西安地区全新世中期环境研究

根据CaCo3,Fe2O3和Al2O3含量、土壤微结构以及孢粉等方面的资料对西安地区的全新世古土壤和植被类型与气候特点进行了研究,结果表明,该地区全新世大暖期的古土壤为温湿气候条件下发育的淋溶褐土,并非过去所称的半干旱条件下发育的“黑垆土”。孢粉分析和古土壤底部之下分布浓度达2m多的密集根孔的存在表明该层古土壤发育时的植被类型是以栎为主的落叶阔叶林,可推测当时年降水量应不中于750mm,年均气温不低于14℃。     

甘肃黄土高原半湿润区4～10月降水气候特征分析

用EOF和REOF等方法,对甘肃黄土高原半湿润区全部26个站1971年～2000年4～10月农作活跃生长季降水进行分解,分析其空间分布特征和时间变化规律.结果表明,甘肃黄土高原半湿润区4～10月降水量,具有明显的空间差异,最少的是西北部永靖站为428.9 mm,最多的是东端正宁站为549.8 m,4～10月降水在由南向北依次递减的总体趋势下,以天水为界,其东西两侧的变化呈"八"字形相反趋势:陇东地区,从东南向西北依次递减;临夏州和临洮、渭源一线,总体上由西南向东北依次递减.EOF及REOF分解的结果更为复杂.其时间演变规律是:26站多年多站4～10月降水综合平均值,年际间变化振幅十分明显,最大值出现在1984 年为638.5 mm,最小值出现在1982年为346.7 mm,最大值是最小值的1.8倍多.20世纪70年代前期和90年代中后期为少雨时段,其余为相对多雨时段,90年代末以来,降水又有增加的趋势.就各年代各区域而言,70年代以庆城、宁县、华亭、清水一线为界,其以南以东低于多年平均,而以北以西高于多年平均;其中西部的东乡、广河也低于多年平均.而80年代研究区域整体均高于多年平均.90年代,整个区域均为负距平,尤其是其南部降水减少的更为明显.     

CMIP5模拟的平流层21世纪温度变化趋势

21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题, 使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果, 对2006-2100年间的平流层温度的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明, 臭氧恢复的增温效应在平流层低层起主导作用, 而温室气体增加的冷却效应在平流层高层起主导作用, 因此, 平流层低层(70 hPa 以下)呈变暖趋势, 而平流层中高层呈变冷趋势。通过对包含完整平流层的气候模式(高顶模式)和只包含部分平流层的气候模式(低顶模式)预估的温度趋势的差异进行分析, 发现高顶模式预估的变暖趋势大于低顶模式的结果, 这意味着模式是否包含完整平流层有可能对预估的平流层和对流层未来气候变化有重要影响。     

中国极端气候及东亚地区能量和水分循环研究的若干近期进展*

本文介绍了国家重点基础研究计划项目“全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响（2009-2013）”一年多来的若干主要科学进展,包括对于东亚不同典型下垫面能量和水分循环过程的新认识、中国极端气候事件的观测事实分析及其与能量和水分循环变异的联系、短期气候预测新方法以及中国未来气候变化预估等方面。最后概要介绍了项目后续的主要研究计划。     

从MWP看20世纪全球变暖

气候变暖已引起全球的广泛关注,正确的认识当前的气候变化已成为亟待解决的问题．目前的主流观点虽然认为近几十年的升温是由人类活动导致的,但许多学者发现MWP时期的气温与现代相当甚至更暖．结合国内外学者对MWP的研究,对比了MWP与现代暖期的温暖程度,指出20世纪暖期并不是过去千年最暖的世纪,现代升温可能只是气候冷暖波动中的一次自然现象,是uA过后的正常回暖．因此对MWP的认识对于人们深入认识当前全球变暖的性质和原因,具有十分重要的意义．     

Mineral deformation and subglacial processes on ice-bedrock interface of Hailuogou Glacier

Hailuogou Glacier is located in a warm and humid maritime environment. It is large and moves very fast. The bottom of the glacier slides intensively and the temperature at the bottom approaches the pressure melting point. Therefore, there are abundant melting water and debris which act as effective ＂grinding tools＂ for glacial abrasion. Polarizing microscope is used to observe the mineral deformation characteristics on the ice-bedrock interface. It is found that feldspar, quartz, hornblende and biotite are exposed to deformation, fracture and chemical alteration to various extents. Bending deformation is common for biotite, due to their lattice characteristics, and the bending orientations are mostly the same as the glacier flow. Bending deformation also occurs in a few hornblendes. High-angle tension fracture and low-angle shear fracture are common for quartz and feldspar, some of them are totally crushed （mylonizations） due to their rigidity. Thus, all the abrasion, quarrying, subglacial water action and subglacial dissolution processes at the bottom of the glacier are verified at the micro-scale level. Mineral deformation and fracture are the basic subglacial erosion mechanisms. The abrasion thickness is 30-90 μm for each time and the average is 50 μm. Most of the debris are silt produced by glacial abrasion. The extent of mineral deformation and fracture decreases drastically downwards beneath the bedrock surface. The estimated erosion rate is about 2.2-11.4 mm/a, which is similar to that of other maritime alpine glaciers, smaller than that of large-scale piedmont glaciers in Alaska （10-30 mm/a）, and larger than that of continental glaciers （0.1-1.0 mm/a）. The type and size of a glacier are the main factors that influence its erosion rate.     

气候变化对主要沿海城市的影响(英文)

气候变化给人类以及人类赖以生存的环境带来了诸多问题,例如风暴潮、飓风和台风.分析气候变化对沿海主要城市的影响具有重大意义.上海作为一个主要的沿海城市,正受到海平面上升的威胁,针对此问题,提出减小海平面上升对其影响的几个建议.     

基于区域气候模式与作物干旱模式嵌套技术的华北农业干旱监测预测

2002年和2003年在山东农业大学布置相关农学实验,利用便携式光合作用测定仪Licor-6400测定了冬小麦叶片光合作用速率等大量作物生理生态参数,建立了作物干旱模式,并连接区域气候模式相似文献   

不同气候年景中的作物合理布局

通过作物与气候条件的定量分析,探讨了江西省进贤县三里乡不同气候年景中旱地秋季作物的合理布局。     

The relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability

The long-term integration with the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences has been used in the investigations on the relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability. The results show that the strength of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation (THC) is negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Based on this kind of relationship, and also the instrument-measured climate record such as air pressure and sea surface temperature, the activity of the thermohaline circulation during the 20th century has been evaluated. The inferred variations of the strength of the THC is that, during two multi-decadal periods of 1867–1903 and 1934–1972, the THC is estimated to have been running stronger, whereas during the two periods of 1904–1933 and 1973–1994, it appears to have been weaker.