Neural network structure identification in inflation forecasting

Neural networks (NNs) are appropriate to use in time series analysis under conditions of unfulfilled assumptions, i.e., non‐normality and nonlinearity. The aim of this paper is to propose means of addressing identified shortcomings with the objective of identifying the NN structure for inflation forecasting. The research is based on a theoretical model that includes the characteristics of demand‐pull and cost‐push inflation; i.e., it uses the labor market, financial and external factors, and lagged inflation variables. It is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on the estimated 90 feedforward NNs (FNNs) and 450 Jordan NNs (JNNs), which differ in variable parameters (number of iterations, learning rate, initial weight value intervals, number of hidden neurons, and weight value of the context unit), the mean square error (MSE), and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are calculated for two periods: in‐the‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Ranking NNs simultaneously on both periods according to either MSE or AIC does not lead to the selection of the ‘best’ NN because the optimal NN in‐the‐sample, based on MSE and/or AIC criteria, often has high out‐of‐sample values of both indicators. To achieve the best compromise solution, i.e., to select an optimal NN, the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used. Comparing the optimal FNN and JNN, i.e., FNN(4,5,1) and JNN(4,3,1), it is concluded that under approximately equal conditions, fewer hidden layer neurons are required in JNN than in FNN, confirming that JNN is parsimonious compared to FNN. Moreover, JNN has a better forecasting performance than FNN.     

毛细管区带电泳法测定白藜芦醇与白藜芦醇苷

建立了以苄基三甲基碘化铵为内标测定白藜芦醇和白藜芦醇苷的毛细管区带电泳方法,在优化的分离条件下,两者在7 min内可基线分离,检出限均为1.25×10-4g/L,线性动态范围分别是4.88×10-4g/L~0.31 g/L和5.37×10-4g/L~0.34 g/L,样品的加标回收率为95.44%和97.75%.     

热镀5%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的腐蚀行为

开展了热镀5%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的实海腐蚀测试,并利用电化学测试、失重腐蚀测试和扫描电镜首次研究了镀层的海水腐蚀行为.结果表明,由于腐蚀电流密度小,腐蚀产物具有保护性,镀层在全浸区表现出较好的耐蚀性能;镀层在潮差区出现不同程度的生物污损,而比较充分的充气条件又促进了镀层的氧化,其腐蚀速度比全浸区明显降低;镀层在飞溅区未出现生物污损,耐蚀性能最好,可能与良好的充气条件和腐蚀产物层的阻挡作用有关.镀层在飞溅区和潮差区的耐蚀性比全浸区分别提高197%和183%;但在全浸区和潮差区,镀层有局部腐蚀倾向.     

热镀55%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的腐蚀行为

开展了热镀55%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的实海腐蚀测试,并利用电化学测试、失重腐蚀测试和扫描电镜首次研究了镀层的海水腐蚀行为.结果表明,由于腐蚀电流密度小,腐蚀产物具有保护性,55%铝-锌镀层在全浸区的耐蚀性能比镀锌层和5%铝-锌镀层好;由于保护性锌的腐蚀产物被滞留在富铝的枝晶网络中,充分的充气条件又促进了镀层富铝相的钝化,镀层腐蚀的传质过程受到明显抑制,所以55%铝-锌镀层在潮差区和飞溅区的耐蚀性能显著优于全浸区,是全浸区的2到3倍;值得注意的是,镀层在全浸区出现较严重的局部腐蚀.     

The landing zone – Ground for model transfer in chemistry

This essay proposes a new notion - the landing zone - in order to identify conceptual features that allow modelers to transfer mathematical tools across disciplinary borders. This discussion refers to the transferable models as ‘templates’. Templates are functions, equations, or computational methods that are capable of being generalized from a particular subject matter. There are formal and conceptual prerequisites for the transfer of a template to a new domain. A landing zone is an ontology that contributes to the satisfaction of these conditions for successful transfer. This paper presents a case study on a model in chemistry - the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) - that makes use of transferred templates from physics - the virial theorem and the wave function. The landing zone in this case is a new ontological notion, that of the topological atom, which prepares ground for the use of the virial theorem and the wave function in chemistry. The virial theorem requires that there exists in-principle stability to the system that it represents, and the wave function requires transformation in its representation that is justified. The ontology of QTAIM - the landing zone for these templates - grounds the scientific use of these templates in the context of chemistry.     

基于背景插值的空空导弹攻击区在线模拟方法

针对空战态势迅速变化对空空导弹攻击区模拟实时性的需求,提出基于背景插值的攻击区在线模拟方法。首先预测下一采样时刻态势,并针对预测态势模拟解算攻击区信息;当下一采样时刻到来时,利用攻击区预测值和先前两次攻击区模拟信息及相应的态势记录插值估计攻击区真实值。背景插值方法将攻击区模拟解算放到先前计算周期中,实时性高。理论分析证明了背景插值误差随着采样时间的减小收敛于零。仿真结果表明,背景插值模拟方法的误差与传统攻击区模拟方法相当,而前者平均可在7.16×10^-6s内给出结果,后者平均计算耗时为0.290 s。     

考虑断裂过程区的混凝土Ⅰ-Ⅱ复合型断裂判据研究

根据以前的混凝土Ⅰ-Ⅱ复合型断裂实验资料,同时采用数值模拟实验的方法,基于双K断裂准则,分别计算了混凝土Ⅰ-Ⅱ复合型断裂试件失稳断裂破坏时,断裂过程区影响的临界有效裂缝长度ac及应力强度因子KⅠ、KⅡ。根据分析计算结果,建立了考虑断裂过程区的新的Ⅰ-Ⅱ复合型断裂K判据,并与课题组以前的K判据作了分析比较。     

菲涅耳波带片衍射产生的光谱奇异现象

研究高斯型光谱的完全空间相干光经菲涅耳波带片后,远场轴上点的光谱奇异现象.结果表明,在相位奇异点处,高斯型光谱一分为二,出现光谱开关现象.在相位奇异点附近,一些点处的光谱发生蓝移,而另一些点处的光谱发生红移.这些光谱奇异现象与观测点位置有关,光谱开关总是发生在光强为极小值处.分析和比较几种菲涅耳波带片的光谱奇异现象,以及其光强分布情况.     

沿岸回流区污染物对流扩散的数值模拟

为研究回流区污染物堆积的机理及规律,采用高阶三点紧致差分格式对涡量-流函数方程和污染物对流扩散方程进行高精度数值求解,得到了污染物堆积与回流区岸线角度、排放点位置之间的定量关系.该方法有效抑制了通常的数值方法中对流项差分离散造成数值不稳定的现象,且程序编制简洁,运行效率高。数值计算表明该法有效、可靠.研究结果对沿岸排污点布置、减少海域污染具有一定的现实指导意义,并具有重要的理论价值.     

Three noteworthy mirine plant bugs inhabiting subalpine zones of the Nepalese Himalayas (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Miridae: Mirinae)

Three unique mirine plant bugs inhabiting typical subalpine vegetation in the Nepalese Himalayas are documented, with their confirmed plant associations. A new genus and new species, Khumbumiris schwartzi, is diagnosed and described, based on a male specimen collected from Abies spectabilis; two additional new species, Lygocoris laligurans (associated with Rhododendron shrubs) and Phytocoris sagarmathanus (Abies spectabilis), are also described. Images of the habitats and live individuals are also provided. The tribal placement of Khumbumiris is discussed in detail.

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