Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States

The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use survey data on five bilateral exchange rates to provide empirical evidence of the fact that professional forecasters of foreign exchange rates behave irrationally, in the specific sense that they respond inaccurately to available information in the market when forming their predictions. In particular, we find systematic biases in the forecasts resulting in the overreaction of analysts to past information contained in the exchange rate dynamics: forecasters change their prediction more than it would be rational on the basis of past realized changes. In addition, forecasters are heterogeneous in their irrationality: low performers in previous periods show a more pronounced overreaction effect. This can be read as an indication of perpetration of past errors and continued inability to learn from the past. In the second part of the paper, we exploit the novel structure of our dataset, which consists of survey data extracted from the Bloomberg platform and readily available to anyone. This feature allows us to consider their own and others' past forecasts as part of the information set that analysts use in making their predictions. By using past forecasts as proxies for relevant macroeconomic variables, we find evidence that analysts fail to correctly process not only the information contained in the spot rate past dynamics but also the information in this broader set. We see this as confirmation of the existence of inefficiency and heterogeneity between low and high performers also when full information is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MDR1, cholesterol certification and cell growth: a comparative study in normal and multidrug-resistant KB cell lines

The product of the MDR1 gene (P-gp) has been implicated in the transport of cholesterol from plasma membrane to endoplasmic reticulum for esterification. In previous studies on leukemia cell lines, we suggested that cholesterol esterification may regulate the rate of cell growth and that the MDR1 gene might be involved in this process by modulating intracellular cholesterol esters levels. To further investigate this matter, the rate of cell growth, cholesterol metabolism, expression of the MDR1 gene, and P-gp activity were compared in KB cell lines displaying differences in expression and function of P-gp (drug-sensitive phenotype versus MDR phenotype). The rate of cell growth correlated with cholesterol esterification in all KB cell lines, whereas the over-expression of MDR1 observed in the MDR cell lines was not always associated with an increased capacity of cells to esterify cholesterol. Two known inhibitors of P-gp activity, progesterone and verapamil, strongly inhibited both cholesterol esterification and cell proliferation in all KB cell lines, but they affected intracellular accumulation of labeled vinblastine only in MDR cell lines. These results further support a role for cholesterol esters in the regulation of cell growth and suggest that the P-gp expressed in MDR KB cells is not involved in the general process leading to cholesterol esterification. Received 14 February 2000; received after revision 10 April 2000; accepted 8 May 2000     

CDMA系统及其降噪的实验方法：系统设计到硬件测试所通过的超大规模集成电路

本书介绍了意大利比萨大学一个团队的开发项目——CDMA移动终端接受器．以及从中获取的经验，为通信理论到VLSI实现建立了一座桥梁，呈现了从最初系统设计到最终硬件测试所需要的电信和电子相关知识，主要目的是为通信电路的设计提供理论和实践上的支持。书中介绍的知识和技术可以运用到更一般的无线调制解调器的构架设计和实现。     

硫辅助填充高压Fe5C2/Fe7C3单晶相的碳纳米管研究

硫可以用作生长促进剂制备具有不同形态的碳纳米结构, 例如: Y型和海胆状结构, 单壁碳纳米管(SWCNTs), 双壁碳纳米管薄膜等. 此外, 研究表明低浓度的硫和低气体流量可实现碳纳米管中高压Fe7C3和Fe5C2相晶体的填充. 然而, 碳纳米管中高压相的填充条件以及连续垂直取向的碳纳米管薄膜的合成和形貌控制的条件尚需进一步研究. 本文采用化学气相沉积(CVD),使用硫和二茂铁的混合物作为生长促进剂和碳源, 在氩(Ar)气环境中将Si/SiO2基底作为局部生长区域, 实现了在碳纳米管内填充碳化铁相, 并通过对所得碳结构进行详细表征, 揭示填充的碳化物相(Fe5C2和Fe7C3)之间可能存在结合, 这些结果在磁数据存储方面将有潜在应用.     

Monthly Employment Indicators of the Euro Area and Larger Member States: Real‐Time Analysis of Indirect Estimates

The paper presents a comparative real‐time analysis of alternative indirect estimates relative to monthly euro area employment. In the experiment quarterly employment is temporally disaggregated using monthly unemployment as related series. The strategies under comparison make use of the contribution of sectoral data of the euro area and its six larger member states. The comparison is carried out among univariate temporal disaggregations of the Chow and Lin type and multivariate structural time series models of small and medium size. Specifications in logarithms are also systematically assessed. All multivariate set‐ups, up to 49 series modelled simultaneously, are estimated via the EM algorithm. Main conclusions are that mean revision errors of disaggregated estimates are overall small, a gain is obtained when the model strategy takes into account the information by both sector and member state and that larger multivariate set‐ups perform very well, with several advantages with respect to simpler models.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical compass model of avian magnetoreception

Approximately 50 species, including birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, crustaceans and insects, are known to use the Earth's magnetic field for orientation and navigation. Birds in particular have been intensively studied, but the biophysical mechanisms that underlie the avian magnetic compass are still poorly understood. One proposal, based on magnetically sensitive free radical reactions, is gaining support despite the fact that no chemical reaction in vitro has been shown to respond to magnetic fields as weak as the Earth's ( approximately 50 muT) or to be sensitive to the direction of such a field. Here we use spectroscopic observation of a carotenoid-porphyrin-fullerene model system to demonstrate that the lifetime of a photochemically formed radical pair is changed by application of < or =50 microT magnetic fields, and to measure the anisotropic chemical response that is essential for its operation as a chemical compass sensor. These experiments establish the feasibility of chemical magnetoreception and give insight into the structural and dynamic design features required for optimal detection of the direction of the Earth's magnetic field.