Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disruption of calcitonin gene-related peptide signaling accelerates muscle denervation and dampens cytotoxic neuroinflammation in SOD1 mutant mice

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal motor neuron disease. Neuronal vacuolization and glial activation are pathologic hallmarks in the superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) mouse model of ALS. Previously, we found the neuropeptide calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) associated with vacuolization and astrogliosis in the spinal cord of these mice. We now show that CGRP abundance positively correlated with the severity of astrogliosis, but not vacuolization, in several motor and non-motor areas throughout the brain. SOD1 mice harboring a genetic depletion of the βCGRP isoform showed reduced CGRP immunoreactivity associated with vacuolization, while motor functions, body weight, survival, and astrogliosis were not altered. When CGRP signaling was completely disrupted through genetic depletion of the CGRP receptor component, receptor activity-modifying protein 1 (RAMP1), hind limb muscle denervation, and loss of muscle performance were accelerated, while body weight and survival were not affected. Dampened neuroinflammation, i.e., reduced levels of astrogliosis in the brain stem already in the pre-symptomatic disease stage, and reduced microgliosis and lymphocyte infiltrations during the late disease phase were additional neuropathology features in these mice. On the molecular level, mRNA expression levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and those of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin 6 (IL-6) were elevated, while those of several pro-inflammatory cytokines found reduced in the brain stem of RAMP1-deficient SOD1 mice at disease end stage. Our results thus identify an important, possibly dual role of CGRP in ALS pathogenesis.     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

Identification of stem cells in small intestine and colon by marker gene Lgr5

The intestinal epithelium is the most rapidly self-renewing tissue in adult mammals. It is currently believed that four to six crypt stem cells reside at the +4 position immediately above the Paneth cells in the small intestine; colon stem cells remain undefined. Lgr5 (leucine-rich-repeat-containing G-protein-coupled receptor 5, also known as Gpr49) was selected from a panel of intestinal Wnt target genes for its restricted crypt expression. Here, using two knock-in alleles, we reveal exclusive expression of Lgr5 in cycling columnar cells at the crypt base. In addition, Lgr5 was expressed in rare cells in several other tissues. Using an inducible Cre knock-in allele and the Rosa26-lacZ reporter strain, lineage-tracing experiments were performed in adult mice. The Lgr5-positive crypt base columnar cell generated all epithelial lineages over a 60-day period, suggesting that it represents the stem cell of the small intestine and colon. The expression pattern of Lgr5 suggests that it marks stem cells in multiple adult tissues and cancers.     

Observation of ferrotoroidic domains

Domains are of unparalleled technological importance as they are used for information storage and for electronic, magnetic and optical switches. They are an essential property of any ferroic material. Three forms of ferroic order are widely known: ferromagnetism, a spontaneous magnetization; ferroelectricity, a spontaneous polarization; and ferroelasticity, a spontaneous strain. It is currently debated whether to include an ordered arrangement of magnetic vortices as a fourth form of ferroic order, termed ferrotoroidicity. Although there are reasons to expect this form of order from the point of view of thermodynamics, a crucial hallmark of the ferroic state--that is, ferrotoroidic domains--has not hitherto been observed. Here ferrotoroidic domains are spatially resolved by optical second harmonic generation in LiCoPO4, where they coexist with independent antiferromagnetic domains. Their space- and time-asymmetric nature relates ferrotoroidics to multiferroics with magnetoelectric phase control and to other systems in which space and time asymmetry leads to possibilities for future applications.     

14-3-3sigma controls mitotic translation to facilitate cytokinesis

14-3-3 proteins are crucial in a wide variety of cellular responses including cell cycle progression, DNA damage checkpoints and apoptosis. One particular 14-3-3 isoform, sigma, is a p53-responsive gene, the function of which is frequently lost in human tumours, including breast and prostate cancers as a result of either hypermethylation of the 14-3-3sigma promoter or induction of an oestrogen-responsive ubiquitin ligase that specifically targets 14-3-3sigma for proteasomal degradation. Loss of 14-3-3sigma protein occurs not only within the tumours themselves but also in the surrounding pre-dysplastic tissue (so-called field cancerization), indicating that 14-3-3sigma might have an important tumour suppressor function that becomes lost early in the process of tumour evolution. The molecular basis for the tumour suppressor function of 14-3-3sigma is unknown. Here we report a previously unknown function for 14-3-3sigma as a regulator of mitotic translation through its direct mitosis-specific binding to a variety of translation/initiation factors, including eukaryotic initiation factor 4B in a stoichiometric manner. Cells lacking 14-3-3sigma, in marked contrast to normal cells, cannot suppress cap-dependent translation and do not stimulate cap-independent translation during and immediately after mitosis. This defective switch in the mechanism of translation results in reduced mitotic-specific expression of the endogenous internal ribosomal entry site (IRES)-dependent form of the cyclin-dependent kinase Cdk11 (p58 PITSLRE), leading to impaired cytokinesis, loss of Polo-like kinase-1 at the midbody, and the accumulation of binucleate cells. The aberrant mitotic phenotype of 14-3-3sigma-depleted cells can be rescued by forced expression of p58 PITSLRE or by extinguishing cap-dependent translation and increasing cap-independent translation during mitosis by using rapamycin. Our findings show how aberrant mitotic translation in the absence of 14-3-3sigma impairs mitotic exit to generate binucleate cells and provides a potential explanation of how 14-3-3sigma-deficient cells may progress on the path to aneuploidy and tumorigenesis.     

Adaptive subwavelength control of nano-optical fields

Adaptive shaping of the phase and amplitude of femtosecond laser pulses has been developed into an efficient tool for the directed manipulation of interference phenomena, thus providing coherent control over various quantum-mechanical systems. Temporal resolution in the femtosecond or even attosecond range has been demonstrated, but spatial resolution is limited by diffraction to approximately half the wavelength of the light field (that is, several hundred nanometres). Theory has indicated that the spatial limitation to coherent control can be overcome with the illumination of nanostructures: the spatial near-field distribution was shown to depend on the linear chirp of an irradiating laser pulse. An extension of this idea to adaptive control, combining multiparameter pulse shaping with a learning algorithm, demonstrated the generation of user-specified optical near-field distributions in an optimal and flexible fashion. Shaping of the polarization of the laser pulse provides a particularly efficient and versatile nano-optical manipulation method. Here we demonstrate the feasibility of this concept experimentally, by tailoring the optical near field in the vicinity of silver nanostructures through adaptive polarization shaping of femtosecond laser pulses and then probing the lateral field distribution by two-photon photoemission electron microscopy. In this combination of adaptive control and nano-optics, we achieve subwavelength dynamic localization of electromagnetic intensity on the nanometre scale and thus overcome the spatial restrictions of conventional optics. This experimental realization of theoretical suggestions opens a number of perspectives in coherent control, nano-optics, nonlinear spectroscopy, and other research fields in which optical investigations are carried out with spatial or temporal resolution.