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Denisa Banulescu Gilbert Colletaz Christophe Hurlin Sessi Tokpavi 《Journal of forecasting》2016,35(3):224-249
This article proposes intraday high‐frequency risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high‐frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value‐at‐risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per‐time‐unit) VaR and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e. the time‐at‐risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedure for VaR and TaR for each trade or other market microstructure event. Subsequently, we perform a backtesting procedure specifically designed to assess the validity of the VaR and TaR forecasts on irregularly spaced data. The performance of the HFR measure is illustrated in an empirical application for two stocks (Bank of America and Microsoft) and an exchange‐traded fund based on Standard & Poor's 500 index. We show that the intraday HFR forecasts capture accurately the volatility and duration dynamics for these three assets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Riadh Hammami Benoit Fernandez Christophe Lacroix Ismail Fliss 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》2013,70(16):2947-2967
Bacteriocin production is a widespread phenomenon among bacteria. Bacteriocins hold great promise for the treatment of diseases caused by pathogenic bacteria and could be used in the future as alternatives to existing antibiotics. The anti-infective potential of bacteriocins for inhibiting pathogens has been shown in various food matrices including cheese, meat, and vegetables. However, their inhibition of pathogens in vivo remains unclear and needs more investigation, due mainly to difficulties associated with demonstrating their health benefits. Many bacteriocins produced by established or potential probiotic organisms have been evaluated as potential therapeutic agents and interesting findings have been documented in vitro as well as in a few in vivo studies. Some recent in vivo studies point to the efficacy of bacteriocin-based treatments of human and animal infections. While further investigation remains necessary before the possibilities for bacteriocins in clinical practice can be described more fully, this review provides an overview of their potential applications to human and veterinary health. 相似文献
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How dynamic signalling and extensive tissue rearrangements interact to generate complex patterns and shapes during embryogenesis is poorly understood. Here we characterize the signalling events taking place during early morphogenesis of chick skeletal muscles. We show that muscle progenitors present in somites require the transient activation of NOTCH signalling to undergo terminal differentiation. The NOTCH ligand Delta1 is expressed in a mosaic pattern in neural crest cells that migrate past the somites. Gain and loss of Delta1 function in neural crest modifies NOTCH signalling in somites, which results in delayed or premature myogenesis. Our results indicate that the neural crest regulates early muscle formation by a unique mechanism that relies on the migration of Delta1-expressing neural crest cells to trigger the transient activation of NOTCH signalling in selected muscle progenitors. This dynamic signalling guarantees a balanced and progressive differentiation of the muscle progenitor pool. 相似文献
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Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming. 相似文献
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PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans
Grall A Guaguère E Planchais S Grond S Bourrat E Hausser I Hitte C Le Gallo M Derbois C Kim GJ Lagoutte L Degorce-Rubiales F Radner FP Thomas A Küry S Bensignor E Fontaine J Pin D Zimmermann R Zechner R Lathrop M Galibert F André C Fischer J 《Nature genetics》2012,44(2):140-147
Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family. 相似文献
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This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Induction, suppression and requirement of RNA silencing pathways in virulent Agrobacterium tumefaciens infections 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Regulation of gene expression through microRNAs (miRNAs) and antiviral defense through small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) are aspects of RNA silencing, a process originally discovered as an unintended consequence of plant transformation by disarmed Agrobacterium tumefaciens strains. Although RNA silencing protects cells against foreign genetic elements, its defensive role against virulent, tumor-inducing bacteria has remained unexplored. Here, we show that siRNAs corresponding to transferred-DNA oncogenes initially accumulate in virulent A. tumefaciens-infected tissues and that RNA interference-deficient plants are hypersusceptible to the pathogen. Successful infection relies on a potent antisilencing state established in tumors whereby siRNA synthesis is specifically inhibited. This inhibition has only modest side effects on the miRNA pathway, shown here to be essential for disease development. The similarities and specificities of the A. tumefaciens RNA silencing interaction are discussed and contrasted with the situation encountered with plant viruses. 相似文献