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We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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How People Use Rich Pictures to Help Them Think and Act 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Groups of all kinds are complex organisations. To understand them and to facilitate them in process terms is a matter of rich and diverse discourse in varied fields from sustainable development to coastal ecology; from bandwidth in rural communities to health service provision. How to allow groups to discourse, problem solve and review their own issues and concerns? Diagrams in general and rich pictures in particular can be great means to allow groups to explore their subconscious, their occult sentiments and conflicted understandings. This paper explores and explains diverse use of pictures and shows how they can be applied and understood in group processes of all kinds. 相似文献
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Milne JC Lambert PD Schenk S Carney DP Smith JJ Gagne DJ Jin L Boss O Perni RB Vu CB Bemis JE Xie R Disch JS Ng PY Nunes JJ Lynch AV Yang H Galonek H Israelian K Choy W Iffland A Lavu S Medvedik O Sinclair DA Olefsky JM Jirousek MR Elliott PJ Westphal CH 《Nature》2007,450(7170):712-716
Calorie restriction extends lifespan and produces a metabolic profile desirable for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. SIRT1, an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, is a principal modulator of pathways downstream of calorie restriction that produce beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity. Resveratrol, a polyphenolic SIRT1 activator, mimics the anti-ageing effects of calorie restriction in lower organisms and in mice fed a high-fat diet ameliorates insulin resistance, increases mitochondrial content, and prolongs survival. Here we describe the identification and characterization of small molecule activators of SIRT1 that are structurally unrelated to, and 1,000-fold more potent than, resveratrol. These compounds bind to the SIRT1 enzyme-peptide substrate complex at an allosteric site amino-terminal to the catalytic domain and lower the Michaelis constant for acetylated substrates. In diet-induced obese and genetically obese mice, these compounds improve insulin sensitivity, lower plasma glucose, and increase mitochondrial capacity. In Zucker fa/fa rats, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies demonstrate that SIRT1 activators improve whole-body glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, skeletal muscle and liver. Thus, SIRT1 activation is a promising new therapeutic approach for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. 相似文献
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About ten per cent of the known extrasolar planets are gas giants that orbit very close to their parent stars. The atmospheres of these 'hot Jupiters' are heated by the immense stellar irradiation. In the case of the planet HD 209458b, this energy deposition results in a hydrodynamic state in the upper atmosphere, allowing for sizeable expansion and escape of neutral hydrogen gas. HD 209458b was the first extrasolar planet discovered that transits in front of its parent star. The size of the planet can be measured using the total optical obscuration of the stellar disk during an observed transit, and the structure and composition of the planetary atmosphere can be studied using additional planetary absorption signatures in the stellar spectrum. Here we report the detection of absorption by hot hydrogen in the atmosphere of HD 209458b. Previously, the lower atmosphere and the full extended upper atmosphere of HD 209458b have been observed, whereas here we probe a layer where the escaping gas forms in the upper atmosphere of HD 209458b. 相似文献
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Mackereth CD Madl T Bonnal S Simon B Zanier K Gasch A Rybin V Valcárcel J Sattler M 《Nature》2011,475(7356):408-411
Many cellular functions involve multi-domain proteins, which are composed of structurally independent modules connected by flexible linkers. Although it is often well understood how a given domain recognizes a cognate oligonucleotide or peptide motif, the dynamic interaction of multiple domains in the recognition of these ligands remains to be characterized. Here we have studied the molecular mechanisms of the recognition of the 3'-splice-site-associated polypyrimidine tract RNA by the large subunit of the human U2 snRNP auxiliary factor (U2AF65) as a key early step in pre-mRNA splicing. We show that the tandem RNA recognition motif domains of U2AF65 adopt two remarkably distinct domain arrangements in the absence or presence of a strong (that is, high affinity) polypyrimidine tract. Recognition of sequence variations in the polypyrimidine tract RNA involves a population shift between these closed and open conformations. The equilibrium between the two conformations functions as a molecular rheostat that quantitatively correlates the natural variations in polypyrimidine tract nucleotide composition, length and functional strength to the efficiency to recruit U2 snRNP to the intron during spliceosome assembly. Mutations that shift the conformational equilibrium without directly affecting RNA binding modulate splicing activity accordingly. Similar mechanisms of cooperative multi-domain conformational selection may operate more generally in the recognition of degenerate nucleotide or amino acid motifs by multi-domain proteins. 相似文献