Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高校财务监督体系的变革与完善

为适应知识经济时代的要求，高校财务监督体系必须进行变革和完善。本文就这一课题，分别从当前所面临的新形势，高校财务监督体系变革和完善的举措以及应该注意的一些问题做了阐述。     

对兰州市中学生运动损伤的调查与分析

对兰州市第一中学、第十中学、第十四中学的部分学生参加体育运动时运动损伤发生的时问、类型、项目、原因等进行了调查统计与分析，结果表明，运动损伤率与场地器材、准备活动和学生自身的技术、素质等因素有关，因此，提出了运动损伤的预防措施和处理方法。     

Millikan′s油滴实验数据处理透析

本文从误差传递的角度出发，代入合理的数据，来说明目前高校实验中对此内容的数据处理的问题所在以及应怎样采取措施解决。     

论GIS模糊不确定性以及处理方法探讨

论述了GIS模糊不确定性的认识，介绍了不确定性的相关概念，阐述了GIS的模糊不确定性，及其处理方法。     

水库闸坝自动化监控系统浅析

水库闸坝自动化监控系统对于提高闸坝的运行管理水平和组建流域水文调度系统具有重要作用。该系统具有远程控制与调节能力、大坝安全检测系统及自动监控系统，为水库的安全运行提供有力的保障。     

砂质泥岩工程地质特性及其灾害防治对策

文章阐述了砂质泥岩的工程地质特性及其风化规律，在不同状态下形成的灾害，提出了防治对策。     

证券投资基金持股的风险特征实证研究

使用股票的平均收益、CAPM风险测度(β值)和传统风险测度(标准差、偏度和峰度)对我国证券投资基金在2000～2002年期间的投资决策进行了实证分析．结果表明，在这3年中，基金的持股比重与股票的卢值具有不显著的相关性，而与股票的标准差、偏度和峰度之间的相关性则比较显著，这表明了基于个股属性的传统风险测度对基金经理的投资决策起着重要作用，而CAPM理论是否得到基金经理的广泛运用还有待于进一步论证．     

应用不定量凸模型的遗传算法解决结构设计的优化问题

针对不定静载荷和由不定搜索而产生的最不利情况 ,应用遗传算法来解决桁架的优化问题。说明了在考虑不定量的结构设计优化问题中 ,应用遗传算法实现的高效性。     

FROM MANUFACTURING SCHEDULING TO SUPPLY CHAIN COORDINATION：THE CONTROL OF COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY

With time-based competition and rapid technology advancements, effective manufacturingscheduling and supply chain coordination are critical to quickly respond to changing marketconditions. These problems, however, are difficult in view of inherent complexity and variousuncertainties involved. Based on a series of results by the authors, decomposition and coordination byusing Lagrangian relaxation is identified in this paper as an effective way to control complexity anduncertainty.A manufacturing scheduling problem is first formulated within the job shop context withuncertain order arrivals, processing times, due dates, and part priorities as a separable optimizationproblem. A solution methodology that combines Lagrangian relaxation, stochastic dynamicprogramming, and heuristics is developed. Method improvements to effectively solve large problemsare also highlighted. To extend manufacturing scheduling within a factory to coordinate autonomicmembers across chains of suppliers, a decentralized supply chai