneration in the working flight muscles.³¹P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy of locust flight muscle in vivo has shown that flight causes only a small decrease in the content of ATP, whereas the free concentrations of inorganic phosphate (P _i ), adenosine diphosphate (ADP) and adenosine monophosphate (AMP) were estimated to increase by about 3-, 5- and 27-fold, respectively. These metabolites are potent activators of glycogen phosphorylase and phosphofructokinase (PFK). Activation of glycolysis by AMP and P _i is reinforced synergistically by fructose 2,6-bisphosphate (F2,6P₂), a very potent activator of PFK. During prolonged flight locusts gradually change from using carbohydrate to lipids as their main fuel. This requires a decrease in glycolytic flux which is brought about, at least in part, by a marked decrease in the content of F2,6P₂ in flight muscle (by 80% within 15 min of flight). The synthesis of F2,6P₂ in flight muscle can be stimulated by the nervous system via the biogenic amine octopamine. Octopamine and F2,6P₂ seem to be part of a mechanism to control the rate of carbohydrate oxidation in flight muscle and thus function in the metabolic integration of insect flight.Dedicated to Dr. Ernst Zebe, Emeritus Professor of Zoology (University of Münster) on the occasion of his 70th birthday.     

Environmental biosafety and transgenic potato in a centre of diversity for this crop

The Nuffield Council on Bioethics suggests that introgression of genetic material into related species in centres of crop biodiversity is an insufficient justification to bar the use of genetically modified crops in the developing world. They consider that a precautionary approach to forgo the possible benefits invokes the fallacy of thinking that doing nothing is itself without risk to the poor. Here we report findings relevant to this and other aspects of environmental biosafety for genetically modified potato in its main centre of biodiversity, the central Andes. We studied genetically modified potato clones that provide resistance to nematodes, principal pests of Andean potato crops. We show that there is no harm to many non-target organisms, but gene flow occurs to wild relatives growing near potato crops. If stable introgression were to result, the fitness of these wild species could be altered. We therefore transformed the male sterile cultivar Revolucion to provide a genetically modified nematode-resistant potato to evaluate the benefits that this provides until the possibility of stable introgression to wild relatives is determined. Thus, scientific progress is possible without compromise to the precautionary principle.     

岩石断裂韧度的国际联合试验研究

采用三点弯曲和短棒拉伸测试方法，进行了岩石（日本、美国和瑞典寄来的三批岩芯）断裂韧度的国际联合试验。结果表明：中国小组提交的试验结果准确、可靠；中国小组是唯一采用开发ＩＳＲＭ－Ｋ（１Ｃ）系统进行全部试验控制与进行数据、图形处理的国家。     

岩石动态断裂试验

对于ＩＮＳＴＲＯＮ试验机，开发了高速加载试验控制软件，并利用该软件进行岩石动态断裂韧度试验研究，试验表明：ＩＮＳＴＲＯＮ试验机和开发的软件结合，能对各种材料进行动态断裂试验，并能揭示岩石动态断裂韧度存在的某些特征，是在中等应变速率加载范围内进行高速加载试验的理想工具。     

单压下类岩材料有序多裂纹体的宏观力学性能

用高强度白水泥及石膏等类岩材料有序多裂纹模型进行了大量单向加压实验,得出了单压时宏观等效强度σc,等效弹性模量Ec及泊松比μ随裂纹群倾角a的变化规律,在一定程度上考虑了裂纹密度对宏观力学性能的影响,综合实验结果与理论分析,给出了多裂纹体强度特征曲线σ－a。