近50年来柴达木盆地升温与全球变暖

柴达木盆地地处亚欧大陆腹地，是亚洲大陆干极核心，处于中纬西风带和东亚季风系统的交界带，对气候变化极为敏感。本文利用柴达木盆地五个气象站的资料，分析柴达木盆地气温变化，发现盆地气温显著上升，近50年来上升了2℃左右，远远大于全球上世纪升温0．6℃～0．7℃的水平。笔者推测柴达木盆地深居青藏高原内陆，青藏高原对全球气候变化有很高的敏感性，不仅迅速地响应全球变化的信号，而且对某些信号和趋势起着放大作用，还可能通过各种正反馈过程，对全球气候变化产生重大影响。     

气候对青海省生态建设的影响

青海省的生态环境脆弱而又敏感，因此搞好生态环境建设势在必行，本文就环境建设过程中对气候与人类活动的相互影响进行分析的基础上，提出了一些具体建议。     

粤东红海湾海区波侯特征分析

利用遮浪海洋站3a的观测记录，对红海湾海域的波侯进行了分析。结果表明该海区的观测资料前后有差异。海区的波高比较符合两参数的Weibull分布，波浪周期符合对数-正态分布。该海区的波浪类型以风浪为主，其中大浪主要是由风暴引起。平均波周期和平均波高的方根的比例系数为3．87。波高1天滞后的自相关系数为0．42，不平静海面的平均延时符合指数形式。最后用日极值波高数据和二项一对数正态复合极值分布分析了该海区的重现期波高。     

High—resolution records of Holocene from the Shuangchi Maar Lake in Hainan Island

The results of sedimentary characteristics,grain-size,clay mineral,C/N and pollen analysis reveal the evolution history of the Shuangchi Maar Lake of Hainan Island as well as the short-term climate variations in tropical areas.It is testified that the Maar sediment system was sensitive in recording the rapid climate changes in the Holocene.These multidisciplinary results demonstrate that the thermal maximum in the Holocene climate lasted from 7200 to 2700 aBP,with serveral abrupt ephemeral vibrations occurring between 7250-6120aBP and at around 4460,3850 and 2700 aBP.In the late Holocent,particularly at -2700 aBP,a distinct environmental change indicating an important climate transition in the tropical eastern Asia was recorded,probably responding to the enhancement of ENSO phenomena in the Pacific Ocean.In addition,the high-resolution algae record clearly indicates periodical climate fluctuations at 500 a cyclicity during the last 2500 years.     

Development and improvement of mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its applications in the seasonal climate predication model

The features of Gregory cumulus parameterization scheme, which is used in British Weather Office, are researched and then this scheme is developed and improved according to the characteristics of area precipitation over China. Firstly, the influence of the large-scale convergence in lower tropopause upon cumulus convection is directly taken into account in a “bulk“ cloud model. The organized entrainment and detrainment is considered in the model. Secondly, the initial mass flux is revised. Thirdly, the effects of subcooling water upon saturation vapour pressure are considered. Eventually, the drown-draft air is regulated. For several years, the numerical forecast of seasonal precipitation in China has been carried out by using the modified Gregory scheme. The result shows that the model with improved Gregory scheme well simulates the precipitation over China and the prediction result is good.     

A mid-Holocene drought interval as evidenced by lake desiccation in the Alashan Plateau, Inner Mongolia, China

A warm and stable mid-Holocene climate has been considered to be the typical interglacial situation, in contrast to the last glacial period, and has commonly been used in global climatic modeling[1]. A recent study, however, has proposed that the mid-Holocene was possibly a period of particularly profound change in low latitudes, with land air temperature apparently declining across much of the globe, and with regional differences in precipitation[2]. Traditionally, the mid-Holocene in most p…     

Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research

A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification.     

15～19 世纪末期间广东的气候与灾害特征的初步探讨

从对广东有关史料记载等资料的整理分析人手，选取史料中1480—1940年间共460年的自然灾害记载，分别采用寒、暖年数统计法和湿润指数法建立不同的指标序列分析，认为，广东的小冰期开始于1480’s，结束于1890’s，其间有3次较为明显的冷期，分别出现于1480’s—1540’s，1610’s—1780’s。1830’s—1890’s，相邻冷期间为暖期，在不同的冷暖时期水热配置模式也不相同．在小冰期的不同时期具有不同的自然灾害特征，冷期内发生的灾害次数远多于暖期中发生的灾害次数．还收集整理了历史时期发生的厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件，并对其与广东气候及灾害特征的关系进行了初步的探讨。发现厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件的发生对广东各种自然灾害的发生影响不大，几者之间关系并不显著；拉尼娜事件对广东冬季气温则具有较大影响。     

台湾春雨对强ElNio事件的响应

根据台湾地区6个测站的51年(1950～2000年)逐月降水资料和美国NCEP／NCAR再分析资料．分析了台湾地区春季降水异常对1982年至1983年间、1997年至1998年间2次强El Nin^～o事件的响应特征。分析表明，台湾春季降水对强El Nin^～o事件有明显的响应，在强El Nin^～o年，台湾春季降水异常偏多。强El Nin^～o年的冬季和春季，南亚和我国华南高空出现强西风，且南支西风扰动活跃，导致华南地区及台湾地区冬春降水增多。在强El Nin^～o年的对流层低层，台湾东南侧太平洋上反气旋环流加强。导致台湾地区低层西南气流强盛，从而有利于台湾降水的增加。     

华北地区两千年来气候变化的初步研究

文章根据历史文献及相关研究 ,对华北地区气候变化的阶段性和区域内部在各阶段的旱涝分布差异进行研究 ,认为 :两千年来华北地区的气候变化大体上是稳定与不稳定交替发生 ,且第二个稳定时期里小冰期的气候波动是该区气候变化的突出特征 ,此后华北地区的气候系统重新进入一个比较稳定的时期 .