A Simple Linear Regression Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Rates

Observing that a sequence of negative logarithms of 1‐year survival probabilities displays a linear relationship with the sequence of corresponding terms with a time lag of a certain number of years, we propose a simple linear regression to model and forecast mortality rates. Our model assuming the linearity between two mortality sequences with a time lag each other does not need to formulate the time trends of mortality rates across ages for mortality prediction. Moreover, the parameters of our model for a given age depend on the mortality rates for that age only. Therefore, whether the span of the study ages with the age included is widened or shortened will not affect the results of mortality fitting and forecasting for that age. In the empirical testing, the regression results using the mortality data for the UK, USA and Japan show a satisfactory goodness of fit, which convinces us of the appropriateness of the linear assumption. Empirical illustrations further show that our model's performances of fitting and forecasting mortality rates are quite satisfactory compared with the existing well‐known mortality models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于变异系数的模糊物元模型评价阔叶十大功劳根不同提取部位的抗炎镇痛作用

为了筛选阔叶十大功劳根抗炎镇痛的有效部位，应用模糊物元模型对阔叶十大功劳根不同提取部位抗炎镇痛效果进行综合评价。采用醋酸扭体法、热水缩尾法及热板法，以小鼠足跖肿胀、耳廓肿胀程度考察阔叶十大功劳根不同提取部位的抗炎镇痛作用；用变异系数权重的模糊物元模型对其干预效果进行综合评价；通过计算贴近度比较模型组（M₁）、阳性对照组（M₂）、水提物组（M₃）、乙醇提取物组（M₄）、正丁醇提取物组（M₅）、乙酸乙酯提取物组（M₆）、石油醚提取物组（M₇）的抗炎镇痛效果。结果显示阔叶十大功劳根不同提取部位均有抗炎镇痛的效果，但各部位抗炎镇痛效果程度不同；反应不同部位抗炎镇痛总效应的贴近度值从大到小排序为M₆，M₄，M₃，M₅，M₂，M₇，M₁。基于变异系数权重的模糊物元模型可筛选出阔叶十大功劳根抗炎镇痛的最佳有效部位为乙酸乙酯提取部位，能够客观、科学地评价不同提取部位的抗炎镇痛效果。     

Baronia brevicornis caterpillars build shelters to avoid predation

In at least 18 Lepidoptera families, caterpillars build shelters that mainly serve to regulate microclimate (humidity, temperature) and/or to avoid predation. We aimed to explore the function of the tubular structures built with the leaves of the host plant, Acacia cochliacantha Humboldt and Bonpland ex Willdenow (Fabaceae), by a lepidopteran endemic to Mexico, Baronia brevicornis Salvin. We experimentally evaluated whether tubular structure building behaviour is induced by high temperature or predator odour, and if shelters reduce or enhance predation of B. brevicornis caterpillars. We used Calosoma angulatum as predator. Our analyses showed that caterpillars did not make the tubular structures in response to high temperature. We also found no difference in predators’ visual recognition of sheltered versus unsheltered caterpillars. Caterpillars did not build shelters but they moved more often when exposed to predator odour. Unsheltered caterpillars were more frequently consumed when predators were allowed to interact with sheltered and unsheltered caterpillars. Hence, the tubular structures built by B. brevicornis are most likely a strategy for reducing predation, for example by C. angulatum.     

Forecasting High‐Frequency Risk Measures

This article proposes intraday high‐frequency risk (HFR) measures for market risk in the case of irregularly spaced high‐frequency data. In this context, we distinguish three concepts of value‐at‐risk (VaR): the total VaR, the marginal (or per‐time‐unit) VaR and the instantaneous VaR. Since the market risk is obviously related to the duration between two consecutive trades, these measures are completed with a duration risk measure, i.e. the time‐at‐risk (TaR). We propose a forecasting procedure for VaR and TaR for each trade or other market microstructure event. Subsequently, we perform a backtesting procedure specifically designed to assess the validity of the VaR and TaR forecasts on irregularly spaced data. The performance of the HFR measure is illustrated in an empirical application for two stocks (Bank of America and Microsoft) and an exchange‐traded fund based on Standard & Poor's 500 index. We show that the intraday HFR forecasts capture accurately the volatility and duration dynamics for these three assets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

语用理论发展视角下的外语教学观

现代语用理论的新发展．为外语教学理论、方法和模式的变革提供了新的动力和依据。简述了代表现代语用学发展的语用关联理论、语用顺应论和模因论，并从关联、顺应和模因传播角度阐述了基于语用新理论的外语教学现。认为现代语用理论的新发展使我们更全面、更深刻地了解外语教学，有利于构建更完善的外语教学模式。     

Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time‐varying) non‐central co‐moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co‐moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ad Hoc网络中支持拥塞控制的速率自适应协议

Ad Hoc网络中节点需要竞争共享信道,容易使部分节点发生拥塞而丢弃部分分组,造成带宽资源浪费。为了更有效地利用Ad Hoc网络物理层的多速率能力,提出了一种支持拥塞控制的速率自适应协议,引入了可变发送窗口机制,接收节点根据信道质量选择可用的最高传输速率,并根据其队列拥塞程度控制发送端节点的发送窗口,发送节点按照发送窗口的大小连续发送多个数据帧。仿真结果表明,该协议能够充分利用信道条件,在网络重负载的条件下,饱和吞吐量提高80%,并能够调整拥塞节点的分组进出速率,有效地控制了网络拥塞。     

戏剧教育:学生心理健康及社会适应教育的有效方法和途径

学生心理健康已成为教育的一个严峻问题。而戏剧教育可以增强学生角色意识,发展自我意识;提高表达沟通能力,培养合作精神;完善学生人格,养成良好心理品质。通过问卷调查可知,学生参加戏剧活动较少者比之较多者,其焦虑、孤独、过敏、冲动倾向要强烈,存在更多的心理健康隐患,说明戏剧教育与心理健康之间存在密切关系。故戏剧教育有助于提高学生的心理素质和适应能力,是心理健康及社会适应教育的一种有效方法和途径。     

基于IEEE 802.11n自适应帧聚合机制的视频传输技术研究

首先介绍IEEE802.11n帧聚合机制的原理,随后分析帧聚合机制对视频传输性能的影响.仿真结果表明,采用帧聚合机制可以有效提高系统吞吐量,增加视频用户接入的数量.同时,提出一种自适应帧聚合机制,可根据信道状况通过动态改变聚合帧中子帧帧长以及重传次数来改善视频传输的性能,并通过仿真实验验证了其有效性.     

铁路减灾工作的系统评价方法研究

针对铁路减灾风险管理的需要 ,论文对铁路减灾工作的系统评价内容、难点、方法进行了论述.