A spectral model based on atmospheric self-memorization principle

Based on the atmospheric self-memorization principle, a complex memory function was introduced and the spectral form of atmospheric self-memorial equation was derived. Setting up and solving the equation constitute a new approach of the numerical weather prediction. Using the spectral model T42L9 as a dynamic kernel, a global self-memorial T42 model (SMT42) was established, with which twelve cases of 30-d integration experiments were carried out. Compared with the T42L9, the SMT42 is much better in 500 hPa forecast not only for daily circulation but also for monthly mean circulation. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of forecast for monthly mean circulation has been improved to 0.42, increased by 0.05, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) has been reduced from 6.09 to 4.03 dagpm.     

华中电网用电量与气候的变化及其相关性诊断分析

利用华中电网４省１９８６￣１９９４年逐月全社会用电量、居民生活用电量及同期气候资料研究表明：１）４省气候变化趋势一致即年变化小但季节变化大;２）ｅ１,ｅ２均呈线性增加趋势,冬夏增加最快,ｅ２的相对增长比ｅ１的相对增长快近１倍;３）河南省各季两项气象（影响）用电量与气温均为正相关,与雨量均为负相关,其余３省与气温大多为负相关;４）气温对气象（影响）用电量的影响大于雨量的影响;最后分析了两项气象（影响     

关于西宁市基准地价与土地使用权出让金的构成分析

通过对西宁市基准地价构成的分析，从土地成本的角度分析了土地使用权出让金的内涵，构成和具体操作过程中国有土地出让，新增建设地出让及招标和拍卖三种情况的出让金计算办法，最后根据西宁市目前地价水平分别提出商业用地，住宅用地和工业用地的土地使用权出让金收取标准。     

The climatic variations and development of yellow soil in Beibei since the Holocene epoch

ＴｈｅｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｙｅｌｌｏｗｓｏｉｌｉｎＢｅｉｂｅｉｓｉｎｃｅｔｈｅＨｏｌｏｃｅｎｅｅｐｏｃｈＦｕＷａｌｉ，ＬｕＤｅｒｅｎ，ＬｉｕＺｏｎｇｑｕｎ，ＸｕＭａｏｑｉ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧｅｏ...     

隐蔽油藏保存条件研究

影响油藏保存的地质因素主要包括风化剥蚀、差异性抬升和断裂活动.构造油藏由于区域性整体抬升,导致盖层的风化剥蚀,降低了油气的封盖能力.地层油藏的储层和盖层发生了一定程度的倾斜后,相当于其上覆盖层厚度增大,相同的剥蚀量对地层油藏的破坏程度小于构造油藏.岩性透镜体和上倾尖灭油藏多为自生自储型岩性油藏,往往发育在较深的部位,四周被生油岩所包裹,受到构造抬升而遭受剥蚀的程度更弱.对隐蔽油藏而言,差异升降只是造成油藏产状的变化,其中的油气没有因为差异升降而受到破坏.对于构造油藏而言,油气藏形成后,由于差异升降区域倾斜,油气沿抬升了的溢出点外溢,容易造成油藏的破坏.断裂活动可破坏盖层的连续性与完整性,进而影响油藏的保存.当断裂作用只是在一个油藏内部发生,可以使得油气由下部油层向上散失,结果造成油气由一个油层分为多个油层含油.由于岩性油藏大多发育在构造活动较弱的部位,深大断裂一般不发育,断裂活动不会影响到隐蔽油藏的保存.因此,从总体上讲隐蔽油藏的保存条件优于构造油藏.     

浅谈风云二号卫星产品在地市气象台的解释应用

介绍了可见光云图、水汽云图、云迹风(云导风)、黑体亮度温度(TBB)和射出长波辐射(OLR)等几种常用的风云二号卫星产品在天气预报业务中的应用,以提高地市气象台预报员对风云二号卫星产品的解释应用能力。     

空间天气研究的主要科学问题

空间天气指太阳、行星际空间和地球空间(地球磁层、电离层和热层)的状态及其变化,它能够影响到天基和地基技术系统的运行和可靠性,危及人类的生存.空间天气计划包括观测和资料分析,研究和数值建模,预报和服务.本文评述了空间天气研究的主要科学问题.     

关于中国气象频道本地化的思考

中国气象频道在各省顺利落地,实现气象频道本地化是摆在省级气象影视中心面前的重点课题。以山西省在气象频道本地化方面所做的工作和设想为切入点,从内容策划和节目落地等方面进行了详细阐述。     

Regional Prediction of Impending Debris Flow Based on Doppler Weather Radar

Debris flow prediction is one of the important means to reduce the loss caused by debris flow. This paper built a regional prediction model of impending debris flow based on regional environmental background （including topography, geology, land use, and etc.）, rainfall and debris flow data. A system of regional prediction of impending debris flow was set up on ArcGIS 9.0 platform according to the model. The system used forecast precipitation data of Doppler weather radar and observational precipitation data as its input data. It could provide a prediction about the possibility of debris flow one to three hours before it happened, and was put into use in Liangshan Meteorological Observatory in Sichuan province in the monsoon of 2006.     

雷达估测降水模拟史灌河流域径流

运用雷达联合少量雨量计方法估测流域面雨量,结合GAME/HUBEX国际合作项目1998年加强观测期在史灌河流域获取的水文观测资料和TOPMODEL进行降水径流模拟,并与稠密雨量计站网测量的面雨量进行流域出口流量模拟的对比试验.在1500小时时间序列的比较试验表明,雷达估测面雨量和雨量计测量的面雨量都能较好地模拟每小时流域出口蒋集的出流量,数值试验还表明,雷达估测面雨量在某一时段上的均值误差作为一个指标可以较好地反映其应用于降水径流模拟时的精度;总雨量和强降水的估测精度是雷达估测面雨量能否用于径流模拟的关键.