缺失数据下局部M-估计的相合性和渐近正态性

在缺失响应变量的不完全数据下,对非参数回归模型进行研究,利用稳健的变窗宽局部线性回归的方法,给出了回归函数m(x)的估计,并证明了局部M-估计具有相合性和渐近正态性.所提出的方法继承了局部多项式回归的优点并且克服了最小二乘方法缺乏稳健性的缺点.并且使用变窗宽提高了所得M-估计的可塑性,使之能成功地处理空间非齐次曲线、异方差性及非均匀设计密度.所得估计的渐近结果为求渐近最优方案以及直接从数据估计最优变窗宽提供了理论基础.     

Approach to Weighted Geometric Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit

Weighted geometric evaluation approach based on Projection pursuit （PP） model is presented in this paper to optimize the choice of schemes. By using PP model, the multi-dimension evaluation index values of schemes can be synthesized into projection value with one dimension. The scheme with a bigger projection value is much better, so the schemes sample can be an optimized choice according to the projection value of each scheme. The modeling of PP based on accelerating genetic algorithm can predigest the realized process of projection pursuit technique, can overcome the shortcomings of large computation amount and the difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection pursuit methods, and can give a new method for application of projection pursuit technique to optimize choice of schemes by using weighted geometric evaluation. The analysis of an applied sample shows that applying PP model driven directly by samples data to optimize choice of schemes is both simple and feasible, that its projection values are relatively decentralized and profit decision-making, that its applicability and maneuverability are high. It can avoid the shortcoming of subjective weighing method, and its results are scientific and objective.     

Response of downstream sediment to water resource development in mainstream of the Lancang River

The impact of hydropower cascades of the Lancang River on downstream sedimentation has become one of the key problems in the research of the transboundary water resource development and its possible environmental effects. In this paper, the newest sediment data series spanning 17 years （1987-2003） at Yunjinghong hydrometric station and Chiang Saen hydrometric station, in northern Thailand, are analyzed to reveal these effects. Monthly mean sediment concentration data of the two stations are compared in-phase and yearly series are analyzed by the method of correlation and regression analysis and causality test. The analysis result shows that, though both of them are located at lower reaches of Manwan and Dachaoshan hydropower stations which are already constructed and in use, the sediment responses of the two stations are different under the regulation of the hydropower stations Annual series at Yunjinghong station are positively correlated but do not match well with those at Chiang Saen station. In addition, the results of Granger causality test on the time series also suggest that the series of maximum monthly mean sediment concentration of the Yunjinghong station each year may give cause for the ones of Chiang Saen station, while the series of minimum monthly mean sediment concentration each year and annual mean sediment concentration of Yunjinghong do not evidently give cause for the ones of the other station. Undoubtedly, this discovery will provide new evidences to assess the impacts of cascades construction in mainstream of the Lancang River on the variation of downstream sediment and its transboundary effects.     

关于改进的支持向量机的研究

支持向量机是一种基于统计学习理论和对偶理论的分类和函数估计方法,其推广能力强和全局最优的特点引起了学者的广泛关注。本论文对目前所提出的各类改进的支持向量机进行了初步的研究和分析。     

烟尘水热化合反应制备钙基脱硫剂工艺优化

运用均匀试验设计和回归分析方法优化烟尘水热化合反应制备钙基脱硫剂工艺,得到比表面积回归方程．分析不同水热条件及其相互作用对钙基脱硫剂比表面积的影响,经优化筛选并兼顾实际操作得到最佳水热条件,制备的高效钙基脱硫剂比表面积超过120 m2/g,是单一Ca(OH)2的10倍以上,优化效果显著,可以为工业生产提供依据．     

利用调查数据中完全辅助信息的广义模型校正方法

推广了模型校正方法去估计总体和均值以外的总体参数.建议的模型校正估计可以处理任何线性或非线性的工作模型,且在线性模型的情形下变为广义回归估计.通过Kronecker积,可把模型校正方法用于估计双线性参数,特别地,去估计方差和协方差.     

多气体传感器信号样条回归分析

回归分析研究某一变量和其他有关变量的依赖关系 ,它利用观测数据建立变量之间的回归模型 ,并做出预报和控制 .目前 ,回归分析已广泛应用于工程、经济、金融、生物和医学等领域 .将样条回归分析方法用于电子鼻系统中多气体传感器信号的信息处理 ,针对牛肉样本建立了牛肉新鲜度样条回归模型 ,并对该模型进行了回归分析 ,给出了牛肉新鲜度预报值和估计区间 .研究结果表明 ,样条回归分析适用于电子鼻系统在牛肉新鲜度检测中的信息处理     

轴对称荷载作用下环形薄板大挠度样条函数解法

环形薄板的大挠度计算因为边界条件复杂，仅有少数特殊情形的数值解答．这些解均是利用摄动法以某点挠度为摄动参数得到的结果。当这点挠度较大或为零，将出现难以解决的困难，作者以三次B样条函数为试函数，用配点法计算环形薄板的大挠度．荷载可为均布荷载、边缘均布线荷载、边缘均布力矩及它们的组合，在所有的算例中均取得了收敛的数值结果。在均布荷载、边缘均布线荷载、边缘均布力矩作用下的计算结果同摄动法的计算结果作了比较，结果表明，样条函数的方法收敛范围大、精度高和计算时间少。     

生态系统数学模型的拟合程度

定义了回归方程的拟合程度.对非线性回归方程,要化为线性方程,用相关系数、显著性水平、残余标准差率来检查回归方程和拟合程度.