Babylonian solar theory on the Antikythera mechanism

This article analyzes the angular spacing of the degree marks on the zodiac scale of the Antikythera mechanism and demonstrates that over the entire preserved 88° of the zodiac, the marks are systematically placed too close together to be consistent with a uniform distribution over 360°. Thus, in some other part of the zodiac scale (not preserved), the degree marks have been spaced farther apart. By contrast, the day marks on the Egyptian calendar scale are spaced uniformly, apart from minor errors. A solar equation of center is apparent which rises by nearly 2.7° over the preserved portion of the zodiac. The placement of the degree marks indicates that, in the preserved portion of the zodiac, the Sun was considered to run at a uniform pace of about 30° per synodic month, which is consistent with the Sun’s speed in the fast zone of the Babylonian solar theory of System A.

     

Molecular virology: was the 1918 flu avian in origin?

Taubenberger et al. claim that the 1918 influenza virus was derived from an avian source and adapted to humans shortly before the pandemic. However, we do not believe that this conclusion, which has been widely disseminated in the popular press and in scientific journals, is supported by their phylogenetic evidence.     

The planetary increase of brightness during retrograde motion: An explanandum constructed ad explanantem

In Ancient Greek two models were proposed for explaining the planetary motion: the homocentric spheres of Eudoxus and the Epicycle and Deferent System. At least in a qualitative way, both models could explain the retrograde motion, the most challenging phenomenon to be explained using circular motions. Nevertheless, there is another explanandum: during retrograde motion the planets increase their brightness. It is natural to interpret a change of brightness, i.e., of apparent size, as a change in distance. Now, while according to the Eudoxian model the planet is always equidistant from the earth, according to the epicycle and deferent system, the planet changes its distance from the earth, approaching to it during retrograde motion, just as observed. So, it is usually affirmed that the main reason for the rejection of Eudoxus' homocentric spheres in favor of the epicycle and deferent system was that the first cannot explain the manifest planetary increase of brightness during retrograde motion, while the second can. In this paper I will show that this historical hypothesis is not as firmly founded as it is usually believed to be.     

Rounding numbers: Ptolemy’s calculation of the Earth–Sun distance

In this article, I analyze the coincidence of the prediction of the Earth–Sun distance carried out by Ptolemy in his Almagest and the one he carried out, with another method, in the Planetary Hypotheses. In both cases, the values obtained for the Earth–Sun distance are very similar, so that the great majority of historians have suspected that Ptolemy altered or at least selected the data in order to obtain this agreement. In this article, I will provide a reconstruction of some way in which Ptolemy could have altered or selected the data and subsequently will try to argue in favor of its historical plausibility.     

Two problems in Aristarchus’s treatise on the sizes and distances of the sun and moon

The book of Aristarchus of Samos, On the distances and sizes of the sun and moon, is one of the few pre-Ptolemaic astronomical works that have come down to us in complete or nearly complete form. The simplicity and cleverness of the basic ideas behind the calculations are often obscured in the reading of the treatise by the complexity of the calculations and reasoning. Part of the complexity could be explained by the lack of trigonometry and part by the fact that Aristarchus appears unwilling to make some simplifications that could be simply taken for granted. But an important part of the complexities is due to some unnecessary inconsistencies, as recently discovered by Berggren and Sidoli (Arch Hist Exact Sci 61:213–254, 2007). In the first part of this paper, I will try to show that some of these inconsistencies are just apparent. But the complexity of the calculations and reasoning is not the only reason that could disturb a reader of the treatise. The great inaccuracy—even for the measurement methods and instruments available at those times—of one of the three input values of the treatise is really astonishing. In the sixth and last hypothesis, Aristarchus states that the moon’s apparent size is equal to 2 $^{\circ }$ , while the correct value is one-fourth of that. Some attempts have been made in order to explain such a big value, but all of them have problems. In the second part of this paper, I will propose a new speculative but plausible explanation of the origin of this value.     

Importance of migrating salmon smolt in Ring-Billed ( Larus delawarensis ) and California Gull ( L. californicus ) diets near Priest Rapids Dam, Washington

Ring-billed ( Larus delawarensis ) and California Gulls ( L. californicus ) have been implicated in depredations on migrating salmon smolt in the Columbia River. As part of a gull management program conducted in 1995 and 1996, we collected L. delawarensis (n = 120) and L. californicus (n = 45) near Priest Rapids Dam, Washington, and analyzed stomach contents to determine food habits and thus the importance of fish in gull diets. Percent volume measurements and index of relative importance rankings suggested a greater reliance on fish by L. californicus than by L. delawarensis . Peak percent consumption of fish by both species occurred in May, coinciding with peak salmon outmigration through Priest Rapids Dam; and for both species number of fish consumed by gulls was higher below Priest Rapids Dam. Gulls collected prior to, and after, peak smolt migration indicated low importance rankings for fish in both L. delawarensis and L. californicus diets. However, the importance ranking of fish in gull diets changed over time and was higher for both species as the smolt migration peaked in May.     

Did Ptolemy make novel predictions? Launching Ptolemaic astronomy into the scientific realism debate

The goal of this paper, both historical and philosophical, is to launch a new case into the scientific realism debate: geocentric astronomy. Scientific realism about unobservables claims that the non-observational content of our successful/justified empirical theories is true, or approximately true. The argument that is currently considered the best in favor of scientific realism is the No Miracles Argument: the predictive success of a theory that makes (novel) observational predictions while making use of non-observational content would be inexplicable unless such non-observational content approximately corresponds to the world “out there”. Laudan's pessimistic meta-induction challenged this argument, and realists reacted by moving to a “selective” version of realism: the approximately true part of the theory is not its full non-observational content but only the part of it that is responsible for the novel, successful observational predictions. Selective scientific realism has been tested against some of the theories in Laudan's list, but the first member of this list, geocentric astronomy, has been traditionally ignored. Our goal here is to defend that Ptolemy's Geocentrism deserves attention and poses a prima facie strong case against selective realism, since it made several successful, novel predictions based on theoretical hypotheses that do not seem to be retained, not even approximately, by posterior theories. Here, though, we confine our work just to the detailed reconstruction of what we take to be the main novel, successful Ptolemaic predictions, leaving the full analysis and assessment of their significance for the realist thesis to future works.