关于人民币汇率问题的思考

文章分析了人民币在被迫升值过程中出现的一些与理论相矛盾的地方，并分析人民币是否真正被低估，进一步探讨了人民币被高估的原因并得出相应的结论。     

Sickle cell vasoocclusion: Many issues and some answers

The pathophysiology of sickle (SS) cell vasoocclusion is derived from the presence of hemoglobin S (HbS) which forms polymeric fibers in the deoxygenated state. Nevertheless, phenotypic expression of sickle cell disease (i.e., clinical severity) shows marked individual variations and is influenced by genetic modifiers such as epistatic effects of linked and unlinked genes. Furthermore, the polymerization of HbS is central but not the only event, and is more likely a consequence of disruptions of the steady state of flow. The available evidence indicates that the vasoocclusive crisis is a microcirculatory event in which multiple factors could be involved. We present a model of vasoocclusion as a two step process in which adhesion of deformable cells occurs first, followed by obstruction induced by less deformable SS cells. This review discusses, in addition, rheologic and microcirculatory behavior of SS erythrocytes and the interacting role of vascular factors, red cell heterogeneity, deoxygenation rates, and red cell-endothelial interactions in the pathophysiology of SS cell vasoocclusion.     

信息电磁泄漏侦收系统抗噪声性能研究

信息电磁泄漏侦收系统的抗噪声性能直接关系到系统整体性能。根据CRT显示器信息电磁泄漏机理及侦收系统工作原理,建立了信息电磁泄漏与侦收的数字信号基带传输模型,分别讨论了有、无码间干扰时侦收误码率与侦收距离、叠加次数、噪声功率的关系,利用Q函数描述了误码率的变化趋势。用所研制的侦收系统进行了实验,实验结果与理论分析一致性良好。     

鲢鱼副产物蛋白酶水解时间的确定及对产物的影响

本文通过试验证明,水解时间影响水解度和蛋白回收率．进一步从凝胶色谱分析中可以看出,肽分子的分布是连续的。随着水解时间的延长,水解程度提高,小肽分子的数量增多。     

药用植物丹参的传粉效率和结实率的研究

药用植物丹参Salvia miltiorrhiza Bge.在自然授粉中结实率约为80％,其花柱的授粉率较高,达到76％,为结实率的9.5倍。柱头上的平均花粉量为3－12个,但多数为来自自花的花粉,散粉期花粉活力较高,从不同处理下结实率实验看,丹参的有性繁殖主要依靠异花授粉,其自花授粉的结实率为0.6%。     

收益法中资本化率的确定

在房地产估价方法中,收益法是一种重要的方法,运用收益法的关键在于净收益和资本化率的确定。分析了收益法中求取资本化率常用的4种方法,提出了财务内部收益率在资本化率确定中的应用。     

针对山区输电线路防绕击雷性能的探讨

绕击是超高压、特高压输电线路雷击跳闸的主要原因,山区绕击跳闸率计算相对平原更为复杂。通过分析,在地面倾角和风速情况下对EGM电气几何模型进行了修正。根据实际算倒探讨了影响山区输电线路绕击率的不同因素,重点分析了因雷电先导入射角以及地面倾角变化对绕击率的影响。     

需求驱动的商品房价上涨实证分析

文章从"需求大于供给"的经验判断出发,借鉴国外经验,分析了中国商品房需求形成及其影响因素,并导出需求驱动的房价方程。依据2001—2007年的季度数据,运用误差修正模型分析需求驱动的房价上涨实质后发现:家庭可支配收入提高和商品房需求量增加是房价持续上涨的主要动力,购房贷款利率对房价的长短期波动都较弱;而扩大购房消费贷款规模抑制房价上涨的长期效应要小于短期的,可配合结构性供给增加,实施选择性信贷政策。     

Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short‐Run and Long‐Run Exchange Rate Expectations

We examine consistency properties of the exchange rate expectation formation process of short‐run and long‐run forecasts in the dollar/euro and yen/dollar market. Applying nonlinear consistency restrictions we show that in a simple expectation formation structure short‐run forecasts are indeed inconsistent with long‐run predictions. Moreover, we establish a ‘twist’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long‐run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange rate volatility. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Affine Term Structure Model with Macroeconomic Factors: Do No‐Arbitrage Restriction and Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts?

This study extends the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model for the inclusion of macroeconomic variables. Five macroeconomic variables are included in affine term structure model, derived under the arbitrage‐free restriction, to evaluate their role in the in‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample forecasting of the term structure. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and yield data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Moreover, the macroeconomic factors significantly improve the forecast performance of the model. The affine Nelson–Siegel type models outperform the benchmark simple time series forecast models. The out‐of‐sample predictability of the affine Nelson–Siegel model with macroeconomic factors for the short horizon is superior to the simple affine yield model for all maturities, and for longer horizons the former is still compatible to the latter, particularly for medium and long maturities. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.