Active out-of-sequence thrust faulting in the central Nepalese Himalaya

Recent convergence between India and Eurasia is commonly assumed to be accommodated mainly along a single fault--the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT)--which reaches the surface in the Siwalik Hills of southern Nepal. Although this model is consistent with geodetic, geomorphic and microseismic data, an alternative model incorporating slip on more northerly surface faults has been proposed to be consistent with these data as well. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10Be data indicating a fourfold increase in millennial timescale erosion rates occurring over a distance of less than 2 km in central Nepal, delineating for the first time an active thrust fault nearly 100 km north of the surface expression of the MHT. These data challenge the view that rock uplift gradients in central Nepal reflect only passive transport over a ramp in the MHT. Instead, when combined with previously reported 40Ar-39Ar data, our results indicate persistent exhumation above deep-seated, surface-breaking structures at the foot of the high Himalaya. These results suggest that strong dynamic interactions between climate, erosion and tectonics have maintained a locus of active deformation well to the north of the Himalayan deformation front.     

Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny

Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.     

The Forecasting Efficacy of Risk‐Neutral Moments for Crude Oil Volatility

This paper examines the information content of implied volatility for crude oil options as it relates to future realized volatility. Using data for the period 1996 to 2011 we find that implied volatility is an effective predictor of the month‐ahead realized volatility. We show that implied volatility subsumes the information content of contemporaneous volatility, and it contains incremental information on future volatility after controlling for contemporaneous volatility. Furthermore, incorporating risk‐neutral skewness, and especially kurtosis, improves the forecasting of realized volatility. Overall, the association between implied volatility and month‐ahead realized volatility is consistent with evidence documented for other asset classes, leading us to conclude that implied volatility serves as a reasonable proxy for expected volatility. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Skew t distribution and its moments

A random variable X is said to have the skew-t distribution if its pdf is f(x)=2g(x)G(λx), where g(?) and G(?), respectively, denote the pdf and the cdf of the Student’s t distribution with degrees of freedom ν. The moments of this distribution appear not to have been studied in detail. In this paper, we derive general expressions for the nth moment of X by considering the cases ν odd and ν even separately. These expressions turn out to involve sums of the Gauss hypergeometric function. We also provide closed form expressions for the moments of X for the particular cases ν=2,…,10.