Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD

We investigate the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD over the past three decades. We find that 60% of real‐GDP forecast series and 37% of GDP‐deflator forecast series are consistent with rationality. Forecast smoothing is found in real‐GDP forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于循环修正思路的低碳经济评价模型研究——以秦皇岛市低碳经济评价为例

根据科学发展观的内涵筛选指标建立低碳经济评价指标体系;通过层次分析法、标准离差、熵权法等赋权方法进行赋权,并以秦皇岛市的低碳经济为例进行评价,确定秦皇岛低碳经济评价结果排序.根据循环修正思路对不同赋权方法的评价结果排序进行修正,确定一致性排序,得到秦皇岛市低碳经济评价结果.研究结果表明:秦皇岛市低碳经济发展水平逐年提高;影响秦皇岛市低碳经济发展的主要指标有污水处理率,GDP,人均GDP,人均GDP增长速度,危险废物,生活垃圾无害化处理率,万元GDP能耗等.     

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal eetension

When quantitative models are used for short-term multi-item sales forecasts it is possible that the managers who use such forecasts may disagree with at least some of the estimates obtained, and wish to change them so that they become more consistent with their own (subjective) evaluation of the marketplace. This study reports on an analysis of the effectiveness of judgemental revision of sales forecasts over six quarterly forecasting periods. The results give general support for the practice of forecast manipulation as a means of improving forecasting accuracy. It is also observed that the effectiveness of revision activity varies across different time periods.     

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

When managers make revisions to sales forecasts initially generated by a rational quantitative model it is important that the particular forecasts selected for adjustment are those which would benefit most from the adjustment process (i.e. realize high errors). This study reports an empirical investigation on this issue, spanning six quarterly forecasting periods and incorporating forecasting data on over 850 products. The results show that the errors of the forecasts chosen for revision are, in general, higher than those which were not chosen. In addition, it is shown that managesrs tend to revise forecasts which are initially low, hence possibily introducing some degree of bias into the overall forecasts.     

内蒙古小网蝽外生殖器特征及国内新纪录(半翅目;异翅亚目;网蝽科)

作者重新整理了内蒙古小网蝽属昆虫标本,并对雄虫外生殖器及雌虫第一生殖肢进行了解剖观察。在此基础上,对内蒙古小网蝽作了修订,简要描述了两性外生殖器的主要特征,并记述了2中国新纪录种:黑腿小网蝽Agramma femorale Thomson,1871,淡须小网蝽A. abruptifrons Golub, 1989。     

基于标准差修正群组G1的组合赋权方法研究

旨在研究群组决策中的赋权问题.首先,对专家给出的不同排序进行一致性检验,淘汰未通过一致性检验的专家排序,其次,通过循环修正的思路统一通过一致性检验的不同专家给出的指标重要性排序,得到集成不同专家意见的一个理想排序;最后,计算评价指标的标准差,利用相邻指标的标准差大小确定两个指标的重要性之比,建立基于标准差修正群组G1组合赋权模型确定指标的组合权重.组合赋权模型解决了主客观组合赋权中主客观权重的分配问题,且保证了由该模型计算的组合权重既能反映出群组专家的意见,又能反映出指标的数据信息.     

木材冲击韧性含水率修正模型的研究

对杉木和茅栗两种木材含水率为9%、10%、11%、12%、13%、14%、15%时的木材弦向冲击韧性进行了测试,并测定含水率为12%时木材径向冲击韧性,同时在现有标准冲击韧性含水率计算模型基础上建立修订模型。试验结果表明：杉木的径向冲击韧性平均值为46.112 kJ/m2,弦向冲击韧性平均值为37.514 kJ/m2;茅栗径向的冲击韧性平均值为82.994 kJ/m2,弦向的平均值为76.271 kJ/m2,在0.05水平上经t检验差异均显著。建议在修订《木材冲击韧性试验方法》标准时,增加冲击韧性含水率修订模型A12=AW[1+0.02(W-12)]和径向冲击韧性试验部分内容。     

《河南植物志》罂粟科增补与订正

增补报道了《河南植物志》中未记录的河南产罂粟科植物7种,订正了一些分类群的学名.     

试析“论题”的多义性

论述了论题多义性产生的原因和论题多义性导致的负面价值,对论题这一术语进行了修正,认为：逻辑学的论题与议论文的论点具有完全同一性;议论文的论题和论点具有局部同一性;论点的提法实现了中英文语义的内涵与外延的同一。     

明朝洱源“何氏作家群”作家亲属关系及生平

通过对第一手文献资料的阅读,对今人编写的<洱源县志>所记载的明朝洱源"何氏作家群"作家亲属关系的错误之处、作家的生平事迹的不明之处进行了考订.指出何邦渐不是何鸣凤的父亲,而是伯父;何邦渐的生年、卒年,考取选贡的时间、任职的时间和情况等做了订正,并写出了何思明的小传.