A combination of a particular HLA-DP beta allele and an HLA-DQ heterodimer confers susceptibility to coeliac disease

Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disease of the intestinal mucosa, elicited by ingestion of wheat gluten in genetically susceptible individuals. Susceptibility to coeliac disease has been associated with the serologically defined variants DR3 and DR7 of the class II antigens encoded by the HLA-D region. Three related class II antigens, each consisting of an alpha and a beta glycoprotein chain, have been identified and are designated HLA-DR, HLA-DQ, and HLA-DP. These highly polymorphic transmembrane proteins bind peptides derived from the processing of foreign antigens and present them to T lymphocytes; they also influence the specificity of the mature T-cell repertoire. The role of HLA-DP polymorphism in susceptibility has not been as fully explored as that of the other class II antigens because of the complexity of the primed lymphocyte typing (PLT) method for determining DPw specificities. Here we use a new DNA-based method of HLA-DP typing to analyse the distribution of DP beta alleles in a group of coeliac disease patients and healthy controls. Two specific DP beta alleles (DPB4.2 and DPB3) are increased in the patient population. Comparison of the DP beta sequences suggests that the polymorphic residues at position 69 and at 56 and 57 may be critical in conferring susceptibility. Further, the contribution of the susceptible DP beta alleles appears to be independent of linkage to the previously reported DR3 and DR7 markers for coeliac disease. The distribution of DQ alpha and beta alleles in patients suggests that a specific DQ heterodimer may be responsible for the observed DR associations. Individuals with both this DQ antigen and a specific DP beta allele are at increased risk for coeliac disease.     

A short gamma-ray burst apparently associated with an elliptical galaxy at redshift z = 0.225

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) come in two classes: long (> 2 s), soft-spectrum bursts and short, hard events. Most progress has been made on understanding the long GRBs, which are typically observed at high redshift (z approximately 1) and found in subluminous star-forming host galaxies. They are likely to be produced in core-collapse explosions of massive stars. In contrast, no short GRB had been accurately (< 10') and rapidly (minutes) located. Here we report the detection of the X-ray afterglow from--and the localization of--the short burst GRB 050509B. Its position on the sky is near a luminous, non-star-forming elliptical galaxy at a redshift of 0.225, which is the location one would expect if the origin of this GRB is through the merger of neutron-star or black-hole binaries. The X-ray afterglow was weak and faded below the detection limit within a few hours; no optical afterglow was detected to stringent limits, explaining the past difficulty in localizing short GRBs.     

PARX model for football match predictions

We propose an innovative approach to model and predict the outcome of football matches based on the Poisson autoregression with exogenous covariates (PARX) model recently proposed by Agosto, Cavaliere, Kristensen, and Rahbek (Journal of Empirical Finance, 2016, 38(B), 640–663). We show that this methodology is particularly suited to model the goal distribution of a football team and provides a good forecast performance that can be exploited to develop a profitable betting strategy. This paper improves the strand of literature on Poisson‐based models, by proposing a specification able to capture the main characteristics of goal distribution. The betting strategy is based on the idea that the odds proposed by the market do not reflect the true probability of the match because they may also incorporate the betting volumes or strategic price settings in order to exploit betters' biases. The out‐of‐sample performance of the PARX model is better than the reference approach by Dixon and Coles (Applied Statistics, 1997, 46(2), 265–280). We also evaluate our approach in a simple betting strategy, which is applied to English football Premier League data for the 2013–2014, 2014–2015, and 2015–2016 seasons. The results show that the return from the betting strategy is larger than 30% in most of the cases considered and may even exceed 100% if we consider an alternative strategy based on a predetermined threshold, which makes it possible to exploit the inefficiency of the betting market.     

Arginine-vasotocin and gonadal activity in the lizard,Podarcis s. sicula Raf.

Summary Arginine-vasotocine (AVT) injected into male adult lizards,Podarcis s. sicula Raf., inhibits the last phases of spermatogenesis and the endocrine activity of gonads. In female lizards the substance induces an early interruption of egg deposition.     

An unexpectedly rapid decline in the X-ray afterglow emission of long gamma-ray bursts

'Long' gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are commonly accepted to originate in the explosion of particularly massive stars, which give rise to highly relativistic jets. Inhomogeneities in the expanding flow result in internal shock waves that are believed to produce the gamma-rays we see. As the jet travels further outward into the surrounding circumstellar medium, 'external' shocks create the afterglow emission seen in the X-ray, optical and radio bands. Here we report observations of the early phases of the X-ray emission of five GRBs. Their X-ray light curves are characterised by a surprisingly rapid fall-off for the first few hundred seconds, followed by a less rapid decline lasting several hours. This steep decline, together with detailed spectral properties of two particular bursts, shows that violent shock interactions take place in the early jet outflows.     

The association of GRB 060218 with a supernova and the evolution of the shock wave

Although the link between long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and supernovae has been established, hitherto there have been no observations of the beginning of a supernova explosion and its intimate link to a GRB. In particular, we do not know how the jet that defines a gamma-ray burst emerges from the star's surface, nor how a GRB progenitor explodes. Here we report observations of the relatively nearby GRB 060218 (ref. 5) and its connection to supernova SN 2006aj (ref. 6). In addition to the classical non-thermal emission, GRB 060218 shows a thermal component in its X-ray spectrum, which cools and shifts into the optical/ultraviolet band as time passes. We interpret these features as arising from the break-out of a shock wave driven by a mildly relativistic shell into the dense wind surrounding the progenitor. We have caught a supernova in the act of exploding, directly observing the shock break-out, which indicates that the GRB progenitor was a Wolf-Rayet star.     

Gamma-ray bursts: huge explosion in the early Universe

Long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are bright flashes of high-energy photons that can last for tens of minutes; they are generally associated with galaxies that have a high rate of star formation and probably arise from the collapsing cores of massive stars, which produce highly relativistic jets (collapsar model). Here we describe gamma- and X-ray observations of the most distant GRB ever observed (GRB 050904): its redshift (z) of 6.29 means that this explosion happened 12.8 billion years ago, corresponding to a time when the Universe was just 890 million years old, close to the reionization era. This means that not only did stars form in this short period of time after the Big Bang, but also that enough time had elapsed for them to evolve and collapse into black holes.