Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross‐section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从角色转换的角度看军校大学新生适应问题

军校大学新生面临着从“地方高中生”向“军校大学生”的角色转换任务，一些新学员心态转变较慢，迟迟不能进入“军校大学生”的角色，这正是他们容易出现适应问题的主要原因之一。因此，可以从帑助新学员正确认识新角色、树立角色意识、明确角色规范、养成角色性格、提高角色技能入手，促使新学员尽快进入“军校大学生”的角色，以促进适应问题的解决。     

The utilization of two‐metre Countryside Stewardship Scheme grass margins by the gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (L)

The utilization of 2‐m Countryside Stewardship Scheme (CSS) grass margins by Pyronia tithonus was investigated during the period 1997–2000 at three farms in Essex, UK. The aims of the research were to investigate whether 2‐m grass margins established using the CSS would provide suitable habitat for P. tithonus. Overall, there was no significant difference between P. tithonus abundance on the 2‐m grass margins and the control sections without margins, but significantly more P. tithonus were observed on the 2‐m grass margins in 2000 than in 1997. There was a strong relationship between P. tithonus abundance and the presence of hedgerows, and significantly more P. tithonus were recorded on 2‐m grass margins next to hedgerows than on 2‐m grass margins established in areas without adjacent hedgerows. It was suggested that P. tithonus would benefit most from habitats with 2‐m grass margins sown with a seed mixture containing a range of fine‐leaved grasses and wildflowers, next to a hedgerow, and managed in accordance with current practices.     

Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete Euler processes and their applications

This paper introduces discrete Euler processes and shows their application in detecting and forecasting cycles in non‐stationary data where periodic behavior changes approximately linearly in time. A discrete Euler process becomes a classical stationary process if ‘time’ is transformed properly. By moving from one time domain to another, one may deform certain time‐varying data to non‐time‐varying data. With these non‐time‐varying data on the deformed timescale, one may use traditional tools to do parameter estimation and forecasts. The obtained results then can be transformed back to the original timescale. For datasets with an underlying discrete Euler process, the sample M‐spectrum and the spectra estimator of a Euler model (i.e., EAR spectral) are used to detect cycles of a Euler process. Beam response and whale data are used to demonstrate the usefulness of a Euler model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

外国留学生跨文化适应状况调查———以浙江科技学院为例

随着一些高校推出国际化战略，争相招收外国留学生，留学生的跨文化适应问题理应引起重视。促进来华留学生的跨文化适应，对助其顺利完成学业、对所在学校的国际声誉及国际化战略的推进显得十分重要。以浙江科技学院为例，通过问卷调查，发现留学生的跨文化适应情况一般，他们的跨文化适应状况同其参与当地社会文化生活及获得社会支持情况呈正相关。据此，就促进留学生跨文化适应提出了一些意见和建议。     

大一新生应对方式与学校适应的关系

采用肖计划、许秀峰编制的应对方式调查问卷与周宗奎等编制的《大学新生学校适应量表》为研究工具，调查分析了兰州市229名大一新生的应对方式与学校适应的关系。结果发现：生活适应与解决问题和求助间存在显著的负相关，学习适应与求助、幻想、退避和合理化间存在显著的负相关，交往适应与幻想、退避和合理化间存在显著的负相关，情绪状况与解决问题存在显著的正相关，与幻想、自责、退避和合理化间存在显著的负相关。应对方式对大一新生的学校适应有一定的预测作用。