Artificial Neural Network for Combining Forecasts

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伸缩方程Lpc解的讨论

研究一般扩张矩阵伸缩方程L^pc解的性质，相同分形中的选代函数系统构造tile和tiling性质，克服了通用方法中的不足，得到了这类方程存在紧支撑解的充要条件，从而推广了有关的结果．     

渐近线性二阶Hamilton系统的非平凡周期解

利用极小极大方法得到了一类渐近线性二阶Hamilton系统的非平凡周期解的存在性结果。     

森林面积分布系统的最优控制存在性问题

本文研究森林面积分布系统的最优控制问题。本文将林木总和长消率作为控制变量，以“范数最小”来衡量其最优性，利用空间Ｌ＾２（０，Ｔ）Ｔ〉０的自反、光滑和严格凸性，给出了森林面积分布系统最优控制的一个存在性定理。     

Methodological foundations of systems methodologies

In social systems science generally, and in management science particularly, recent developments in the variety of types of specific problem-solving methodologies (under the rubric of hard and soft systems approaches) have given an impetus to a line of inquiry, as well as debate on the nature of those methodologies. On the one hand, there has been the view that what we are witnessing is a form of Kuhnian crisis. On the other hand, a complementarist view of developments has been argued and a contingency approach proposed. But one thing has been common among the competing views: a belief that the prospects for further advances in the design and application of those methodologies, and in resolving the current controversies, lie in serious attempts to reconsider and clarify the underlying metatheoretical assumptions and concerns. This paper is an attempt to contribute to such an endeavor. A brief exposition of three methodological foundations (namely, empiricism, hermeneutics, and critique) is made, not only with the purpose of highlighting the nature as well as the limits of their epistemological and ethical claims, but also as a basis for illuminating both the nature of contemporary work on systems inquiry, design, and problem solving and the ongoing debate on what constitutes appropriate criteria for choice of specific methodologies.     

“变截面管中跨声速气流”一文引理的证明

本文对T·P·Liu教授关于“变截面管中跨声速气流”一文的关键性引理给出一个清楚的证明,以使这篇有影响的开创性论文更加完美。     

迟后型时滞控制系统的稳定判断及稳定条件(下)

本文旨在把判断低阶时滞系统稳定性的“截点法”推广到高阶迟后型时滞系统的稳定性判断。文中具体分析了三阶时滞系统的稳定条件,并用计算机模拟证实了有关结论的正确性。此外,本文还提出了判断时滞系统不存在渐近稳定性质的基本理论及无渐近稳定的充分条件。     

太湖流域超标特大洪水风险预警系统建设及应用

为做好超标洪水调度、保障流域防洪安全,开发建设了由基于水文水动力学耦合的超警超保风险区域预警模型与基于水文学法的洪水淹涝风险快速评估模型共同组成的超标特大洪水风险预警系统,该系统在太湖流域预报调度一体化系统中通过智能交互方式进行模型与系统的紧密集成,实现了预报调度成果的可视化。基于水利一张图的超警超保与淹涝动态展示,实现了预报产品从点到面、从常规预报到影响预测的突破,以及洪水风险由静态评估向实时快速动态分析的转变。应用结果表明：系统在2020年太湖流域性大洪水中累计发布超警超保风险提示39期、洪水淹涝风险评估4期,预测结果与实际基本一致,为科学调度防御超标洪水提供了技术支撑,避免了江苏省苏州市3万多的人员转移,有力保障了太湖流域防洪安全。     

Hammerstein系统遗忘因子有限窗口分解辨识

提出一种带遗忘因子和分解辨识策略的有限数据窗口递归最小二乘Hammerstein系统辨识方法。针对Hammerstein系统具有耦合参数的问题,将Hammerstein系统分解为2个子系统：一个子系统包含线性子系统参数,另一个子系统包含非线性子系统参数;提出一种基于遗忘因子的有限窗口递归最小二乘方法对分解模型进行在线递归估计;仿真示例验证了所提算法能够快速跟踪参数,实现对Hammerstein系统的精确辨识。     

A user designer-based systems methodology

This paper develops the argument that in organizational redesign it is desirable to utilize user-designers as the architects for the redesign. A methodology is developed which emphasizes the use of ideal systems models by user-designers to plan for the organization's future. The methodology involves the creation of an ideal system model, then an analysis of the present system through the creation of root definitions and process models of the existing system. Then root definitions and process models for the idealized system are created. Finally, the two are compared and desirable changes are generated which bring the existing system toward the idealized.