究竟谁是惯性定律的发现者

介绍了笛卡儿以前人们对惯性定律的认识,阐述了笛卡儿及其同时代人对惯性定律的贡献以及牛顿对这一问题的总结。     

永不消失的白螺号——访藏学大师东噶·洛桑赤列先生

东噶·洛桑赤列教授是享誉国际国内的藏学家，国家级专家，曾担任中国藏学研究中心副总干事和西藏社会科学院名誉院长等行政职务，先后任中央民族大学藏学院、西藏大学文学院教授。在他长期的坎坷人生经历中，由一名农奴成为著名的藏传佛教活佛，由一名俄让巴密宗师转变为接受马克思主义的教授，成为著述等身的大师级学者。先后经历过新旧社会的变革，新旧文化的熏陶，他的学术思想在无数磨砺中闪闪发光，他的天资在特殊的文化环境中释放出无穷的能量，他的人品、治学精神，在学术领域永无止境的追求探索的精神和他留下的20多部学术著作，已经成为中华民族一笔宝贵的文化遗产。文章根据1984年冬至1997年2月之阍陆续采访的记录（手稿），主要对东噶·洛桑赤列先生的人生历程、研究成果、学术观点、治学精神等方面的内容进行了摘编。     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unit roots versus other types of time heterogeneity,parameter time dependence and superexogeneity

This paper stresses the restrictive nature of the standard unit root/cointegration assumptions and examines a more general type of time heterogeneity, which might characterize a number of economic variables, and which results in parameter time dependence and misleading statistical inference. We show that in such cases ‘operational’ models cannot be obtained, and the estimation of time‐varying parameter models becomes necessary. For instance, economic processes subject to endemic change can only be adequately modelled in a state space form. This is a very important point, because unstable models will break down when used for forecasting purposes. We also discuss a new test for the null of cointegration developed by Quintos and Phillips (1993), which is based on parameter constancy in cointegrating regressions. Finally, we point out that, if it is possible to condition on a subset of superexogenous variables, parameter instability can be handled by estimating a restricted system. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

加强中国革命史教学中的国情教育

本文就加强革命史教学中国情教育的战略意义,以及对怎样认识和把握国情,提出了一些想法。在此基础上,探讨了国情教育的基本内容和贯彻方法,来达到解决学生当前深层次认识问题的目的。     

绿色设计及其应用分析

对绿色设计的国际背景、含义、特点、关键技术及典型方法进行了较全面的介绍 ,对绿色设计在我国的应用策略和步骤进行了分析 ,最后 ,对绿色设计在轻工机械设计中的应用进行了展望     

自然观的转型

本文提出人类第一阶段的自然观是人类敬畏自然的自然观，人类考虑不到生命和环境会有系统地进化或衰退。这是客体高于主体的自然观；第二阶段的自然观是生命的进化观，认为持续进化的人类可以主宰自然，战胜自然，是主体高于客体的自然观；第三阶段是生命的诞生，发展到衰亡的全过程的自然观，是人类主动尊重自然规律的自然观，演化又回归了客体高于主体的自然观。     

价格战的运用与应对研究

随着我国市场化改革的不断深入，价格战已经逐渐成为许多企业主动或被动频繁使用的策略。从产品生命周期，产品组合策略，产品边际成本等方面分析了运用价格战应考虑的因素，同时提出了应对价格战的措施和价格战向价值战转变的建议。