Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于乌河东煤层气东参1井钻探施工技术的探讨

文章阐述了乌鲁木齐河东煤层气东参1井钻探工作的完成情况。     

转向概率对平面环行交叉路口交通流的影响

从道路结构出发,建立了具有内、外环道的平面环形交叉路口元胞自动机模型,研究了转向概率对平面环行交叉路口交通流的影响.计算机模拟结果表明.各车道的交通流在转向概率影响下呈现出不同的特点.转向概率均在一定的系统密度区域内对车道的交通流存在影响.     

Studies of layout of world machine tools industry based on patent analysis

As the foundation of an industrialized country nowadays, machine tools industry is regarded as the engine of industrial development of a country. The developed countries, such as USA, Germany and Japan, have widely deployed the technology of using the patent in order to keep their strength in various fields. This research examins the CNC machine tools industry in the world by using the pa- tent analysis method. It first gives an overview about the world patent application in CNC machine tools industry from 1963 to 2010 and divides the development of the industry into five stages. It also lists the patent application of the world top 20 countries, where the top 5 countries are compared. The patents of the world top 10 companies of machine tools manufacturers are mapped according to the international patent classification （IPC）, and the future trends of world machine tools industry are discussed. Finally conclusions and suggestions are presented.     

MIS系统分析的实践与研究

木文根据作者近年来从事MIS开发的实践和体会,从系统工程的观点出发,提出了MIS系统分析的模型,介绍了目前被广泛应用于MIS系统分析中的工具,并就如何实现MIS系统分析支撑环境(MIS-SASE)提出了探索性的意见.     

履带车辆软地转向性能理论分析

建立了一个履带车辆软地稳态转向模型,模型中考虑到了车辆沉陷、纵向倾角等因素;对模型参数进行了数值计算,并以此分析了土壤、车辆结构诸多参数对转向性能的影响.     

车削用量的优化选择

本文对车削加工建立了切削用量优化选择的数学模型,并运用分层复合形法编制了优化程序,为利用计算机快速、可靠地选择使生产率最高或加工成本最低的最优车削用量提供了一个有效的方法。     

新型木工螺旋刨刀设计方面注记

本文根据新型木工螺旋刨刀生产中提出的设计问题,给出了计算公式及其依据,为新型木工螺旋刨刀的实际制造提供了依据。     

带有转向点的奇摄动Robin边值问题

本文对一类带有转向点的非线性常微分方程奇摄动Robjn边值问题证明了解的存在性并给出了解的近似估计,特别地,在拟线性情形给出了解及其导数的一致有效渐近展开。     

计算机在自动控制中的应用

本文介绍了计算机自动控制的概念,综述了计算机在自功控制几个主要方面的应用.