Variations in Variation and Selection: The Ubiquity of the Variation-and-Selective-Retention Ratchet in Emergent Organizational Complexity, Part II: Quantum Field Theory

If the general arguments concerning theinvolvement of variation and selection inexplanations of ``fit'' are valid, then variationand selection explanations should beappropriate, or at least potentiallyappropriate, outside the paradigm historisticdomains of biology and knowledge. In thisdiscussion, I wish to indicate some potentialroles for variation and selection infoundational physics – specifically inquantum field theory. I will not be attemptingany full coherent ontology for quantum fieldtheory – none currently exists, and none islikely for at least the short term future. Instead, I wish to engage in some partiallyspeculative interpretations of some interestingresults in this area with the aim ofdemonstrating that variation and selectionnotions might play a role even here. Ifvariation and selection can survive in even asinhospitable and non-paradigmatic a terrain asfoundational physics, then it can surviveanywhere.     

A calcium sensor in the sodium channel modulates cardiac excitability.

Sodium channels are principal molecular determinants responsible for myocardial conduction and maintenance of the cardiac rhythm. Calcium ions (Ca2+) have a fundamental role in the coupling of cardiac myocyte excitation and contraction, yet mechanisms whereby intracellular Ca2+ may directly modulate Na channel function have yet to be identified. Here we show that calmodulin (CaM), a ubiquitous Ca2+-sensing protein, binds to the carboxy-terminal 'IQ' domain of the human cardiac Na channel (hH1) in a Ca2+-dependent manner. This binding interaction significantly enhances slow inactivation-a channel-gating process linked to life-threatening idiopathic ventricular arrhythmias. Mutations targeted to the IQ domain disrupted CaM binding and eliminated Ca2+/CaM-dependent slow inactivation, whereas the gating effects of Ca2+/CaM were restored by intracellular application of a peptide modelled after the IQ domain. A naturally occurring mutation (A1924T) in the IQ domain altered hH1 function in a manner characteristic of the Brugada arrhythmia syndrome, but at the same time inhibited slow inactivation induced by Ca2+/CaM, yielding a clinically benign (arrhythmia free) phenotype.     

南澳岛及其附近岛屿夏季鸟类的初步调查

作者一行于 2 0 0 1年夏季对南澳及其附近岛屿的鸟类资源状况进行了调查研究 .结果发现 ,南澳及其附近岛屿有鸟类 51种 ,隶属 1 3目 2 8科 ,其中雀形目 2 3种 ,占所发现种类的 45% ,非雀形目 2 8种 ,占 55% ;国家一、二级保护动物各一种 ,分别为 :白腹军舰鸟 (F regataandrewsi)和岩鹭 (Egretta sacra) .按鸟类的栖息和迁徙习惯划分 ,有海鸟 8种 ,湿地候鸟 2种 ,湿地留鸟 9种 ,陆地候鸟 4种 ,陆地留鸟 2 8种 .在所有鸟类中以褐翅燕鸥 (Sterna anae-thetus)为优势种 ,数量最大 ,分布最广 .     

Combining multivariate volatility forecasts using weighted losses

The ability to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance by combining forecasts is well established in the literature. This paper advances this literature in the area of multivariate volatility forecasts by developing two combination weighting schemes that exploit volatility persistence to emphasise certain losses within the combination estimation period. A comprehensive empirical analysis of the out-of-sample forecast performance across varying dimensions, loss functions, sub-samples and forecast horizons show that new approaches significantly outperform their counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy. Within the financial applications considered, significant benefits from combination forecasts relative to the individual candidate models are observed. Although the more sophisticated combination approaches consistently rank higher relative to the equally weighted approach, their performance is statistically indistinguishable given the relatively low power of these loss functions. Finally, within the applications, further analysis highlights how combination forecasts dramatically reduce the variability in the parameter of interest, namely the portfolio weight or beta.